Here are 5 things experts got wrong about Rutgers football in 2023

Posted by Admin July 2, 2024 Football

Riding a 6-3 start, Rutgers coach Greg Schiano reminded everyone of some preseason predictions last season. His larger point — the incremental progress his “developmental” team made throughout the season — mostly got lost in a winding answer during a lively late-season press conference.

But it won’t get lost again. Let this serve as a pre-training camp reminder of Schiano’s hypothetical situation from that day in mid-November, leading up to his team’s showdown at Penn State. For a refresher, Rutgers was coming off a 22-0 loss to Iowa, falling to 6-4 after winning six of its first eight games and clinching bowl eligibility before Halloween. The loss to Iowa was one of four to close out the regular season. Still, the arrow was very much pointing up for a team that had not reached bowl eligibility since 2014.

“If all of us were together on July 31, and we were hanging out talking and somebody said, ‘okay, you’re going to the fourth quarter at Kinnick Stadium and it’s 6-0 Iowa, and by the way, you’re 6-3, would you take it, would you take it?’ Would you have taken it in July?” Schiano said at the time.

Schiano went on to add: “I would have taken it.”

In hindsight, most Rutgers fans would have taken it, too. Especially, considering what most experts predicted in the preseason. So as the calendar flips back to July, here’s a look back at five preseason predictions the experts got wrong about Rutgers in 2023.

1. A longshot for a bowl game

Rutgers gave ESPN some cyber training last season after the Worldwide Leader’s computer algorithm gave the Scarlet Knights a 19.4% chance of reaching six wins (the minimum for bowl eligibility). The preseason assessment came along with a predicted record of 4-8, which was one of the worst win-loss records published about the Scarlet Knights last summer.

Most experts, including a polling of the Big Ten’s media contingent, predicted Rutgers would finish sixth of seven in the Big Ten East. The Scarlet Knights finished fifth behind No. 1, Michigan, No. 10 Ohio State, No. 13 Penn State and Maryland. Rutgers finished ahead of Michigan State and Indiana.

Most notably, three writers from CBS Sports (from an eight-person panel) picked Rutgers to finish last in its division. Fox’s Michael Cohen added “anything north of four wins would be impressive”.

Overall, ESPN’s FPI algorithm ranked Rutgers 75th overall in the preseason, which was last among Big Ten teams. In its final rankings, Rutgers climbed to 50th overall and seventh in the Big Ten.

Rutgers, of course, got to six wins with a victory at Indiana and ended the season with a winning record after beating Miami in the Pinstripe Bowl.

2. Running on empty (predictions)

A popular preseason prediction came true: Rutgers ran the ball a lot. The guy most thought would be running the ball proved to be incorrect, however.

In fact, almost every publication predicted sophomore Sam Brown would be Rutgers’ starting running back. Instead, junior Kyle Monangai seized an opportunity for playing time and never looked back on his way to recording Rutgers’ first 1,000-yard rushing season since 2012.

Monangai’s standout performance in the Pinstripe Bowl put the finishing touches on his Big Ten rushing title and cemented his status as one of college football’s biggest breakout stars.

This clip from national pundit Phil Steele encapsulates just how unlikely Monangai’s emergence was last July.Steele said Brown would “contend for the 1,000-yard mark”. Brown, who eased his way back from a foot injury, played a limited role behind Monangai, finishing with 63 carries for 216 yards and two touchdowns while appearing in the final five games of the season.

3. Aerial take with deflating results

Rutgers brought in a veteran offensive coordinator with a history of quarterback improvement. Many experts believed that new playcaller and quarterbacks coach, Kirk Ciarrocca, combined with a year of starting experience and a year of full health would result in big improvement for quarterback Gavin Wimsatt.

While Wimsatt eliminated costly turnovers and vastly improved as a running quarterback, he still finished with a detrimental completion percentage as Rutgers finished 129th nationally in passing yards per game. It was the second year in a row Rutgers finished near the bottom of the FBS rankings in passing yards.

“He has a powerful arm and had some really impressive moments and some (freshman) moments, too,” Steele wrote in the preseason. “He was never really 100% and only ran for 63 yards but when healthy is a dangerous runner. … I really like Wimsatt’s potential and look for him to have a vastly improved season.”

Flash forward a year, and Wimsatt is no longer with the program, opting to transfer to Kentucky after losing the starting job to Athan Kaliakmanis in spring ball.

4. A buzzworthy anonymous quote

This expert will forever be hidden in anonymity. In its college football preview, Athlon included anonymous quotes from coaches around the Big Ten speaking without attribution. The list about Rutgers included this shot at Schiano: “Whatever buzz Greg [Schiano] had going by coming back, it’s pretty much gone. He’s turned over a significant amount of staff, and word is out that it’s a highly stressful environment.”

Rutgers lost two assistants this offseason to promotions. Linebackers coach Corey Heatherman took a defensive coordinator position at Minnesota while tight ends coach Andy Aurich left to become Harvard’s head coach.

As for the buzz, there’s something working well for Schiano, who has an experienced team returning in 2024 and a game-changing recruiting class believing in his vision.

5. Defensive line would be Rutgers’ strength

While most predictions correctly predicted Rutgers would be strong defensively, the thought was the defensive line would carry the unit. After all, the unit returned nearly every player and added a contributor — Isaiah Iton from Ole Miss — through the transfer portal.

In fact, the defensive line was Steele’s highest-ranked position group in the Big Ten for Rutgers, adding “this is a much improved group and should feature some breakout players this year.”

While the defensive line held its own, the number of sacks and pressures remained nearly identical to 2022. That was a big disappointing.

Schiano agreed.

“We need to we need to improve on what we did last year,” Schiano said during spring ball about the defensive line. “We didn’t play up to our potential last year and not even close.”