Another week, another round of crucially important start/sit decisions. To help you make them, here’s a look at six players with bust potential in Week 10.
Something to keep in mind as you’re reading: a “fade” or “bust” designation doesn’t automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or available options on your waiver wire.
Fading the heavy favorite to win 2024 NFL Rookie of the Year in fantasy for any given week feels like bad business. Hear me out, though. Daniels sits as the overall QB3 in fantasy ahead of Week 10, ranked fourth among QBs with 2,404 combined passing and rushing yards (including a league-high 343 scramble yards). Even that hasn’t been enough to maintain the red-hot start he had to the start of the season, though.
After starting the year with two top-three positional finishes over the first three weeks, Daniels has cooled to more of a mid-to-low-end QB1. That drop-off in production stems from a lack of touchdowns on the ground, having failed to hit paydirt as a runner over the past five weeks, even if he continues to play good football.
This week, Daniels will face a freshly rested Pittsburgh Steelers defense, which has me doubting he’s likely to bounce back in this spot. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have gone 25-6 against rookie QBs. Meanwhile, the defense is yet to allow a single QB more than 19 fantasy points in a given game this year, holding Anthony Richardson, Bo Nix and Daniel Jones to a combined 50 rushing yards.
Heat check 🔥 Start Daniels this week but with the knowledge that this isn’t a game to expect a top-five performance. Daniels sits as a low-end QB1 in my ranks this week.
Javonte Williams once looked like a raging value as a potential workhorse in Sean Payton’s offense. However, he remains one of the most inefficient running backs in the league and appears to be losing ground in his respective offense. Among RBs with 75+ rush attempts this season, Williams is averaging a league-low 2.42 yards after contact per attempt while ranking bottom-five in yards per carry (3.8) and bottom 10 in first-down/touchdown rate (20.6%) per PFF. His 59.2 PFF rushing grade ranks 31st among the 31 RBs with 75+ carries. It’s not great, and he’s seen a decrease in his offensive snap percentage in each of the past four weeks.
In the wake of all that inefficiency, Payton has now hinted at the potential for increased playing time for rookie Audric Estimé moving forward with an uber-challenging matchup on deck against the Kansas City Chiefs. First off, the Chiefs are a terrifying matchup against the run — a top-five unit in terms of yards per carry allowed (3.7), yards after contact per attempt (2.4), explosive run rate (8.8%) and fantasy points per game to the position (12.49). They’ve also found a new spark on the offense with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, reaching the 30-point mark for the first time this season just last week — not great news for the Broncos’ ability to establish the run.
Heat check 🔥 There’s no pressure to force Williams into lineups if you have better options this week.
Titans RB Tony Pollard has had his ups and downs this season, which hasn’t been unexpected given the general trajectory of the offense, but Pollard has remained a staple in fantasy lineups thanks to his volume, regardless, especially as backup Tyjae Spears has missed time with a hamstring injury. In his absence, Pollard has played 82% or more of offensive snaps with 18+ touches in each of those games … but it does seem a potential decrease in work could be on the horizon — especially concerning given a challenging upcoming matchup in Week 10.
Earlier this week, HC Brian Callahan said they’re eager to get Spears back into the lineup, as they’d like to reduce Pollard’s workload “because all the carries are wearing on him,” beat writer Jim Wyatt reported. Pairing these concerns off a game where Pollard had a career-high 28 carries and a matchup against a stingy Los Angeles Chargers run defense, and Pollard’s prospects are suddenly less tempting than usual. The Chargers have allowed just two RBs all season (James Conner, Alvin Kamara) to score 15+ fantasy points in a given week, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
Heat check 🔥 Tony Pollard still deserves a spot in fantasy lineups, but given a concern for a potential decrease in his workload and a matchup that could render him less efficient than usual, it’s best to temper expectations that this is a “boom” spot for him.
It’s been an up-and-down season for the Cardinals’ highly-anticipated rookie wideout, who’s fallen behind the pace of fellow first-round picks Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. in production. He enters Week 10 as the overall WR19 in half-PPR scoring formats and has had two top-five weekly finishes at the position (the same number as Nabers!). However, his floor has been significantly lower than that of Nabers — or even Thomas Jr. — as Kyler Murray continues to distribute the ball fairly evenly throughout Arizona’s offense.
In Week 10, the Cardinals will host the New York Jets, who have allowed the second-fewest pass touchdowns this season (6) and fourth-lowest pass YPA average (6.4) while generating the second-most pressures (177) and forcing the fourth-highest contested target rate (19.5%). Cornerbacks D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner continue to rank among the league’s best cornerbacks, allowing just four WRs to top 15+ fantasy points in half-PPR scoring formats this year. Three of those receivers took 9+ targets to get there — a mark MHJ has exceeded just once all season.
Heat check 🔥 Start Harrison Jr. this week but without expectations for a week-winning performance.
Second-year wideout Quentin Johnston was a popular waiver wire pick up heading into Week 10, currently making the most of the Chargers’ increased passing volume following their bye. He’s scored in three of six games this year and is coming off a career-best outing (4-118-1) against the Cleveland Browns just last week. However, this probably isn’t the week to fire him up in your lineups.
The Titans are allowing a league-low 6.58 yards per pass attempt on targets to WRs and the second-lowest first-down/TD rate (32.1%) on such plays. They’ve allowed a league-low 870 receiving yards to the position, giving up just 21.09 fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts — the fourth-fewest in the league. Even though the Chargers passing game is trending up, it may not be a great spot for Johnston, who’s been more reliant on efficiency (140.7 NFL passer rating when targeted, 2.93 fantasy points per touch) than volume this year.
Heat check 🔥 Fade Johnston for virtually any other option in Week 10. He should comfortably sit on fantasy benches … even if you did just drop some FAB to acquire him.
2024 has not gone as expected for LaPorta, who was the consensus TE2 off of draft boards ahead of the fantasy football season. He’s seen a diminished role in the passing game in comparison to his rookie season, currently ranked as the TE15 on the year with weekly finishes outside of the top 12 in five of eight games this season and is 19th at the position in fantasy points per route run per PlayerProfiler.
This week, the Lions will face the Houston Texans, who have not been a lock-down unit to this point in the season. They have, however, been particularly proficient in coverage against opposing tight ends. They are allowing a league-low 4.41 pass yards per attempt and the second-lowest EPA per play against (-0.264) on targets to TEs. They’ve allowed two TEs games of 7+ fantasy points this year (Hunter Henry, Tucker Kraft), and both of those were on the back of receiving touchdowns. Jameson Williams also returns from suspension this week, making the competition for targets even tougher.
Heat check 🔥 Considering LaPorta’s current stance, ranking fourth in targets (34) and red-zone targets (6) on his respective team while tied for the 15th-most end-zone targets (2) among tight ends, it could be a touchdown-or-bust week. Start him given his upside on one of the most efficient passing offenses in the league but without significant expectations. Still, players like Cade Otton have a much higher ceiling (and a safer floor) for Week 10.
