In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the watch list
Godolphin homebred Cinderella’s Dream has won five of her six starts for trainer Charlie Appleby. Her lone defeat came when finishing seventh against tough competition in England’s historic Group 1 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket.
Cinderella’s Dream bounced back from that defeat in impressive fashion Saturday when making her U.S. debut in the 1 3/16-mile Belmont Oaks (G1) at Belmont at the Big A. The early pace wasn’t anything remarkable, and there was very little changing of positions, yet Cinderella’s Dream stormed home from eighth place to beat pacesetter Segesta by three-quarters of a length in the course-record time of 1:53.42.
According to the Equibase GPS chart, Cinderella’s Dream ran her final three furlongs in the excellent time of 33.54 seconds, which included a final quarter-mile in 22.09 seconds. The Saratoga Oaks (G2) is next on the agenda, and Cinderella’s Dream ought to be formidable in that 1 3/16-mile race.
Sweet Azteca has tasted defeat only once in five starts, and that was when she returned from a long layoff to finish third by 2 1/2 lengths in the Las Flores (G3) on New Year’s Day. She’s since rattled off three consecutive victories in a manner suggesting she’s a serious Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint contender.
On Feb. 2, Sweet Azteca smashed a 6 1/2-furlong $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Santa Anita by a dozen lengths. On March 9, she led all the way to defeat Adare Manor in the Beholder Mile (G1), an effort that looks even better now that Adare Manor has returned to win the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) and Santa Margarita (G2).
Sweet Azteca was better than ever when returning from a four-month layoff in the 6 1/2-furlong Great Lady M (G2) at Los Alamitos on Saturday. After pressing hot fractions of 21.65 and 43.96 seconds, Sweet Azteca took over to dominate by five lengths in the track-record time of 1:14.33, earning a 106 Beyer Speed Figure from the Daily Racing Form. Don’t overlook this speedy 4-year-old filly; she’s really, really good right now.
Recent watch list winners
Long-distance dirt racer Next was spectacular when cutting back to 1 3/8 miles, his shortest trip in some time, for the Brooklyn (G2) at Belmont at the Big A. After pressing slow fractions of 24.08, 49.29, 1:14.07 and 1:37.89 in second place, Next blazed his fifth quarter-mile in about 23.82 seconds and his final furlong in 11.89 seconds to trounce Suburban (G2) winner Crupi by 9 1/4 lengths.
Next reached the finish line in 2:13.68, not far off the track record of 2:12.31 set in 1997. His reward was a 109 Beyer Speed Figure, one of the highest numbers earned in a dirt route this year. If anything, Next is better in 2024 than ever before, and I don’t think the Breeders’ Cup Classic is an unrealistic goal if he maintains this level of form.
Pedestrian early fractions of 26.41, 52.38 and 1:17.40 couldn’t stop War Like Goddess from rallying to victory in the 1 3/8-mile Robert G. Dick Memorial (G3) at Delaware Park. Even as the pace accelerated, she launched a big rally from fifth place, as many as 5 1/4 lengths off the lead, to score by one length in 2:16.60. War Like Goddess remains a formidable presence among North America’s long-distance female grass runners.
Worth another try
Legend of Time
Slow fractions of 25.00, 50.24 and 1:14.56 in a five-horse field meant hardly anyone changed positions during the running of the Belmont Derby (G1) at Belmont at the Big A. That was unfortunate for Legend of Time, who settled in third place by two lengths in the early going. As the pace accelerated sharply in the final half-mile, he couldn’t catch the two pacesetters, though he did close ground to finish only 1 1/4 lengths behind while holding third position. Given a better pace setup next time, Legend of Time is eligible to rebound.
She Feels Pretty
Although She Feels Pretty was beaten to third place in the Belmont Oaks, she didn’t run a bad race, tracking the pace in second place for much of the journey before battling on to miss victory by only three-quarters of a length. Given the course-record time, I’ll view She Feels Pretty’s performance in a positive light. It’s possible the distance was a little farther than she wants to run.
Off the watch list
Endlessly
Endlessly trailed the field early in the Belmont Derby, so the slow early/fast late race shape didn’t do him any favors. But with his ninth-place finish in the Kentucky meaning two straight defeats, I’ll drop Endlessly from my watch list.
Lakota Territory
Making his second career start off a 1 1/2-year layoff, Lakota Territory failed to fire in a six-furlong allowance on Sunday at Ellis Park, finishing eighth by 11 3/4 lengths. I was hoping for a better showing.
Mr. Wireless
Like Endlessly, Mr. Wireless has suffered two straight defeats. He fared better when second in the one-mile and 70-yard Michael G. Schaefer Memorial at Horseshoe Indianapolis last Saturday than he did when sixth in the seven-furlong Churchill Downs (G1), but I’ll want to see Mr. Wireless get back to winning form before backing him again.
Upcoming entries
Long Neck Paula
Long Neck Paula impressed when debuting in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby week. Blasting out of the starting gate from post 11, she made the lead shortly after the start and drew off from there to win by 3 1/2 lengths in the sharp time of 51.56 seconds.
I’m a little surprised that Long Neck Paula is 8-1 on the morning line for Thursday’s 10th race at Saratoga, the Schuylerville (G3, post time 6:16 p.m. EDT). Yes, the competition is much deeper, but visually speaking Long Neck Paula looked great on debut, and I think this daughter of Uncle Mo is capable of outrunning her odds for high-percentage trainer Wesley Ward.
Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.
