Fantasy football sit-and-start advice should always be relative and league-dependent. Many starts and sits are obvious too, so we will instead focus on fringe options in this column, the ones that take real thought. Good luck with your Week 4 lineups!
London ranks third in first-read target rate since Week 1 when Kirk Cousins was more limited. He also owns a 35% air yards share and a 60% end zone target share over those two games. Kyle Pitts isn’t commanding targets while sporting a zero separation score against both zone and man coverage. Meanwhile, Bijan Robinson is dealing with a shoulder injury (and still searching for the second top-five weekly fantasy finish of his career). Atlanta is also due for positive third-down regression, so London is a strong start this week.
Johnson led all wide receivers in expected fantasy points during his first start with Andy Dalton. He saw a whopping 37.8% target share after seeing 21.8% with Bryce Young, who was clearly holding this Dave Canales offense back. Johnson also saw a 44.8% first-read target rate and a 10.2 aDOT while finishing with a career-high 122 receiving yards — his first 100-yard game since Week 13, 2021. He nearly had two more touchdowns Sunday and is tied for the league lead in end-zone targets.
Dalton provided 29 catchable targets in Week 3 after Young totaled 38 over the first two games of the season. Johnson is an elite separator and will see even more targets with Adam Thielen on IR. Throw away Johnson’s stats with Young (and with Kenny Pickett for that matter), as his fantasy value dramatically improved with Carolina’s quarterback switch.
Johnson has historically seen a big increase in production when his QB isn’t pressured, so the Bengals look like a good matchup this week. Johnson sat out Thursday’s practice with a groin injury as a precaution due to field conditions, but he says he’s good to go.
Moore took a backseat to the emerging Rome Odunze last week, but he’s in a good spot Sunday. Keenan Allen is unlikely to be 100% if he’s able to return from his heel injury, and Odunze was a late-week addition to the injury report with a hip issue. The Rams are missing Aaron Donald badly, allowing an NFL-high 9.8 YPA and the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Caleb Williams showed growth last week, and the Bears can’t run the ball. It’s a favorable setup for Moore (and Odunze if healthy).
Jones has looked terrific this season, and he saw 25 opportunities last week while getting stopped at the one-yard line twice. Sam Darnold’s 10.3% TD rate will regress, so more touchdowns are coming for Jones. He gets a revenge game this week against a Packers team allowing 4.7 YPC. Green Bay will be starting Malik Willis or a compromised Jordan Love against a surging Brian Flores defense, so game script could prove favorable as well.
Akers was shut down (aside from a TD catch) by a stout Minnesota run defense last week, but he saw 12 of 15 RB opportunities before sitting out the fourth quarter of a blowout. Game script should be much more favorable this week, with Houston six-point home favorites against a reeling Jaguars team traveling during a short week. Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce look unlikely to return, so Akers should be Houston’s workhorse again Sunday. Tank Dell also appears unlikely to play, and Nico Collins is dealing with a hamstring injury, so Akers will be busy.
The Texans have the third-highest implied team total (25.8 points), and the Jaguars have yielded the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs this season, so Akers is a fine start this week.
Fields hasn’t exploded in fantasy yet, but he’s playing well enough to keep the starting job, and big rushing games are coming. Volume has been an issue for Fields, but Colts opponents are averaging 25.7 more plays per game this season. Fields was a top-four fantasy QB during five weeks last season, and he only started and finished 12 games. There’s real fantasy upside here once Pittsburgh’s defense eventually allows more than 10 points in a game. Fields has averaged the most scrambles per game since 2020, and he’s historically performed much better against zone defenses, which the Colts have used at the league’s fifth-highest rate. I have Fields as a top-eight QB this week.
However, Anthony Richardson and Michael Pittman Jr. both deserve bench consideration. Fantasy managers should exercise patience with Richardson, but he gets yet another tough matchup this week. Pittsburgh has allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks while recording twice as many picks as TD passes. Meanwhile, Pittman saw just five targets with Josh Downs (31.3% target rate) back last week, and he’ll likely be shadowed by Joey Porter Jr. on Sunday.
Sutton is due for touchdown regression moving forward, but he’ll likely be an even better buy-low in fantasy after this week. The Jets have allowed the fewest fantasy points to perimeter receivers this year, where Sutton has run 82% of his routes.
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Javonte Williams should continue to see snaps given his pass protection, but it’s safe to say he still hasn’t fully recovered from his multi-ligament surgery as hoped. Williams looks slow and keeps slipping while trying to plant on his surgically repaired knee. Tyler Badie (among others) looks like the superior RB in Denver. Williams’ long run of the season has gone for nine yards, and it came during his first carry of the year on a play that should’ve resulted in a touchdown.
This matchup will be slow-paced, and the Broncos have the second-lowest implied team total with a lowly 16.0 points. Sutton and Williams are bench candidates.
Goedert should be busy again Sunday with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both unlikely to play. Jahan Dotson has been one of the worst target earners since entering the league, and Geodert was terrific last week while recording a career-high in catches (10) and receiving yards (170). Tight end production has been way down, and now Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride are injured. Goedert is my No. 1 tight end this week.
Mike Evans is in store for a big bounce-back performance should his health cooperate.
Conner is coming off a fantasy dud when the Cardinals had the ball just 23 minutes, but he gets a much easier matchup this week. The Commanders have allowed the second-most yards per play on defense, including 5.1 YPC. The Cardinals have the league’s highest projected point total this week (27.0), and Conner could be even busier than usual with Trey McBride likely out and Marvin Harrison Jr. dealing with a thigh ailment. Conner was a top-10 fantasy back each of the first two weeks of the season, so he’s a must-start against a shaky Washington defense that’s traveling after playing Monday night.
Aiyuk disappointed last week, when he took a backseat to Jauan Jennings with Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle out in a highly favorable matchup. But Aiyuk saw 10 targets, and Brock Purdy missed him wide-open for a 50+ yard touchdown. Aiyuk also finished with the top separation win rate of any game this season last week. He’s finally in full shape after missing all summer practices, and Samuel remains out (and Kittle likely won’t be 100% if he returns).
Purdy has been fantastic this season, and he’s throwing deeper and targeting his wide receivers more than ever with Christian McCaffrey sidelined. San Francisco gets the league’s biggest pass-funnel defense this week. Aiyuk could be shadowed by Christian Gonzalez, but the corner is dealing with a shoulder injury and isn’t a matchup to keep Aiyuk out of fantasy lineups. Stick with BA.
Dobbins’ weekly backfield share is moving in the right direction, and he’s impressed while returning from another injury. But Justin Herbert is questionable to play (and even more questionable to finish if he does) with his high-ankle sprain, and three L.A. offensive linemen are injured, with LT Joe Alt likely out. Game script could be a problem, and the Chargers have a lowly implied team total (16.3 points). Kansas City is allowing just 59.0 RB rushing yards per game and the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. This is a week to use alternatives to Dobbins if possible.
White saw most of the backfield touches last week, but he also saw a season-low 24% of the snaps and ran just three routes. Game script could be different this week, but Las Vegas is the worst rushing team in football. The Raiders are getting an NFL-low 2.8 YPC and the lowest EPA/rush by a significant margin. White is tough to trust in fantasy lineups right now.
Kincaid has seen a steady increase in targets over the first three games, including nearly matching last year’s total in the end zone. Tight ends have averaged 10.3 targets, 7.7 catches and 93.3 yards versus the Ravens this season, and that includes a matchup with Travis Kelce. Baltimore is also a pass-funnel defense, with opponents sporting a +9% pass rate over expectation. The Ravens are allowing a league-low 39.0 RB rushing yards per game but the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, so Kincaid could break out Sunday.
Waddle has yet to see more than five targets in a game this season, and he’s going to struggle to help fantasy managers while Tua Tagovailoa is out (unless Tyler Huntley can save us). Waddle has averaged an anemic 33.5 yards without Tagovailoa, and the Titans have yielded the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. This matchup has one of the lowest over/unders (36.5) of the year, so Waddle once again belongs on fantasy benches.
Smith wasn’t needed much last week after Seattle opened with an early 17-3 lead, but he’s played well during his first year in Ryan Grubb’s system. The Seahawks could struggle to run against a pass-funnel Lions defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. Detroit’s offense should put up points at home, so Smith’s volume should be there while playing indoors Monday night; he has a 16:2 TD:INT ratio with a 119.7 Passer Rating over six dome games since joining Seattle.
Smith is a top-12 QB this week.
