One of my favorite hobbies, outside of writing about football, is running.
It gives me a chance to catch up on podcasts or books. I get to travel and do long-distance races with friends. Of course, I keep my health in check as I get older. Anyway, my favorite time out on a trail is the last couple of miles. I can visualize the end. But, more importantly, by that point, I’m confident I can finish.
We’re at that point in the fantasy season.
We’ve been at this for over three months. And it’s been a rollercoaster of injuries, trades and big-time performances. But we’re not done yet. Getting to the playoffs is half the battle, and the next few weeks are our shot at a title. So, let’s dig into the top storylines and tease out the takeaways you need to adjust your roster for the playoffs.
After a bye week with six teams (featuring at least three QB1s) out, Week 15 probably feels like the portal scene from “Avengers: Endgame.” All of our heroes are coming back for one last push to take out Than — I mean, the rest of your competition. Of the stars fantasy managers (immediately) put back in their starting lineups, my favorite two starts with the Ravens’ QB.
When Lamar Jackson was asked if he missed opportunities to run, he said “yes, my momma just cussed me about that.” She told him there were open lanes he should have took.
Jackson is also eager for the bye week to past: “I’m ready to go.”#RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/ORRQVcKtwM
— Carita Parks (@CaritaCParks) December 2, 2024
The last five seconds are my favorite. You can almost feel Lamar Jackson’s eagerness to get back out on the field. But vibes aren’t the only reason why he’s still in the MVP race.
Jackson is the only mobile QB with top-10 marks in passing and rushing this season. He’s been more efficient through the air on a down-to-down basis than current MVP frontrunner Josh Allen while accounting for the same number of total TDs (32). Anyway, stat comps aside, Jackson operating the league’s most explosive scoring unit has been a constant gift to fantasy managers. The Giants (Baltimore’s Week 15 opponent) have surrendered the fifth-most points to opposing rushers. Mac Jones, Will Levis and Cooper Rush all eclipsed 225 passing yards against the Texans (Week 17). Other than his rematch against the Steelers, Jackson’s potential throughout the fantasy playoffs will be why teams win championships.
And I could say the same thing about Nico Collins.
Collins has logged target shares at or above 30.0% in back-to-back games heading into the Texans’ bye. At the same time, we’ve seen less of Houston’s ancillary options. Tank Dell’s volume has dwindled in every game since Collins came back. Joe Mixon and Dalton Schultz have had more consistent assignments.
Collins gets an extra week of rest and plays host to a Dolphins’ secondary that allowed Aaron Rodgers’ best passing day since ’21. Afterward, Collins will face two struggling pass defenses in Kansas City and Baltimore. Even if we’ve only seen flashes of C.J. Stroud’s rookie season in ’24, his reliance on and connection with Collins should align with our dependence on him to advance through the playoffs.
Well, honestly, I don’t know.
After Week 9, I saw DeAndre Hopkins as the next (lite) replacement for Rashee Rice. Eight of Hopkins’ nine targets were on throws of less than 10 air yards. So, seeing him literally fall into the end zone on Sunday night was further vindication of saying he’d flourish with Kansas City.
However, for all that, Hopkins only put up 13.2 PPR points.
I’ll say this another way. A pass-catcher on the Chiefs got the most targets from Patrick Mahomes (arguably the greatest QB of our time), scored a touchdown and finished as a WR3 on the week. Despite the lock on the division (and the conference), Week 14 was a quick reminder that this isn’t the same Chiefs offense we’ve looked to in years past.
Even when Kansas City wasn’t scoring last year, it was averaging more yards per play to soften the blow. Injuries not just to its receiving corps but to its offensive line have been an anchor to their entire operation. It’s had 39 drives this season without a first down, which is a career-high for Mahomes. And he’s felt the pain on each stalled series. Mahomes has the most QB hits (91) in the league. Luckily, his scrambling ability has been the deciding factor in a few KC Ws this season. But as the team continues to pull out wins via his legs and last-minute kicks, there’s been less of a need to overload their personnel.
Target Share: 34.0% (Rice, Weeks 1-3)
Route Rate: 82.0%
Targets per Route Run: 33.0%
Sunday was the first time since Week 7 that a Chiefs’ WR ran more than 80.0% of the routes. As I mentioned earlier, Hopkins got most of the targets against the Chargers (24.0%), but that was just his second time above 20.0% with Mahomes. But the thing is, they haven’t really needed Hopkins to be a full-time player. Their defense has allowed 30 or more points just once all season. There hasn’t been a game script pushing them into a fight. And their matchup against the Steelers in Week 17 is the only one on their fantasy playoff schedule against an offense scoring (26.1 points) above the league average (21.9). It puts Hopkins in the low-end WR2 category despite the WR1 role.
And if I try to turn to the backfield for a single source of production, I’m met with yet another committee.
Isiah Pacheco (since returning from injury): 40.0% (snap rate), 57.0% (carry rate), 6.0% (target share)
Kareem Hunt: 36.0%, 32.0%, 5.0%
Samaje Perine: 22.0%, 3.0%, 3.0%
On the plus side, Pacheco’s grip on the backfield strengthened on Sunday as he played more snaps and ran more routes than during his Week 13 return. But still, the other RBs had their parts to play. Kareem Hunt and Carson Steele have been on for short-yardage totes. Samaje Perine is the Chiefs’ two-minute man. Facing the Browns’, Texans’ and Steelers’ run defenses requires volume for a useful day in fantasy. And Pacheco’s edge on the touches is minimal. So, even if you find yourself starting someone with a “KC” abbreviation next to their name, you’re hoping for the best but should expect a floor outcome.
Fantasy scoring is the talent and situation. An RB’s knack for finding the right gap or a receiver’s penchant for continually getting the ball thrown their way isn’t (all) luck. We don’t share their highlight reels for no reason. So, focusing on Malik Nabers’ talent coming into the league wasn’t a bad idea.
After dominating the looks at LSU, Nabers’ path to being a WR1 was easy to see. New York selecting him sixth overall cemented his case to take the league by storm. Through 10 weeks, even after missing two games with a concussion, you had to include Nabers in any conversation about the best wideouts regardless of how much time they’ve been in the league.
Target Share (through Week 10): 28.9% (2nd out of 20 WRs – min. 20.0% target share)
Receiving Yards per Game: 75.9 (3rd)
Air Yard Share: 41.0% (6th)
PPR PPG: 17.44 (3rd)
However, we knew his situation was tenuous in the offseason. Daniel Jones’ history of poor play and injury guarantee on his contract put an in-season benching in his range of outcomes. The vibes were trending down from Week 1. No one’s surprised the Giants moved on from Jones, but the environment Nabers finds himself in can’t be overcome by his talent alone.
Yards per Drive: 28.6 (w/ Jones), 20.8 (w/out Jones)
Total Yards per Game: 309.7, 272.3
Passing Yards per Game: 189.8, 171.0
EPA per Play: -0.08, -0.22
RZ Plays per Game: 9.9, 7.3
Since Jones’s departure, the offense has scored four touchdowns. No, not four touchdowns per game. Four total. Even better (actually, this is worse), none of them have been passing TDs. Meanwhile, the combined powers of Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock have fallen short of Jones’ ability, as neither has crested 250 yards.
The situation in New York has dampened a star as bright as Nabers’. Regardless, he should be in starting lineups.
In spite of the atrocious QB play, Nabers is just one of seven WRs with a 30.0% target share. HC Brian Daboll and OC Mike Kafka are still drawing up quick-short concepts to get the ball in their best WR’s hands. Plus, Nabers gets to face the Ravens (1st in FPPG allowed to WRs) and Falcons (4th) over the next two weeks. However, because of the drop in efficiency under center, he falls to the WR2 ranks instead of the top-12 rating he had earlier in the year.
A couple of things came to mind in the aftermath of Miami’s final play against the Jets.
First off, good for Tua Tagovailoa. He’s averaged the third-most passing yards per game since coming off of IR and ranks first in EPA per dropback. But we should’ve expected the aerial production. He topped the league last season. Now, after notching 15 TDs in seven games, Tagovailoa has the hallmarks of a viable QB. However, seeing who caught the OT TD reminded me that that change has come at a price.
(2023) Tyreek Hill: 31.1% (target share), 35.6% (targets per route run), 24.8 (PPR PPG)
Jaylen Waddle: 21.5%, 26.5%, 13.7
Raheem Mostert: 6.8%, 12.3%, 18.3
Braxton Berrios: 6.6%, 11.3%, 4.2
Last season, we (mostly) knew where the ball was going. Without a pass-catching RB or route-running TE, the condensed offense was as reliable as it was effective — at least throughout the regular season. You’d think their loss to the Chiefs in the Wild Card round would push them to add more options (or play in warmer weather when it counts). Well, the Dolphins made the right personnel adjustments. But the passing game has become a weekly puzzle.
Tyreek Hill: 21.2% (target share), 22.3% (targets per route run), 16.3 (PPR PPG)
De’Von Achane: 17.4%, 24.9%, 21.4
Jonnu Smith: 19.3%, 22.9%, 15.7
Jaylen Waddle: 16.2%, 17.0%, 13.0
Jaylen Waddle’s ups and downs have been the bane of every fantasy manager’s existence this season. Smith went from zero (points) to hero (TE7) in four minutes of overtime in Week 14. Even Hill had to have a ball tipped to him for a TD on Thanksgiving. However, even with the added playmakers, we can sift through the chaos and make reasonable assumptions for the playoffs.
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Achane and Smith are must-plays at their positions. Sunday notwithstanding, Smith is eighth amongst all TEs in targets per game with Tagovailoa under center. Outside of Zach Ertz or Hunter Henry, who may have been bye-week casualties, you won’t find another TE earning more work. Achane is averaging more targets than Jayden Reed while still controlling over half of the backfield carries.
So, we’re back to the WRs.
Hill’s usage on Sunday suggests his status as the WR1 is intact. Week 14 was his first game with +30.0% of the targets with Tagovailoa since Week 1 while still operating downfield (53.0% of the air yards). He’s in the top 12 for now. But Waddle’s workload has oscillated from less than 10.0% to over 20.0% of the looks over the last six weeks. Without a consistent share and understanding of where the targets are going, he’s a low-end WR2 with upside for the playoffs.
Sunday’s action paved the way for huge days in the box score from multiple RBs. However, as the day unfolded, their names started to stick out. Let’s see if you can spot the commonality.
Zach Charbonnet, RB1
Isaac Guerendo, RB2
Chuba Hubbard, RB8
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB11
Isaiah Davis, RB15
Tony Pollard RB18
Ty Johnson, RB19
Tank Bigsby, RB20
Tyler Allgeier, RB22
Braelon Allen, RB23
Admittedly, I left two guys out off this list, but I’ll get to them in a second.
Nevertheless, all of those RBs had ADPs in the double-digit rounds back in August. Some were last-minute adds off the waiver wire. And in the week everyone needed them the most, they showed out. However, the RBs featured in Monday Night Football emphasized why taking contingent bets on offensive backfields in the late rounds is a strong strategy before and throughout the season.
Chase Brown’s portion of the backfield touches had been on the rise since Week 1. And an untimely fumble by Zack Moss in Week 6 vaulted Brown into the RB1 role for the Bengals. But, since Moss’s trip to IR, Brown’s turned into the RB folks saw at Illinois.
After five games with over 70.0% of the carries, Brown has been averaging more rushing yards per game than Breece Hall and Jonathan Taylor and more receiving yards than De’Von Achane and Alvin Kamara. Of course, this is great for fantasy purposes, but Cincinnati’s offense wouldn’t be the same without him. He’s generated 24.0% of its first downs on his own. That’s more than Ja’Marr Chase. With Brown also being one of eight RBs with 100.0% of their team’s carries at the goal line, there’s no reason for you to take him out of his starting spot.
On the opposite side of MNF, Rico Dowdle fits into a similar category but to a lesser extent.
Yards per Drive (w/out Dak Prescott): 28th
Offensive Points per Game: 29th
Red-Zone Plays per Game: 26th
Dowdle has hoarded over 50.0% of Dallas’ carries in six straight games and taken over 60.0% in his last three. Ezekiel Elliott hasn’t seen more than five opportunities in a game since mid-November. HC Mike McCarthy was true to his word. But without Dak Prescott, the offense sits near the bottom in every efficiency metric. Three of their 10 touchdowns with Cooper Rush as the starter have come by their special teams unit. So, while Dowdle’s talent has secured him an RB1 job, his situation drops him into a tier with other RB2s like Tony Pollard and Aaron Jones.
However, with matchups against the Panthers and Buccaneers to kick off the playoffs, Dowdle’s environment sets him up for top-12 finishes for managers making a push for a championship.
