President-elect Donald Trump has said he will impose sweeping new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China as soon as he takes office.
During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump pledged to use tariffs to boost U.S. businesses—proposing a 60 percent tariff on goods from China and a 10 percent tariff on everything else the United States imports.
On Monday, the president-elect announced his plan to impose a 25 percent tax on all products entering the U.S. from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10 percent tariff on goods from China, as one of his first executive orders when he returns to office on January 20, 2025.
Newsweek has contacted a Trump spokesperson for comment via email.
Tariffs are taxes imposed by a country on imports, usually charged as a percentage of the price a buyer pays a foreign seller.
Trump has insisted that tariffs are paid for by foreign countries, but it is importers—companies in the U.S.—that pay tariffs, and the money goes to the U.S. Treasury. Those companies typically pass their higher costs on to their customers by hiking prices. However, tariffs also hurt the exporting countries by making their products costlier and harder to sell abroad.
Tariffs raise the price of the imported good, thereby “discouraging consumers from purchasing the now higher priced import good and, in the process, steering demand toward domestically produced substitute goods,” Amitrajeet Batabyal, a professor of economics at the Rochester Institute of Technology, told Newsweek.
“A tariff raises revenue for the government and, generally speaking, the objective of a tariff is to protect one or more sectors of the domestic economy,” he added.
Economists have said that tariffs can be harmful to the U.S. economy, and studies have found that Trump’s proposed tariffs would have a negative effect.
Tariffs “are frequently bad for the economy as a whole, although one can find circumstances when a tariff levied by a large nation (meaning a country that has market power and hence can impact world prices) is welfare improving for this large nation,” Batabyal said. “That said, even for a large country, if a trading partner retaliates with its own tariff, then the welfare I alluded to can quickly disappear.”
Erica York, a senior economist and research director with Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy, wrote in an article earlier this month that Trump “may want to impose tariffs to encourage investment and work, but his strategy will backfire.”
“Tariffs will certainly create benefits for protected industries, but those benefits come at the expense of consumers and other industries throughout the economy,” she wrote.
In September, the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) reported that with the tariff proposals Trump campaigned on, the U.S. economy would be almost a percentage lower than otherwise by 2026.
“The damage is magnified if other countries retaliate with higher tariffs on their imports from the United States,” the report said. Other estimates have also found that the proposed tariffs would harm the economy.
A PIIE report released in May said the proposed tariffs “would reduce after-tax incomes by 3.5 percent for those in the bottom half of the income distribution and cost a typical household in the middle of the income distribution about $1,700 in increased taxes each year.”
The report said the tariffs, along with Trump’s proposal to extend tax cuts, “would increase the distortions and burdens created by the rounds of tariffs levied during the first Trump administration (and sustained during the Biden administration), while inflicting massive collateral damage on the U.S. economy.”
Economists have said that Trump’s tariff proposals would send prices surging and make inflation worse.
Because tariffs raise the prices of imported goods, if they “are applied to a large number of goods that consumers typically purchase then such tariffs can give rise to inflationary pressure,” Batabyal said.
Matilde Bombardini, an economist and associate professor of business and public policy at the Haas School of Business at the University of California Berkeley, said tariffs increase prices “when they are imposed, but they do not generate sustained inflation (i.e. price increase) over time after that.”
She told Newsweek: “It is a one-time increase in price levels. This does not mean that this one-time price level increase is not painful for firms and consumers. A one time increase in prices of 10 or 20 percent can be very painful, but it is unlikely to generate persistent inflation.”
In June, a coalition of Nobel Prize-winning economists warned that Trump’s economic proposals would “reignite” inflation, which has come close to the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target since peaking at 9.1 percent in June 2022.
Economists have warned that Trump’s tariffs could dramatically raise prices for American consumers on a wide array of goods.
The PIIE report released in September estimated that the tariffs could make inflation 1.3 percent points higher next year than it otherwise would have been.
Trump said he would impose the tariffs as part of his effort to crack down on illegal immigration and drug trafficking.
In a post on Truth Social, he said that “thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before.”
Trump said the new tariffs would remain in place “until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!”
He added in a separate post that he’d “had many talks with China about the massive amounts of drugs, in particular Fentanyl, being sent into the United States—But to no avail.”
Trump said Chinese officials had told him they would “institute their maximum penalty, that of death, for any drug dealers caught doing this but, unfortunately, they never followed through.”
“Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America,” he continued.
Scott Bessent, Trump’s nominee for treasury secretary, has said imposing tariffs on countries is a means of negotiation.
In a Fox News op-ed published on November 15, Bessent wrote: “Tariffs are also a useful tool for achieving the president’s foreign policy objectives. Whether it is getting allies to spend more on their own defense, opening foreign markets to U.S. exports, securing cooperation on ending illegal immigration and interdicting fentanyl trafficking, or deterring military aggression, tariffs can play a central role.”
Update 11/26/24, 10:46 a.m. ET: This article has been updated to add comment from Amitrajeet Batabyal.
Update 11/27/24, 5:20 a.m. ET: This article has been updated to add comment from Matilde Bombardini.
