Today’s assignment is Booms and Busts for 2024. We’re trying to present to you the upside and downside cases for a handful of players.
Let’s be fair about this; the booms are all upside players who don’t present an obvious floor, and the busts are all players who still could be fantasy assets. The discussion will always have nuance to it, and it’s up to you, dear reader, to decide what the information means for your teams and leagues.
Let’s get to the fun picks first. These players have exciting Boom cases that we’re eager to draft.
Baltimore often talks about using Likely and Mark Andrews together, but that’s seldom been a thing. Likely probably doesn’t have tangible fantasy value so long as Andrews is healthy. But Andrews has only played one full season out of six as a pro — he missed seven games last year — and when Andrews is not available, Likely often thrives. Consider the eight starts Likely has made without Andrews — they’ve added up to 30 catches, 449 yards, six touchdowns — needle-moving numbers.
The Miami offense is all about speed, and Wright comes to town with exciting credentials — a 4.38 time in the 40-yard dash and 7.4 yards per carry at Tennessee last year. Miami offensive designer Mike McDaniel likes a two-back system, which means Wright could become a fantasy plug-and-play if either Raheem Mostert or De’Von Achane gets hurt. Keep in mind Mostert heads into his age-32 season and Achane missed six games last year; I suspect Wright will be a hot fantasy commodity at some point in 2024.
I’m not sure Fields will ever be a great professional quarterback, given his high sack rate and ordinary passing stats. But fantasy managers know all about the upside here, tied to Fields’ electric rushing ability. Fields had five QB finishes in the top four last season, and four of them were linked to significant rushing volume. If Russell Wilson gets hurt or benched in 2024, we’ll have Fields on speed dial. And in deeper QB leagues, Fields deserves consideration as a stash-and-hope pick.
As much as the market loves Arizona rookie Marvin Harrison Jr., plenty of scouts thought Nabers might be the jewel of the 2024 receiver class. Head coach Brian Daboll plans to throw heavy volume at Nabers right off the bus, and maybe quarterback Daniel Jones can be redeemed.
Just two years back, Jones had a quarterback rating that was above the league average and had the lowest interception rate in the league. The Giants also went 9-6-1 that year.
Even if you don’t really trust Jones, Daboll and Nabers still make for a spicy cocktail.
Johnson’s always been a darling of the route-charting crowd, and his new setup might be better than you realize. Head coach Dave Canales orchestrated Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield comebacks the last two years, and it’s too early to say that sophomore quarterback Bryce Young can’t play. If Canales can coach up Young, Johnson carries ADP-smashing upside.
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It’s been fun dreaming about upside, hasn’t it? Now we have to take the downer approach and discuss a few possible Busts.
Barkley was a monster when he first entered the NFL, leading the league in yards from scrimmage as a rookie and averaging 5.6 yards per touch over his first two years. He hasn’t been the same player since, averaging a modest 4.0 yards per carry and 4.4 yards per touch. The New York offense line didn’t do him many favors, but it’s open to wonder how much injuries have robbed Barkley of his athleticism.
The shift to Philadelphia should afford Barkley better blocking and more favorable game scripts. But quarterback Jalen Hurts might not be good for Barkley’s fantasy value — Hurts holds a lot of the goal-line equity via the unstoppable tush push, and Hurts rarely targets his running backs in the passing game.
Don’t cling to the splashy memories of the young Barkley; that electric runner is likely gone for good.
I think back to Oct. 30 of last year, a Monday night in Detroit. The Raiders hardly showed up that evening, managing just 157 yards of offense and getting crushed by the Lions. Josh McDaniels was fired after this game, while Jimmy Garoppolo lost his starting gig for good.
It was the most frustrating day of Adams’s season. He drew seven targets — most of them off-target — and finished with one catch for 11 yards. But how much better is the current setup?
The Raiders have a shaky quarterback room — Gardner Minshew somehow won the starting gig despite a paltry 48.5 completion percentage in the summer. Adams is entering his age-32 season, so some skill deterioration is to be expected. Head coach Antonio Pierce would like to control games with a solid defense and a conservative offense, which caps the upside of the passing game. I haven’t considered Adams once this draft season.
Once upon a time, Watson was an undeniable star. But his last productive season came four years ago, and he was downright lost for much of the 2023 season. Is it possible he’s permanently lost the swagger and confidence you need to succeed at the most critical position in sports? It’s also plausible that head coach Kevin Stefanski might start coaching to hide Watson in the offense, not feature him. Watson is nowhere near my 2024 target list.
I’d love to see Rodgers have a strong comeback season, especially so the theoretical upsides of Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson can become a reality. But I wonder if what Tom Brady did in his 40s has made the fantasy marketplace unrealistic about what’s possible for a quarterback at an advanced age. If Rodgers gets to 200 points this year in his age-41 season, he’ll become just the fourth quarterback to hit that mark this late in the game, joining Brady, Warren Moon and Drew Brees. Remember that Brett Favre (age 41), Peyton Manning (age 39) and Moon (age 42) were all ineffective in their final years. The bus leaves town for everyone eventually.
Kelce has too much guile and experience to fall off the map, but the Chiefs did well limiting Kelce’s workload last season, then fully unleashing him in the playoffs. I suspect that load management strategy will be used again this year, and it’s an easier sell now that the Chiefs have upgraded the wide receiver room. Kelce is a poor bet to return his expectant ADP.
