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We are down to the final four in the women’s singles at the Australian Open with Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka on course for what would be a blockbuster final.
Betting sites expect Swiatek and Sabalenka to come through their respective semi-final matches on Thursday with relative ease, pricing up the top two players in the world as heavy favorites.
But their opponents Madison Keys and Paula Badosa aren’t in the semis by chance and both have shown enough in Melbourne so far to suggest they can challenge the top two seeds.
We’ve taken a look at the odds for both semi-finals on established and new betting sites to come up with our betting picks for what should be two exciting encounters.
Sabalenka’s bid for an Aussie Open three-peat nearly came to an end in a thrilling quarter-final against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, who pushed the Belarusian all the way.
Sabalenka hadn’t dropped a set since the 2023 final prior to her clash with Pavlyuchenkova and that match going the distance came out of the blue given how she’d destroyed Mirra Andreeva in the previous round.
Sportsbooks expect Sabalenka to return to form in her 10th Grand Slam semi-final at the expense of Badosa, a player she has beaten five times across their seven meetings.
However, the Spaniard has already stunned one title contender when dispatching Coco Gauff in straight sets in the last round and her ground game should ask questions of Sabalenka.
Badosa has been a consistent performer on tour since the middle of 2024, earning her the WTA’s Comeback Player of the Year award, and she heads into her first Australian Open semi-final having only dropped one set so far.
Perhaps the performance against Pavlyuchenkova was a blip for Sabalenka, but if she isn’t fiting on all cylinders then Badosa can keep this close with a play on the spread, set at 4.5 games, the preference.
2025 Australian Open Pick 1: Paula Badosa +4.5 vs Aryna Sabalenka (-120 Bet365)
Swiatek has only ever made the semi-finals of the Australian Open once before but has looked far more comfortable on Melbourne’s fast courts during this current run.
The Pole has dropped just 14 games and hasn’t played a match longer than 90 minutes so far. She’s also not had her serve broken in her last four outings.
Emma Navarro was no match in the quarter-finals and Swiatek is -700 on some betting apps to breeze past Navarro’s compatriot, Keys.
The American has been taken the distance in three of her last four matches, including in her quarter-final final victory over Elina Svitolina so there’s no question Swiatek should be the fresher competitor.
Plenty has been made of Keys’ ongoing 10-match winning streak, a run that includes a title in Adelaide, but she’s shown some moments of weakness in that time, while Swiatek’s game seems tailor made to counteract the 19th seed power strokes.
Swiatek brushed Keys aside in their two meetings last year, albeit both took place on clay, dropping just four games each times and there has never been a match between this pair that’s gone to a third set.
Swiatek looks untouchable at the moment and Keys may struggle to live with the Pole.
2025 Australian Open Pick 2: Iga Swiatek to win & under 19.5 games (+110 Bet365)
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