Another week, another round of crucially important start/sit decisions. To help you make them, here’s a look at six players with bust potential in Week 13.
Something to keep in mind as you’re reading: a “fade” or “bust” designation doesn’t automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or available options on your waiver wire.
OK, OK. Hear me out.
This is not at all a call to sit fantasy football’s overall QB1 on the year — not by any stretch of the imagination. However, my duty as the resident “busts and fades” columnist is to warn of potential landmines in your lineups — to warn you of not just players you should avoid entirely for fantasy, but to also advise when the stats say a player’s ceiling could be lower than it usually is. After all, that knowledge can change the way you approach setting the rest of your lineup.
Lamar Jackson has had the safest floor of any fantasy quarterback this season; he’s finished outside of the top 12 just once (Week 11 vs. Steelers), and has finished as a top-five QB in seven of 12 games this season — the perfect blend of upside and safety at the position we’ve hardly ever seen. This week, Jackson will face a surging Eagles defense that has made big-time strides in both their coverage and rushing defense through the second half of the season.
Heat check 🔥 You’re still starting Lamar Jackson in every one of your season-long fantasy lineups; just brace yourself for a potential down week.
James Conner’s fantasy managers have been on a wild ride so far this season, with his production anywhere between his 21-122-1 line in Week 2 on to his 7 carry, 8 rushing-yard outing in Week 12. Like I said — a roller coaster. It does feel like the down weeks are getting a little more frequent, however. Over his past four games, he’s averaged just over 50 rush yards per game (37.3 yards receiving). He’s averaged 3.53 yards per carry in that span and a 22.8% stuff rate that ranks sixth-highest among the 26 RBs with 50+ carries dating back to Week 8.
In addition to Conner’s waning efficiency in recent weeks, he’s got a challenging matchup on deck with the Minnesota Vikings — one of the most formidable rushing defenses in the league this season. The Vikings lead the league with an 86.1 PFF run defense grade, the fourth-lowest average depth of tackle (3.41 yards) and a league-low 27 missed tackles. Minnesota’s defense is tied for a league-low five rush TDs allowed this year, allowing the second-lowest YPC average (3.6), second-fewest yards after contact per attempt (2.4) and third-lowest explosive run rate (9.4%), all amounting to the second-fewest fantasy PPG to opposing RBs.
Heat check 🔥 As the starting running back on a good (albeit inconsistent) offense, it’s challenging to leave Conner on your bench. However, given that all 32 teams are playing this week, you’ve got more options than you did in Week 12. If you’ve got better flex options (Bucky Irving, for example), don’t hesitate to start them over Conner this week.
I have a distinct feeling that Jeremy McNichols will be on plenty of sleepers lists this week as an “in case of emergency” button. Commanders starting RB Brian Robinson Jr. is dealing with a high ankle sprain, and his status is up in the air for Week 13. Meanwhile, teammate Austin Ekeler is in the concussion protocol after suffering a brutal hit on a kickoff return in the same matchup. That leaves McNichols, Mr. RB3, to fill their shoes.
Even if McNichols gets the start in Week 13, he’s got a challenging matchup on deck up against the Tennessee Titans, who have been a stout rushing defense this season. The Titans have the fourth-most-highly-graded rushing defense unit this year, tied for the fifth-lowest YPC average allowed (4.0), seventh-fewest rush yards after contact per attempt (2.7) with the fourth-fewest tackles for a loss or no gain in that span per PFF.
Heat check 🔥 McNichols remains on fantasy benches in most fantasy leagues, even if he does get the start and will see volume.
It’s no secret that the Washington Commanders’ Kliff Kingsbury-led offense has cooled since their red-hot start to the season. Terry McLaurin in particular has been a huge beneficiary of improved quarterback play, sitting pretty as the overall WR5 in half-PPR scoring formats, averaging a career-best 15.8 YPR, already having tied his previous career high of seven receiving touchdowns through just 12 games.
The Titans are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WRs, yet to give up a single game of 18+ fantasy points any opponents this year, despite having faced some solid competition (Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Garrett Wilson). This team is allowing the third-lowest successful play rate in the league on targets to WRs this season at 45.7% per NFL Next Gen Stats, giving up the fourth-fewest yards per target and the fifth-lowest completion rate on such plays all season (59%).
Heat check 🔥 Slot McLaurin into your Week 13 lineups, but with the expectation that the best bet for a big fantasy day is another 86-yard house call to save the day.
There’s no doubt that Buffalo Bills WR Khalil Shakir has been one of the safest targets in the league this year. He’s got reliable hands for days with an 87.5% catch rate dating back to last season that leads all WRs (min. 50 targets, inc. postseason). He’s also incredibly efficient with his opportunities and a 124.5 passer rating when targeted (third-highest) while averaging 7.7 yards after the catch per reception (fourth-highest). However, Week 13 could challenge his typically safe floor.
Shakir’s consistent volume (7+ targets in each of the past five games) has made him a popular flex/sleeper option in any given week. However, the San Francisco 49ers could be a limiting factor for him in Week 13, even if there are some vacated targets over the middle in the absence of an injured Dalton Kincaid. Though the Niners are currently a bit of a dumpster fire, LB Fred Warner remains the glue holding their middle-of-the-field coverage together. Warner continues his standing as one of the best coverage linebackers in the league, and he’s limited slot receivers in a big way. Dating back to Week 7, the 49ers are allowing the second-lowest EPA per play on slot targets (-0.176), giving up 0 TDs, 3 INTs and a league-low 46.3 passer rating on such plays. Shakir, who operates primarily out of the slot at a 75.8% clip this season, could see a decline in his efficiency in this spot.
Heat check 🔥 Shakir is a fine bye-week fill-in, but with all 32 teams in the mix, his ceiling isn’t quite high enough to risk a down week in a challenging matchup.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a Week 12 bye, which means TE Evan Engram is freshly rested and ready to take on all the work he can handle. There should be plenty of work in store for him this week, as the team received more bad injury news ahead of their bye, losing WR Gabe Davis for the season with a knee injury after already missing Christian Kirk (also out for the season with a broken collarbone). Even if he does see some decent volume, though, it might not be a great matchup for a big-time fantasy day.
In Week 13, the Jaguars get a challenging intradivisional matchup with the Houston Texans — a matchup that has made for some disappointing TE performances for even the league’s best. Houston ranks 27th with 7.51 fantasy points per game allowed to opposing TEs (3.3-25.5-0.4 average line), while averaging the third-lowest EPA per dropback and a league-low 39.1% successful play rate on targets to the TE position per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Heat check 🔥 Engram should have a solid floor in half- and full-PPR scoring formats due to the necessity of target volume, but don’t expect big-time efficiency. This defense has allowed just three TEs all season to surpass the 50-receiving-yard mark.
