Fantasy football sit-and-start advice should always be relative and league-dependent. Many starts and sits are obvious too, so we will instead focus on fringe options in this column, the ones that take real thought. Good luck with your Week 5 lineups!
Keep the disappointing Garrett Wilson in fantasy lineups versus a pass-funnel Minnesota defense allowing the most passing yards in the league and the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Vikings opponents have the league’s highest pass rate (71%) this season.
Addison is coming off a two-touchdown game, but he saw a modest five opportunities. Sam Darnold’s 10.4% TD rate is miles above his career mark (3.9%), and he’s due to regress as Aaron Jones scores more touchdowns. The Jets have allowed the second-fewest passing yards and the fewest fantasy points to perimeter receivers this season, and Minnesota’s “home” game will be played outdoors.
Hubbard has seen a big increase in usage and has been the No. 4 fantasy back over the last two weeks with Andy Dalton. Jonathon Brooks’ practice window wasn’t opened, and both Miles Sanders (illness) and Diontae Johnson (ankle) are banged up. Chicago is a run-funnel defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks but the ninth-most to RBs. Hubbard is a top-12 back this week.
Higgins has a much higher target share (23.5%), first-read target rate (31.0%) and air yards share (34.9%) than Ja’Marr Chase (18.3%, 24.4%, 24.2%) this season. It’s just a two-game sample, but Higgins was returning from an injury and should be getting healthier now. Higgins is the WR63, but he’s the WR5 in expected fantasy points.
The Bengals have the second-highest neutral pass rate in the league, and Joe Burrow’s wrist looks healthy while leading the league in end-zone targets. The Ravens have yielded the third-most passing yards and the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, and their opponents have the second-highest pass rate (68%) in the league.
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Sit Zack Moss, who’s now in an even split with the more explosive Chase Brown and gets a Baltimore defense ceding by far the fewest rushing yards (42.5 per game) and the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs.
Kincaid led the Bills in snap% before the fourth quarter of last week’s blowout loss. He also finished with a team-high seven targets, and he might be busier Sunday with Khalil Shakir missing practice this week. Kincaid is an easy start among a weak group of tight ends right now.
Thomas Jr. led Jacksonville with a 33.3% first-read target rate last week, and he leads the team in target share (27%) this season. The rookie has impressed, and the Colts are a favorable matchup. Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby and Gabe Davis are all battling shoulder injuries, so BTJ should be busy Sunday. This matchup should be fast-paced, and Indianapolis opponents have averaged by far the most plays per game this season.
Kirk would benefit should Evan Engram and Indy slot corner Kenny Moore sit again. Both Jacksonville wideouts can be top-20 fantasy WRs in this matchup.
Stevenson isn’t without real risk given he’s fumbled four straight games, and coach Jerod Mayo said starting Antonio Gibson is “under consideration.” Gibson has played well this season in limited work, but he’s literally the only running back with fewer attempts per fumble since Stevenson entered the league. Stevenson has faced a tough schedule and returns home Sunday for just the second time this season. He gets a rare matchup in which game script could be favorable, as Miami’s offense has looked like the league’s worst without Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs this season, so stick with Stevenson this week.
Cooper dropped a 36-yard touchdown in Week 1, was robbed of a 65-yard TD in Week 3 and had an 82-yard score called back by penalty last week. He’s the WR48 but the WR8 in expected fantasy points. The Browns get a Washington secondary allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. The Commanders have also yielded 7.9 YPA and a 10:0 TD:INT ratio. Jerome Ford is a sneaky fantasy start this week, but Cleveland figures to be throwing frequently while facing the league’s best offense.
White played just two snaps after losing a fumble early in the fourth quarter last week, and coach Antonio Pierce said Alexander Mattison deserves and will get more reps. White has by far the worst rushing DVOA in the league, and Mattison’s success rate is nearly twice as high. The Broncos have allowed just 22 points combined over the last three games and the fewest yards per play this season. White, who is also dealing with an injury picked up in practice, remains the RB37 in expert consensus ranks this week (behind Alexander Mattison), which is also a testament to how thin running back is.
Williams is a sneaky start, as he saw more work (and looked better) after Tyler Badie suffered an injury last week. The Broncos are favored and have allowed the fewest yards per play in the league this season. The Raiders have ceded the eighth-most fantasy points to RBs and enter without Davante Adams (and maybe Maxx Crosby) and with a banged-up offensive line, so game script should be favorable for Williams.
Purdy is due for touchdown regression. He has the second-most passing yards and is leading the league in YPA by a full half-yard. He also leads the NFL in adjusted EPA/play and has 257 more air yards than any other quarterback. Purdy is throwing by far the deepest downfield among the leaders in percentage of air yards deemed catchable. After recording the best YPA (9.6) season of all time last year (minimum 350 pass attempts), Purdy’s remarkable efficiency (9.3 YPA) has remained despite the 49ers ranking 31st in yards after the catch and Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle all missing time.
San Francisco has the league’s highest implied team total (28.8 points) by almost a field goal this week. Arizona has allowed the second-most YPA (8.5) and the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, so Purdy is my QB4 this week — comfortably ahead of the struggling Kyler Murray (who’s getting 6.0 YPA with just one touchdown during non-scripted opening plays!).
Wicks led the league in air yards last week while seeing a team-high 13 targets after Christian Watson went down with an injury. Wicks has suffered multiple drops this year (he ranks dead last in ESPN’s catch score), but he’s also led Green Bay wide receivers in target share by a wide margin when on the field over the last two seasons. Wicks was top 20 in fantasy points per target as a rookie last year, and he ranks first this season in expected fantasy points per route run; Watson and Wicks have a combined NFL-high end-zone target rate, and Watson is now sidelined.
The Packers offense looks awesome with Jordan Love, while their defense appears shaky, so it’s a nice carnival setup for Green Bay pass catchers (Tucker Kraft is a top 10 tight end this week). The Rams have yielded an NFL-high 9.1 YPA, the most EPA/pass and the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, so Wicks has WR1 upside this week.
Jordan Whittington is an option for those in deeper leagues, as his route participation jumped to 97% last week. Whittington was the star of the preseason, and he’s earned a 25% TPRR with Cooper Kupp off the field. The Packers have ceded the seventh-most fantasy points to wideouts (and the third-lowest EPA/rush), so Whittington is a sleeper.
Smith leads the NFL in completions, attempts and passing yards, and his lowly 2.5% TD rate is sure to regress. He has the lowest off-target% on throws 10+ air yards this season behind an improved offensive line. Seattle ranks third in plays per game and first in pass rate over expectation. The Seahawks are loaded at wide receiver and unlikely to continue scoring 67% of their touchdowns on the ground (Kenneth Walker was limited at practice Thursday). Seattle has the fourth-highest implied team total (25.0 points), so Smith is a top 12 QB this week.
Robinson has the fifth-most targets in the league despite having a teammate on pace to shatter the NFL record for single-season targets. Robinson will be extra busy Sunday with Malik Nabers a longshot to play and Devin Singletary highly questionable. Robinson is worth starting if needed this week, especially in PPR leagues. Meanwhile, Tyrone Tracy would also be a deep sleeper should Singletary sit.
Prescott’s YPA has dropped nearly a full yard when on the road throughout his career, and he’s averaging just 200.0 passing yards over two games away from home this season. He’ll be missing Brandin Cooks on Sunday, and CeeDee Lamb has failed to separate as usual so far in 2024. Pittsburgh has allowed just four passing scores on the year and only 3.7 yards per play at home. Steelers opponents have averaged the fewest plays per game this season — 20 fewer than teams facing the Colts!
Dowdle has earned a bigger share of Dallas’ backfield over the last two weeks, but Pittsburgh has ceded the second-fewest YPC (3.7), just one rushing TD and the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Dowdle can be started if needed during bye weeks given the depth of running back and his expected volume, but he has just two red-zone touches all season.
Kelce has been the TE14 in fantasy points per game to open the year (while also starring in Grotesquerie) despite tight end production being significantly down across the league. But his first-read target rate jumped to 46.7% last week when Rashee Rice left injured early. Rookie Xavier Worthy is struggling to earn targets and has the third-lowest win rate in the league. Kansas City will also likely be relying on 29-yard-old Kareem Hunt (who was limited in Thursday’s practice) as their lead back, so Kelce is suddenly the feature of the Chiefs offense again with Rice out.
