The 2024-25 NBA season is here! We’re breaking down the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 teams. Enjoy!
Additions: James Wiseman, Johnny Furphy, Tristan Newton, Enrique Freeman
Subtractions: Jalen Smith, Doug McDermott
Most of the offseason conversation about which Eastern team has the best shot at unseating the Celtics has focused on the Knicks and 76ers, following their respective big swings on the wing. But maybe we should spare a thought for the team that … y’know … actually played Boston in the conference finals?
It’s reasonable to harbor some skepticism about the Pacers repeating a playoff run that saw them beat a Bucks team missing Giannis Antetokounmpo (and, for two games, Damian Lillard) and a Knicks team that was a MASH unit by the end before getting swept by the Celtics. That framing gives Indiana short shrift, though.
Postseason injuries notwithstanding, the Pacers beat the Bucks four times in five regular-season tries, lighting them up to the tune of 122 points per 100 possessions. The Knicks ran out of gas because Indiana made them keep the pedal down, surviving Game 3 and staving off elimination in Game 6 before winning a road Game 7 behind the greatest team-wide shooting performance in NBA playoff history. And while Boston blanked them in the ECF, it’s worth noting that the Pacers led or were tied in the final minute in three of the four games. Even with a defense that couldn’t stop a nosebleed, and with All-NBA maestro Tyrese Haliburton missing the final two games, the Pacers were right there.
That only matters so much in a results-based business; as the prophet Dominic Toretto has told us, one man’s “almost had you” is another’s “never had your car.” But while the pessimist might look at the Pacers and see the 2020-21 Atlanta Hawks, about to backslide into imbalanced stasis, a more optimistic sort might see a team that made the final four despite being far from its final form.
The Pacers return every player who logged at least 100 postseason minutes, six of whom are 25 or under — a pretty rich source of untapped player-development potential. (That doesn’t include their 2022 and 2023 lottery picks: Bennedict Mathurin, shelved in March by a torn labrum, and Jarace Walker, stuck behind Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin on the depth chart.) They had the East’s fourth-best record and third-best net rating after swinging the blockbuster trade for Siakam in mid-January, and played at a 50-win pace after the All-Star break.
They did so with Haliburton clearly at least somewhat hampered by hamstring and back injuries, offering hope for even more electric results with a full-strength version that, in the first half, was arguably the NBA’s best offensive player. Now, they’ll get a full season of the partnership between Haliburton and Siakam, which started to jell late in the regular season before paying major dividends in the playoffs. Indiana outscored its opposition by 79 points in 383 postseason minutes with the two All-Stars sharing the floor, scoring a scorching 125.5 points-per-100.
With the benefit of a full summer and training camp to tinker with not only that pairing, but one of the league’s deepest backcourts — Haliburton, newly extended playoff aces Andrew Nembhard and T.J. McConnell, a healthy Mathurin, the rising Ben Sheppard — head coach Rick Carlisle might have devised an even more potent misery-inducer of an offensive machine. Considering the last iteration that finished top-six in [deep breath] offensive efficiency, assist rate, turnover rate, effective field goal percentage, pace of play, second-chance points, fast-break points and points in the paint [cleansing exhale], that should be an awfully daunting proposition for opposing defenses.
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Perhaps equally daunting: the challenge of finding some new schematic answers to improve a defense that has finished 28th, 26th and 24th in points allowed per possession over the past three seasons, and ranked 22nd in the NBA after the Siakam trade. (The silver lining? The arrow’s pointing up!)
There’s some defensive talent on the roster — physical and feisty wings Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith; veteran rim protector Myles Turner; Walker, who might be just the sort of rangy and versatile 4 Indiana needs — but probably not an “above-average unit” crop. The beauty of having a world-beating offense, though, is that there might not have to be. If Carlisle and Co. can just find a workable enough coverage for the Siakam-Turner pairing — one that also mitigates the damage caused by opponents’ persistent targeting of Haliburton — to even approach league-average, then we might come to view last spring’s run not as a flash in the pan, but as the first spark signaling the start of a bright, hot new era in Indiana basketball.
Haliburton stays healthy the whole way, shepherding the Pacers to not just the best offense in the league, but one of the very best in NBA history. With Turner and Siakam developing more chemistry and the young wings stepping up at the point of attack, Carlisle’s able to construct a scheme that manages to keep limiting 3-pointers without giving up by far the most rim attacks in the league, allowing Indiana to settle somewhere between 15th and 20th in defensive efficiency — a recipe for well over 50 wins, home-court advantage in Round 1, and another deep playoff run.
Carlisle can’t scheme enough around the personnel shortcomings to prevent the Pacers persistently giving up the store, and the defense slips to bottom-five status. As good as that offense can be, even if Haliburton again misses time — they scored at a top-six clip when he was off the floor last season, and their flotilla of complementary balI-handlers should be even better — that’s just too big an ask, especially in April and May. Indiana evades the play-in, but bows out to a full-strength and better-balanced opponent in Round 1, as questions over how you build a championship-caliber defense around Haliburton get louder.
As one of basketball’s most fast-paced and efficient units last season, the Pacers turned heads as a solid hub for fantasy production. Haliburton played in 69 games despite battling injuries and averaged at least 20 points with 10 assists for the second consecutive year. He’s an easy first-rounder in fantasy drafts.
Turner is still an effective shot-blocker to grab in the fourth round, while Siakam has a safe 20-7-4 floor. I prefer Turner over Siakam in category leagues because Siakam’s defensive numbers are trending down, along with his free-throw percentage. In points leagues, go for Siakam.
Two late-round guys I like are Nesmith and Nembhard. Both are efficient from the field, scrappy defensively and come at a reasonable cost. Mathurin is a microwave bucket, but he’s yet to prove to be a viable fantasy asset outside of scoring. — Dan Titus
They just won 47 with Haliburton on a minutes restriction and/or limited for three months, half a season of Siakam, and a rotation full of young guys just starting to get their feet wet. I’d take the over.
