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Start-sit questions can be anxious for even the best fantasy managers. Here’s a traffic-light report to help get you ready for Championship Week.
Everything has fallen perfectly for Goff’s fantasy value the last few weeks — the Detroit defense has fallen apart and the offense no longer has David Montgomery to gobble up touches and touchdowns. Goff’s stats the last three weeks are almost too good to be true: 11 touchdown passes, 1,113 passing yards, 132 attempts. Pinball scoring is likely when the Lions and Niners play Monday, so get your popcorn ready.
He’s been a target hog since Mason Rudolph took over, with 17 catches and 21 targets the last two weeks. The Jaguars don’t defend much of anything, including the tight end; they’re the seventh-best matchup for the position. Sometimes it takes a while for tight ends to figure things out; that’s what Okonkwo appears to be doing at the end of his third season.
He’s the No. 2 receiving option for an offense we trust, and this game has a juicy 48.5 total attached to it. McMillan has four touchdowns in his past three games and just missed a long score at the end of the loss to Dallas. Baker Mayfield will make sure the rookie gets multiple opportunities downfield.
If you missed your fantasy playoffs, it’s possible Samuel was a key reason why — he did little for a two-month stretch in the middle of the year. But Samuel was back in business at Miami last week (12 touches, 121 scrimmage yards, touchdown) and the Detroit defense is the most injury-riddled unit in the league. Points will be scored here, and Samuel will be needed as a surrogate runner as well.
The Aaron Rodgers to Adams reboot took some time to come together, but we’re here now — Adams has double-digit targets in 6-of-7 games and five touchdowns over the last four starts. You can understand why Garrett Wilson is thinking about a trade — Adams has essentially shoved him out of the way. Buffalo’s slot coverage has been a problem all season, and that’s where Adams makes his hay.
Obviously Justin Jefferson is the alpha in this receiving room, but make room for Addison too — he’s the WR6 in half-point PPR scoring over the last six weeks. With Sam Darnold in sharp form and head coach Kevin O’Connell dialing up big plays, Addison makes for a confident start against anyone. Green Bay’s pass defense has been excellent, but offenses control outcomes more than defenses. I’m not sitting Addison anywhere.
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Another Dorian Thompson-Robinson start is a loss for the Cleveland passing game (I can’t start Jerry Jeudy), but DTR’s struggles didn’t hold Ford back last week — Ford still managed 131 total yards and a touchdown against Cincinnati. Look for 15-20 Ford touches no matter the game script against Miami; he’s a capable runner and receiver.
He’ll probably have to share with Tony Pollard again, but Spears is carving out a spot at the goal line, gobbling up four touchdowns the last two weeks. He’s also had double-digit touches in both of those games, which is often the tipping point where a bench player becomes a viable flex option.
He’s added a running component to his game of late, with touchdowns in two straight starts and 68 yards in the upset win that ended Arizona’s season. The Buccaneers are the No. 3 matchup for opposing quarterbacks, too. Young’s spotty career to this point kept him from being included in the green section, but he’s a viable streamer for those in deeper pools or two-quarterback leagues.
I get that it’s difficult to trust the Raiders offense on a week-to-week basis, but Abdullah has a lock on a pass-catching role and he was surprisingly handy as a spot runner against Jacksonville. And you certainly want to start running backs against a New Orleans team that’s fallen apart in recent weeks.
He’s been in the 18-20 point range in four of his past five starts, showing star quality despite an ordinary set of talent around him. Maye’s athleticism and resourceful running give him a nifty backboard, similar to what we saw from Bo Nix earlier this year. Imagine what Maye can do in future seasons if the Patriots fix the offensive line and land at least one downfield playmaker. I’m unafraid to use him in a pinch against the Chargers.
Understand that the Minnesota secondary is vulnerable — the Vikings love to bring blitz pressure but it often allows big plays downfield. But the Packers have redefined themselves since the bye week, going 5-1 and throwing just 143 passes over that span (23.8 per week). Love offers little as a rusher and his passing volume might have a reasonable cap on it, unless the Vikings race out to a significant early lead. I’d rather bet on someone with a more plausible ceiling.
It was fun to see Murray back to his scrambling ways last week after several weeks of limited running, but remember, the Cardinals were eliminated from playoff contention after losing that game to Carolina. Murray is also working behind a patchwork offensive line that won’t have either of its starting tackles. With nothing to play for and key teammates missing, I don’t want Murray in my championship lineup.
The usage here doesn’t make any sense — Cooper absorbed 14 targets in the pinball game against the Rams in Week 14 but he’s had just two looks since (and one piddly catch). The Bills prefer a rotation with their receiver room, and if you have to rely on one of their pass-catchers, Khalil Shakir is the right answer. I’d have no problem dropping Cooper in any format, even if my opponent had a shot to add him before Sunday.
The New England offensive line can’t be trusted and Stevenson has to share work with Antonio Gibson — not to mention the 20-40 yards Drake Maye will likely run for. Stevenson is merely the RB31 since Week 10 — not an automatic fantasy starter. He’s also had an ongoing fumbling problem.
It’s not a kill shot when two backs share work for an offense, but when you see three, it’s time to flee. Jaleel McLaughlin (quad) is expected back this week, which means Sean Payton has three cards to play with his running-back rotation. Cincinnati is a good matchup but there’s no discernible pattern to the usage here.
He was a reasonable play last week after 11 catches in Week 15, but a drop and a fumble led to a fourth-quarter benching, and he’s not 100% healthy either. The electric Brian Thomas Jr. is the obvious target hog in this offense; if I have to look deeper, I’d prefer WR Parker Washington over Strange.
