When the Jets traded for Aaron Rodgers, the intention was clear — they were a “win-now” team, seeking a stable veteran quarterback to guide them on the path to a Super Bowl. Fast forward, and the limited results have been mixed.
The Jets sit at 2-2, with their two wins coming against two of the weaker teams in the NFL, the Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots. What should have been a layup against the struggling Denver Broncos instead resulted in a disappointing 10-9 loss in which the Jets failed to score a single touchdown.
They simply didn’t look like a team poised to make a playoff run.
From a fantasy football standpoint, the first four weeks of the season have raised significant concerns across the entire Jets offense. The fact that two first-round fantasy picks came from this team makes it even more worrisome. The Jets have failed to score more than 24 points in any game so far and while we didn’t necessarily expect Rodgers to turn the offense into a high-powered unit, the level of production has been far below expectations. The appeal of Rodgers was supposed to be an increase in efficiency, but his production hasn’t translated to volume and has left fantasy managers with a bad taste in their mouths.
Is it time to panic over the Jets offense?
Outside of Superflex leagues, Rodgers wasn’t drafted to be a starting quarterback. However, his effectiveness directly affects the team’s fantasy stars so we must analyze his performance first to contextualize the performances of Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. Don’t worry, though — this won’t take long.
Rodgers’ Week 1 performance was underwhelming, completing just 13 of 21 attempts for 167 yards, one touchdown and one interception. It was his first game back and we gave him a pass. Weeks 2 and 3 showed improvement with two touchdowns in each game, but the volume remained underwhelming. In Week 4, Rodgers completed 24 of 42 attempts for 225 yards and zero touchdowns. That’s it — nothing that truly stands out as a significant catalyst for fantasy production.
I’ll give Rodgers another pass because this performance was expected. However, while this matchup was difficult, the road ahead doesn’t get any easier. The Jets face Minnesota next, followed by Buffalo, Pittsburgh and New England. It’s tough to envision high pass volume in any of those matchups. This performance gives us a preview of the weeks ahead and Rodgers will likely continue to underwhelm and his struggles will affect the receiving corps.
Rodgers’ performance clearly has the biggest impact on Wilson. Looking at Wilson’s stats coming into this week, it’s easy to see why fantasy managers are frustrated with a player they drafted at the one-two turn. Wilson has just 15 receptions on 26 targets, with one touchdown, averaging 9.7 fantasy points per game in half-PPR formats (WR34 overall).
Week 4’s performance was actually better than we could have hoped for, given that Patrick Surtain has consistently shut down top wide receivers. The fact that Wilson managed five receptions at all is a testament to his talent. Wilson lost a fumble in this game and without that, his fantasy performance would have been similar to the prior three weeks. At least there’s consistency.
However, when you’re being outperformed by players like Khalil Shakir (who, for the record, I do love), Jalen Nailor and your own teammate, Allen Lazard, it’s understandable why fantasy managers are concerned.
In 2023, Wilson was targeted 168 times. Even with the addition of Mike Williams, there was no reason to expect Wilson’s volume to be an issue. The theory behind Rodgers’ addition was that Wilson was already an elite receiver who just needed a more efficient quarterback to boost his touchdowns and overall production. But through four weeks, Wilson is averaging a 59% catch rate, barely better than his 57% catch rate from 2023. This is not the increase in efficiency we expected. To make matters worse, Wilson hasn’t exceeded 60 yards in any game and has only one touchdown through four games. That puts him on pace for just four touchdowns over a full season.
Poor efficiency, minimal volume, lack of touchdowns — sounds familiar, doesn’t it?
His production is following a similar pattern to last year, and if things don’t change soon, fantasy managers will be in full panic mode. We’re not benching Wilson yet — he’s still providing flex-worthy numbers — but this is not what we expected when drafting him. We hoped for Davante Adams-levels of production, but we’ve been left with an Allen Lazard-level performance. Oh, the irony!
With the Jets’ passing game struggling, you’d think the run game would take center stage. However, that hasn’t been the case either. The Jets rank in the middle of the pack in terms of rushing attempts and yardage, averaging four yards per carry coming into Week 4. That’s decent but not what was expected from a team with an upgraded offensive line and veteran quarterback. The bigger issue is that Breece Hall is not driving 100% of those numbers. Braelon Allen’s emergence has cut into his workload just enough to take the true ceiling off his upside.
Hall’s fantasy production entering Week 4 wasn’t concerning. He was the RB6 in half-PPR, averaging 17.7 points per game. That said, it was frustrating to compare his numbers to Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara, both of whom were averaging over 26 points per game. Hall’s production was good, but not elite.
Heading into the season, Allen was seen as a valuable late-round pick, backing up Hall with league-winning upside if Hall got injured. However, after limited usage in Week 1, Allen has carved out a consistent role, contributing on the ground and in the passing game. He’s shown solid efficiency and touchdown equity, proving to be an excellent complement to Hall.
In Week 4, Hall managed just 10 carries for 4 yards and two receptions for 14 yards, compared to Allen’s eight carries for 34 yards and one reception for 12 yards. Fantasy managers are starting to worry about a potential backfield split. While I think this is an overreaction, it’s hard to ignore Allen’s efficiency. Still, Hall remains the lead back, and we’ll continue starting him as a top-12 option. However, if the Jets offense doesn’t improve, those beautiful dreams of Hall finishing as the overall RB1 might just be pipe dreams.
I mentioned Lazard earlier and his involvement has been somewhat predictable. Do I trust Lazard enough to start him with confidence? Not yet. Can he be a potential low-end flex option during bye weeks or if you’re faced with injuries? Absolutely! One thing we know about Rodgers is that he sticks with his favorite targets and Lazard is clearly one of them.
The bigger question is how Mike Williams fits into this offense.
Williams hasn’t been a major factor yet, but we knew his involvement would gradually increase as he recovered from a torn ACL suffered last season. He looked better in Week 4, with four catches on five targets for 67 yards. While the production wasn’t overwhelming, he’s clearly carving out a role. That said, we need to see more before trusting him in lineups. With the Jets set to face some tough defenses in the coming weeks, Wilson will likely face the top cornerbacks, which could open opportunities for Lazard and Williams to see increased targets. Rodgers is a smart quarterback who knows how to exploit matchups, and that could mean value for both Lazard and Williams moving forward.
