Another week, another round of crucially important start/sit decisions. To help you make them, here’s a look at five players (and an entire position) with bust potential in Week 5.
Something to keep in mind as you’re reading: a “fade” or “bust” designation doesn’t automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or available options on your waiver wire.
Through four weeks, Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold has revived his reputation in the NFL, leading all quarterbacks with 11 passing touchdowns and ranking top three in pass yards per attempt. Who had that on their 2024 NFL season bingo card? Not I! Darnold has shined in HC Kevin O’Connell’s system, on pace for career highs in just about every category, including NFL passer rating (118.9), where he held a previous career-high of 92.6. That’s translated to a shockingly proficient fantasy season; he’s currently ranked as the QB4 while ranking third in fantasy points per dropback (0.68)
Unfortunately for those fantasy managers who managed to snag this QB value on the waiver wire, Darnold will face his most challenging matchup yet in Week 5 up against the New York Jets secondary. This unit is allowing the second-lowest EPA per dropback in the league at -0.29 while forcing the second-lowest successful pass rate at 33.8% per Next Gen Stats. They’ve held proficient passer Brock Purdy to just 10.34 fantasy points in Week 1; we should expect a similar drop in production for Darnold this week, too.
Heat check 🔥 Darnold has yet to finish lower than QB14 in any week this season, but even with bye weeks kicking off, there are better options out there. Consider Joe Flacco (if he gets the start) against a struggling Jacksonville secondary or Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence in the same matchup as possible plays with higher upside.
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The entire New York Jets offense has been disappointing this season, but hardly any player has disappointed as much as RB Breece Hall — drafted as a top-five pick in most fantasy football leagues. Among RBs with 50+ rush attempts this year, Hall has the second-highest stuff rate (26.8%), third-lowest first-down/touchdown rate (16.1%) and he’s tied for the second-lowest yards per carry average (3.1) and fourth-lowest missed forced tackle rate (13%). Those inefficiencies have been made only more obvious by the emergence of rookie Braelon Allen, who’s generally looked like the better back through the first four weeks of the season.
The Jets get a matchup this week against the Minnesota Vikings, who have been a soul-crushing defense under Brian Flores this season. They rank top three in the league in EPA per play against (-0.182) while allowing a league-low 21.3% scoring drive percentage to their opponents. As you can imagine, this isn’t a great spot for a bounce-back performance for an offense still finding its footing. The Vikings have allowed the third-fewest yards before contact per attempt (1.0), limiting opponents to just 3.8 rush yards per attempt (tied, third-lowest) and an 8.7% explosive run rate ranked only behind the Baltimore Ravens. (more on their rushing defense in just a moment!).
Heat check 🔥 You can’t in good faith bench Breece Hall, but it’s wise to temper expectations given a challenging matchup and his recent inefficiencies. To help offset this, consider some potentially riskier flex plays with higher upside rather than playing it safe.
The Cincinnati Bengals have leaned on fifth-year RB Zack Moss to lead their new-look backfield so far this season, and to the delight of fantasy football managers, he’s scored in three of his four starts as the RB18 on the year thus far. Despite that standing, Moss hasn’t been particularly efficient, and now, teammate Chase Brown is coming off a Week 4 outing where he had a career-high 15 rush attempts — a sign we could be seeing the workload even out in this backfield moving forward.
Making matters even worse, the Bengals lost starting right tackle Trent Brown for the year with a knee injury in Week 4. Rookie Amarius Mims has stepped up in his place, but currently has the sixth-lowest PFF run-blocking grade among the 199 offensive linemen to play 20+ snaps this year.
Compounding those concerns further is the matchup on deck for Cincy’s offense. This week, Moss gets a date with the Baltimore Ravens, which doesn’t bode well for any NFL running back, let alone one splitting a backfield as we’re seeing play out in Cincinnati right now. Baltimore’s giving up a league-low 3.0 yards per rush attempt, 1.4% explosive run rate and 1.9 yards after contact per attempt that’s translated to the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing RBs.
Heat check 🔥 Moss is a fine flex play considering there are some key players out on a bye, but given a challenging matchup and the upward trend of work for Brown, I have Moss ranked as an RB3 this week.
Consider this your official warning against the Sam Darnold-Jordan Addison stack in DFS this week, folks. Addison returned from an ankle injury in Week 4 and immediately scored two touchdowns for a top-four weekly finish. Fantasy managers will want to proceed with caution, however, given this matchup with the Jets, and the somewhat flukey nature of his path to his big fantasy day last week. One of those touchdowns also came on a carry inside the 10 — just the second rush attempt of his young career.
Among all players with 4+ targets in Week 4, Addison was tied for the fourth-lowest target rate on routes run (12.9%), meaning while he was out there, my man was doing a lot of cardio — a lot of route running without reaping the rewards of targets, which ultimately pave the way for fantasy scoring.
Heat check 🔥 The Jets are a challenging defensive matchup, so if you’re feeling confident that extra defensive attention for star Justin Jefferson should leave him open for more work in Week 5, it’s a fair argument. I’ll be starting Addison in my flex in plenty of leagues, just knowing that he’s probably not bound for another WR1 week in this setting.
Oh, and did I mention the fact that this matchup is an international game? We know those are always a little weird.
With bye weeks finally rearing their ugly heads this week, fantasy managers may be forced to look toward mid-tier depth plays. Las Vegas Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers would probably be on the list of considerations most weeks, especially given the unlikeliness that Davante Adams plays in Week 5, making Meyers the lead option.
Unfortunately, though Meyers has the chance to lead the team in targets once again this week, he’ll also have the misfortune of facing Denver Broncos star cornerback Pat Surtain II as a likely focal point in coverage. Among cornerbacks with at least 100 coverage snaps this season, Surtain has forced the fourth-highest tight-window throw rate (45.5%) per NFL Next Gen Stats, ranking top-eight in yards per coverage snap and tied for the fourth-lowest average yards of separation (2.2).
Heat check 🔥 Meyers should fall out of flex consideration in most leagues, barring tremendous desperation.
This is where I usually suggest a tight end fade. This week, we’re headed in another direction, perhaps born of my own frustrations: we’re fading every analyst in the fantasy space giving you a “lock” at the position.
There just … isn’t one this year.
Here’s a look at your top five tight ends of the 2024 season (half-PPR scoring formats) and where they were drafted at the TE position:
TE1: Dallas Goedert, 42.1 points — ADP 111.5, TE11
TE2: George Kittle, 35.6 points — ADP 51.8, TE5
TE3: Brock Bowers, 32.8 points — ADP 111.8, TE12
TE4: Cole Kmet, 31.2 points — 130.6, TE21
TE5: Pat Freiermuth, 30.1 points — ADP 128.7, TE19
Meanwhile, Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta and Mark Andrews have each been outscored by 33-year-old Zach Ertz. Yikes.
The tight end position is the wild, wild west of football right now. Tread with caution.
