Another week, another round of crucially important start/sit decisions. To help you make them, here’s a look at six players with bust potential in Week 4.
Something to keep in mind as you’re reading: a “fade” or “bust” designation doesn’t automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or available options on your waiver wire.
Jared Goff has been off to a disappointing start this season, yet to manage anything better than a QB18 finish. His 2.8% touchdown rate so far marks the second-lowest of his career, while his 3.8% interception rate is a career high through the first three weeks of the season. His slow start has been particularly surprising considering his opening schedule, which features 10 indoor games through the first 12 weeks of the season.
This week, the Lions will host the Seattle Seahawks, whose Mike Macdonald defense is shining through the first three weeks. In all fairness, it’s been against some less-than-worthy opponents (Broncos, Patriots and a Tua Tagovailoa-less Dolphins). Still, this Seahawks defense leads the league with 71 pressures generated, per PFF, while also giving up a league-low 4.68 yards per pass attempt and the third-lowest passing-TD rate at a measly 1.0%.
Heat check 🔥 Fantasy managers in single quarterback leagues can likely leave Goff on the bench this week in favor of some more favorable matchups like, dare I say, Caleb Williams, who faces a Los Angeles Rams defense currently ranked second in touchdown percentage allowed through three weeks of the season.
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There’s an unfortunate situation playing out in Buffalo right now — at least, as far as fantasy football managers are concerned. That “situation” is the fact that the Bills’ offense is so efficient, it hasn’t necessitated playing their starters for a full game. That shouldn’t be the case in Week 4, luckily, but still, it’s a matchup against a Baltimore Ravens’ rushing defense that ranks among the league’s best.
Through three weeks this season, the Ravens are allowing league lows in yards per carry (2.8), explosive run rate (3.7%) and rushing yards after contact per attempt (1.9). Up against this physical Ravens defense, the 5-foot-11, 190-pound RB could struggle in terms of efficiency, making him more dependent on passing volume or goal-line work.
Heat check 🔥 You’re not benching James Cook under any circumstances; you simply can’t in good faith sit the starting running back of a team that leads the league in EPA per play (0.251). However, you can temper your expectations.
In the absence of Nick Chubb, still recovering from a devastating knee injury that ended his 2023 campaign, I was fairly bullish on Jerome Ford at his preseason ADP in the 10th round or later. However, this week, he enters a matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders having missed Wednesday’s practice with a knee injury — a new addition to the injury report.
The issue with a matchup against the Raiders certainly isn’t game script. There should be plenty of time to run against this team given the projection of a fairly low-scoring matchup with the over/under currently set at 37.5 points. The issue is the lack of passing threat that the Browns bring to the table on an every down basis with Deshaun Watson under center that’s allowing opponents to key in on the run. That’s especially threatening considering Ford is already dealing with a knee injury that held him out of Wednesday’s practice. If he’s less than 100%, his lack of upside becomes even more concerning than usual.
Heat check 🔥 Despite having been a serviceable flex play so far this season, I’m looking to fade Ford where I can in most situations (barring desperation). With just four of his 15 career starts (regular and postseason) having earned 13+ points, his relatively low ceiling isn’t enough to slate him into my lineups.
I’m sorry to any Jaguars fans who are reading this article; this Jacksonville squad may just be the worst in the NFL. The offense looks absolutely broken, and things aren’t going to get any easier this week as they travel into Houston for a showdown with the Texans’ defense. Though they were demolished by Kevin O’Connell and the surprisingly competent Sam Darnold, Houston’s defense should be able to shut down this stunted Jaguars’ offense.
QB Trevor Lawrence has struggled so far this season, earning the seventh-highest uncatchable, inaccurate pass rate in the league at 24.7%. Pair that with the fact that there are currently five different players with 12+ targets from Lawrence this season, and suddenly, both volume and efficiency are looking like concerns.
Heat check 🔥 Given where you likely drafted Thomas Jr., you are probably in a position where he’s not a “must start” due to a lack of other options. Given the recent struggles on offense, you can bench him in favor of more intriguing matchups for Week 4; I sure will be.
The emergence of third-year wide receiver Jameson Williams has been one of the more pleasant surprises this season, as he’s just 145 receiving yards shy of his previous career-high of 353 … in just three games played. He currently leads the team in receiving yards (209), yards per reception (19), yards per route run (1.95) and yards after the catch per reception (1.95) despite catching just 50% of his targets this season.
I’ve already discussed the merits of the Seahawks’ defense at length, but there are particular elements of their game that may point to Jamo as the Lions’ biggest fade for fantasy this week. So far this season, the Seahawks have allowed the second-fewest explosive passing plays per PFF — a Williams special — and he ranks well behind star wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown in his target rate on routes run with 20.6% to St. Brown’s 28.8%, lowering Williams’ floor for those in need of a safe play.
Heat check 🔥 Fantasy football managers who are swinging for the fences may consider Williams a shoot-for-the-moon play given his upside. However, if you’re in need of a steady baseline of points, this is the week to sit Williams.
Last week, the New Orleans Saints allowed Philadelphia Eagles TE Dallas Goedert a whopping 10 catches for 170 receiving yards, which might have fantasy managers excited for the prospects of Kyle Pitts in Week 4. Though the Atlanta Falcons offense has looked more capable week-over-week as Kirk Cousins appears to get healthier post-Achilles injury, this matchup is still giving me pause over the belief that this is the ultimate breakout spot for Pitts.
Goedert’s monster performance in Week 3 has one major asterisk that bears noting. Due to several injuries at wide receiver (A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Britain Covey), he played a more significant portion of his snaps right out of the slot and split out wide than he had in previous weeks. Pitts, meanwhile, has played more of a traditional TE role with the Falcons this season, playing 41.9% of his snaps as an inline tight end in comparison to his previous career-high of 25.6%. Pitts will likely face a good bit of All-Pros Tyrann Mathieu and Demario Davis over the middle of the field — bad news for even the most talented receivers.
Heat check 🔥 As is frequently the case for some of the upper-echelon tight ends, Pitts will be a difficult option to sit in most leagues given his overall upside. I’ll start him in Week 4; my expectations for a big day just won’t be very high.
