Remember that paradigm shift that was coming in fantasy football? Draft receivers, they’re safer. And for the love of all that is holy, please avoid aging running backs — they’re just too risky.
Well, throw it all in the shredder, at least for 2024. In this current fantasy landscape, up is down, down is up and dogs and cats are best friends.
Let’s have some fun with the running back leaderboard from Week 9. Derrick Henry, old guy — he’s the RB3 with 25.8 fantasy points and just SNF and MNF left to play. Alvin Kamara, old guy — he’s at RB4 (24.5 points). Saquon Barkley leads the position in scoring (31.4 points) with touchdowns through the air and on the ground. Joe Mixon did his usual thing (over 100 yards, a touchdown, 16.6 points) in the loss to the Jets on Thursday.
Henry is two months from his 31st birthday. Kamara is 29. Barkley’s in his seventh NFL season, age 27. It’s season No. 8 for Mixon, age 28.
Fantasy analysts generally don’t agree on much, but Henry was pretty close to universally praised and targeted all summer. The reasons were pretty simple — Baltimore always has a strong offensive infrastructure and the rushing presence of Lamar Jackson will open up lanes. And for as athletic as Jackson is, he generally doesn’t steal too many of the rushing touchdowns for himself.
Henry’s first Baltimore season has been that rare combination of weekly upside and floor. He’s scored a touchdown in all nine of his games. This week will be the seventh time he’s cracked the top 10 at the position. Even with some tricky matchups on the horizon — including both Pittsburgh games — I don’t see what’s going to stop Henry. And keep in mind, his career trend says that he’s usually more effective as we get deeper into the season.
Henry collected 133 total yards and two touchdowns — pushing him over 100 career rushing scores — in the 41-10 laugher over Denver on Sunday. Jackson only needed to throw 19 times, but he completed 16 of them, good for 280 yards and three touchdowns. Zay Flowers finally broke through with some touchdowns, scoring twice on a 5-127-2 afternoon.
When Henry, Jackson and Flowers are on point, there isn’t a lot of room for anyone else. Mark Andrews drew just two targets Sunday; Rashod Bateman had four. Diontae Johnson played about a third of the snaps and ran six routes on 22 dropbacks. I know this might sound wild, but I wonder if his fantasy value was better in Carolina. He’ll grow into a bigger Baltimore role eventually, but there’s a lot of completion for the ball here.
Kamara continues to race towards a career-high in touches. He had a ridiculous 35 handles in the loss at Carolina, 29 rushes and six catches — making 215 yards on that workload. Taysom Hill vultured a touchdown, but Kamara managers will happily take this line. But we have to wonder how well Kamara will withstand the pounding. His seasonal high for touches is 287, three years ago. After Sunday, he’s at 196 through nine games.
Of course, the Saints don’t have much else to rely on. Breakout receiver Rashid Shaheed is out for the year. Chris Olave suffered a scary concussion Sunday. There isn’t another impactful running back on the roster. Alas, New Orleans has to come up with something. After the splashy 2-0 start to the season back in September — blowout wins over Carolina and Dallas — the Saints have now dropped seven games in a row.
Will the paper bags be out when New Orleans hosts Atlanta next week?
With all due respect to the older backs, let’s tip the cap to the current No. 2 back in Week 9 — that’s Miami sophomore De’Von Achane with 28.1 fantasy points. He had 20 touches for 121 total yards and two scores in the loss at Buffalo, including an 8-58-1 line in the passing game (catching all targets). Tua Tagovailoa still hasn’t completely rekindled things with Tyreek Hill (4-80-0, five targets) and Jaylen Waddle (minus-4 yards, but a touchdown). Achane is the obvious lynchpin of this Miami offense.
Joe Burrow currently has the Week 9 yellow jersey at quarterback, a five-touchdown jamboree over the Raiders. Alas, none of the scores went to Ja’Marr Chase (7-43-0), though it wasn’t for a lack of effort (11 targets). Mike Gesicki clicked as a tight end sleeper (5-100-2), Chase Brown caught a touchdown and Drew Sample and Andrei Iosivas scored, keeping each other company on most waiver wires in America.
Sometimes the touchdown trolls come out to play. Josh Allen had three touchdown passes in the win over Miami, and they went to Ray Davis (a nice player, and an add to make, but a backup), Mack Hollins and Quintin Morris (on the 11th catch of his career). Some things are simply impossible to predict. It’s interesting to see Allen downshifting as a runner — he scrambled for just seven yards Sunday, and he has just three rushing touchdowns after gobbling up 15 last year.
Note: I’ll have additional Week 9 analysis as the day unfolds.
