Many communities across southern Ontario saw one of their driest Octobers on record this year, an unusual spell of dry weather that arrived amid one of Toronto’s wettest years in history.
And now, we could see some historic November warmth as mild air will surge into the region for a part of this week. A historically warm November evening is in store for millions.
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A developing Texas low will help drive temperatures to places rarely seen in November across a swath of Ontario.
As the warm front crosses the region Monday evening, temperatures will become highly lopsided, soaring to more than 15 degrees above normal.
Windsor will likely push to 23 or 24 degrees Tuesday afternoon, with 20-degree readings extending to the Georgian Bay and Ottawa areas.
Although these daytime highs are well above normal, we’ve had recent November with similar or even slightly warmer temperature readings.
Where this event becomes unprecedented is the minimum temperature from the pre-dawn hours Tuesday morning to the pre-dawn hours Wednesday morning.
During the 2020 and 2022 warmth periods, the temperature still managed to dip to 12 or 13 degrees through the overnights.
Looking at the model support, we have the confidence to say the warmest night in November history is likely going to happen from Tuesday into Wednesday when the temperature doesn’t fall below 15 degrees, or even 17 degrees, for 24 hours for Niagara and extreme southwestern Ontario.
This time of year, warm air is imported, so it’ll be very windy at times as the Texas low drives north.
Maximum wind gust forecast
Windsor: 70 km/h Hamilton: 80 km/h Toronto: 70 kmh Barrie: 70 km/h Collingwood: 80 km/h
Sustained wind speeds will likely peak across the Huron shores at more than 50 km/h on Tuesday. These wind speeds are strong enough to cause isolated power outages, making driving a little more challenging and creating large waves over the Great Lakes.
As Toronto crawls to the finish line on the wettest year on record, not much rain is forecast for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), with just a couple of millimetres at most.
It’s a different story up in Sault Ste. Marie, however, where over 50 mm is likely, including in Sudbury, as well. It’s possible Timmins and Sudbury record one of their wettest November days on record, where upwards of 40 mm is forecast just on Tuesday alone.
Don’t get too attached to the warmth. We could see a brief shot of chilly weather at the end of next week and into the weekend, but above-seasonal temperatures will dominate through the middle of the month. An active pattern is also expected to return for the second week of November with a storm track into the upper Great Lakes, helping to keep southern Ontario warmer than normal.
Stay with The Weather Network for all the latest forecast updates for Ontario.
