Running backs remain king in fantasy football. While it feels like there are more elite quarterbacks and wide receivers than ever before, the amount of consistent, dependable running backs is dwindling. This makes it all the more important to find value at running back in fantasy football. In order to help you do that, I will be taking a look at a few backfields each week that stick out based on recent trends or new information we learned.
We are already a quarter of the way through the NFL season, and teams are starting to make changes to their offensive game plans based on what they learned from the first four weeks. This is valuable in fantasy football because it gives you an opportunity to get ahead of the curve on certain players to maximize their value. Without further ado, let’s get into my top backfield takeaways heading into Week 5.
I was banging the drum for Bucky Irving all summer, so it’s nice to see the Bucs incorporating Irving more and more as the season progresses. Irving played a season-high 42% of snaps on Sunday, running for 49 yards on 10 carries. Rachaad White, who played the other 58%, actually had the same exact marks on the ground and added two catches for 35 yards. Notably, Irving received all of the team’s goal-line carries aside from a Baker Mayfield read option, indicating that the Bucs are shifting to using Irving in short-yardage scenarios.
The Bucs clearly have a productive offense — they rank top 10 in EPA per play, success rate, and total points scored, which means Irving should be able to sustain decent fantasy production even if he isn’t used in the passing game much. Irving should absolutely be rostered in your league if he isn’t already, and I have no qualms with starting him as a FLEX option. I would put White in the same general tier as a high-floor, low-ceiling RB2.
The Panthers’ offensive renaissance under Andy Dalton has been especially helpful for running back Chuba Hubbard. In the two weeks with Dalton at quarterback, Hubbard has totaled nearly 300 yards from scrimmage along with two scores, and has consecutive finishes as a top-seven fantasy running back.
Hubbard has clearly been the lead back in the Panthers backfield over Miles Sanders, who has 13 carries to Hubbard’s 39 during this hot stretch. Hubbard, who has historically never really been an effective runner, is putting up career numbers in efficiency. He is putting up an impressive 5.4 yards a carry and has the eighth-highest PFF rushing grade in the league.
A wrinkle to the Panthers’ running back situation is that rookie Jonathan Brooks is eligible to return off the PUP list this week. Given how successful Hubbard has been the last few weeks though, I expect the Panthers to avoid rushing Brooks back into action. It’s difficult to predict his usage once he returns, but my guess is that Brooks eats into Sanders’ role more so than Hubbard’s and that the two can peacefully coexist.
For the time being, I would be more than comfortable starting Hubbard as a top-15 running back while Brooks is out (and Andy Dalton is quarterback), and would consider him a “buy high” trade target if you could get a good deal by using Brooks’ potential return as leverage.
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It’s crazy how quickly things can change in the NFL. Last week, the Chiefs gave rookie Carson Steele 17 carries including two on the goal line, and it seemed certain that he would be the most used back in the rotation moving forward. One week later, Steele was benched after an early fumble and finished his day with negative fantasy points.
The Chiefs turned to veteran Kareem Hunt, who was just elevated off the practice squad, to take Steele’s role as the lead running back. Hunt had 14 carries for 69 yards in the Chiefs win over the Chargers, and was on the field for 45% of snaps. Samaje Perine retained his role as the change-of-pace option, playing 40% of snaps and running for 14 yards on five carries. Surprisingly, Perine did not see any targets, which is concerning, as that is his main source of fantasy production.
I would avoid starting any of the three Chiefs running backs next week. It is possible that Steele’s benching was only for a game as a lesson for fumbling, but the Chiefs clearly want to work Hunt into the offense as well. If Steele, Hunt, and Perine all play a similar amount of snaps, I highly doubt either of them would be valuable in fantasy. Hunt is currently the “hot hand” so I would start him out of the three as a touchdown-dependent FLEX play, but only in an emergency.
I’m not sure what the Bengals are doing with their backfield. After playing 80% of the team’s snaps in Week 2 and 76% of the snaps in Week 3, it looked like Zack Moss was going to be the clear RB1. Instead, on Sunday, Moss played just 60% of snaps and was out-produced by Chase Brown.
Moss and Brown both saw 15 carries, but Brown churned out 80 yards on the ground compared to Moss’ 51. The especially confusing part of this backfield is that the Bengals are essentially splitting the goal line work as well. Moss failed to punch in a chance from the two yard line and later caught a one-yard score, while Brown scored from three yards and one yard out.
The Bengals offense looks to have found its groove, with back to back games putting up 30+ points. Moss has been quite productive during this stretch, and I’d continue to start him as an RB2 each week even with a lower workload. Brown, on the other hand, should be picked up on waivers this week if he was dropped, and I’d keep a close eye on his usage over the next week or two. If the Bengals are consistent in splitting touches on a 60/40 basis, Brown would also be a FLEX-level starter.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Tank Bigsby had a productive day against the Texans, running for an impressive 90 yards on seven carries. Travis Etienne left the game in the first quarter due to shoulder injury and later returned, but was largely outplayed by Bigsby. Bigsby is definitely worth a waiver add this week as Etienne will likely be questionable to play. Even if he suits up, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jaguars work Bigsby in more as they try to bounce back from their disappointing 0-4 start.
New York Jets: Braelon Allen didn’t have a particularly notable performance in the Jets slugfest loss against the Broncos, but he once again ate into Breece Hall’s workload. Allen played 45 snaps to Hall’s 51 in Week 4, and quite frankly looked a lot better than him. As a matter of fact, Allen currently is PFF’s second-highest graded rusher and ranks eighth in yards after contact per carry. He is probably already rostered in your league, but I’d send over a trade offer for Allen as he is much better than his 5.1-point fantasy performance this past week would indicate.
