Welcome to Week 3! As we progress further into the fantasy football season, the “make or break” list will start to take on a different from. Once heralded superstars become riskier plays, role players ascend into flex-worthy territory and defensive matchups are a bigger factor. Coming off a week with injuries across all positions, many fantasy managers are dipping into their bench and looking for upside to help push through to victory.
This week’s list of players presents several intriguing challenges. Are we willing to risk it all with a boom receiver having shockingly low production? Should we trust volume and touches for inconsistent veterans? Can we rely on an emerging rookie?
The Bengals’ backfield has been nothing short of disappointing. Moss has claimed the lead role, but let’s be honest, there hasn’t been much of a “winner” here. In Week 1, Moss salvaged his fantasy day with a touchdown on what was an otherwise underwhelming performance of just nine carries for 44 yards and two receptions for 17 yards.
Week 2 didn’t offer much improvement with 12 carries for only 34 yards and one reception for 13 for a grand total of 5.2 fantasy points. Moss has out-touched Chase Brown 24 to 10, so the usage is there, but we need more than just touches to consider him a strong play.
The best cure for an underwhelming stretch of production is a dream matchup, and Washington could be the exact matchup Moss needs to sneak into low-end RB1 territory. Washington just gave up 95 yards on 16 carries to Devin Singletary, averaging 5.94 yards per attempt and a touchdown. If there’s a game for Moss to finally pay off in his lead role, this is the game.
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I want to believe in a Rams receiver. Scratch that — I need to believe in a Rams receiver. All offseason we debated on where draft Puka Nacua versus a healthy Cooper Kupp, and now, we’re left with neither. If you’ve followed my work in the past, you know I’m a big advocate for Robinson and believe in his viability as the Rams’ WR3.
This week, the Rams take on the 49ers, and while the Niners’ defense is strong, they’re not invincible. Week 1 saw Allan Lazard snag two touchdowns while Garrett Wilson racked up 11 targets against them. In Week 2, Justin Jefferson thrived, and even Jalen Nailor managed to make an impact. It’s possible that Robinson can provide flex-worthy value.
I won’t underplay this — I’m highly concerned for everyone outside of Kyren Williams moving forward. When the Rams’ offensive line struggles, Stafford struggles. My level of trust in Robinson actually lies within the Rams’ offensive line’s ability to give Stafford enough time to actually find Robinson. Starting left tackle Alaric Jackson returns this week from his early-season suspension, but they still have two offensive linemen on IR and another expected to miss time. Robinson is too volatile this weak and leans more toward a break than a make.
Brian Thomas was in my Week 1 “Make or Break” column as a make, and he immediately paid off. Thomas’ output wasn’t massive, but he immediately separated himself as the big playmaker in the Jags offense. Thomas is averaging 11.55 fantasy points per game in half-PPR, sitting at WR25 and the third-highest scoring rookie of the season. That’s a fantastic start to the season for Thomas, but making him a weekly must-start isn’t that simple.
In a good matchup, I’m all for flexing Thomas. However, this week he faces a Buffalo defense that has been stout against the pass. The Jags rank eighth-lowest in total pass attempts (51) through two weeks, and that low passing volume has been spread fairly evenly throughout the receiving corps. Thomas has just four targets in each game this season. He’s managed to make the most of his slim opportunities, but that type of production does make him a more volatile fantasy asset that could break your lineup this week.
Volatility has been an accepted part of Amari Cooper’s game, but 2024 has gotten off to a rough start even by his standards. In fact, this is the worst start to a season in Cooper’s career. Cooper is the Browns’ target leader through two games with 15 targets but just 5 receptions — an abysmal 33% catch rate.
Deshaun Watson continues to struggle and upticks of involvement from Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore have taken away that typical Amari Cooper ceiling. Cooper has transitioned from a must-start to a lineup liability.
The increase of involvement from Jeudy and Moore wouldn’t pose a significant issue if Watson showed any promise of upside. Watson has failed to surpass 186 passing yards with a shockingly low 4.5 yards per attempt and a 58.2% completion rate.
This week the Browns have an excellent matchup against the Giants and starting Cooper should be a no-brainer. Cooper is a true borderline make or break. With injuries across the league, you may be forced to start him. If you have the luxury of pivoting to another option, do so until Watson shows seem level of competent play.
Could Mike Gesicki achieve the impossible and give us a consistently start-worthy tight end in Cincinnati?
It seems like a pipe dream, but Gesicki’s early-season usage is very intriguing. In Week 2, Gesicki had seven receptions on nine targets for 91 yards. In Week 1, Gesicki had just three receptions on four targets for 18 yards but had a big touchdown overturned. If he had been able to hold onto the ball, it would’ve been another top-10, double-digit point performance.
While we can’t base value on “if he caught the ball,” we can use it to gauge his overall role within the offense. It’s very early in the season but if the Bengals have finally found a match at tight end, Gesicki could have offer consistent volume in a desolate tight end landscape.
Gesicki may take a step back when Tee Higgins returns but Higgins’ status for Week 3 is still unclear. Even if Higgins returns this week, Higgins has typically returned from injury in limited fashion in past seasons. The Bengals have a fantastic matchup against Washington, and Gesicki could have top-five upside again.
