The 2024-25 NBA season is here! We’re breaking down the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 teams. Enjoy!
Additions: Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, Keita Bates-Diop (unofficially!), Rob Dillingham, Terrence Shannon Jr., Joe Ingles, PJ Dozier
Subtractions: Karl-Anthony Towns, Kyle Anderson, Jordan McLaughlin, Monte Morris, Wendell Moore Jr., TJ Warren
Behind a resurgent Rudy Gobert and a smothering Jaden McDaniels, the Timberwolves boasted a historically great defense last season. Chris Finch’s club allowed 2.2 fewer points per 100 possessions than second-place Boston; according to NBA.com’s John Schuhmann, that was the third-largest gap between Nos. 1 and 2 since 1996.
That defense produced Minnesota’s first playoff series victories in 20 years. But the Wolves ran aground against the Mavericks, who held Anthony Edwards to 40% shooting in the paint, forced him to pass on 46% of his drives and dared his teammates to beat them. They couldn’t. Minnesota scored just 112.1 points-per-100 against Dallas, a mark which would’ve finished 24th in offensive efficiency during the regular season.
“The West is so brutal,” Timberwolves president Tim Connelly recently told Darren Wolfson of KSTP-TV. “You know, it’s a shot here, a shot there, who’s healthy — so much is matchups and health. But we just want to continue to be at the big table.”
Which makes the blockbuster trade of Towns, Minnesota’s second-leading scorer last season, all the more fascinating. Does moving KAT for Randle and DiVincenzo help Minnesota stay “at the big table” this season?
The affirmative case likely stems from two beliefs. First: that reigning Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid can replace more of KAT’s production than you might think, at a fraction of the cost. (At least, until he gets the contract extension for which he’ll be eligible after the season, which the Wolves will almost assuredly offer him, and which will still come in significantly below what Towns will earn on his supermax.)
And second: that what the Wolves needed most to grease the wheels of their offense was more shot creation — someone besides Edwards to break down the defense and generate a good look.
That’s why Connelly traded a pair of potentially juicy future picks to jump up and draft Kentucky’s Rob Dillingham. But 165-pound 19-year-olds rarely feature for playoff teams. So: enter Randle, a superior facilitator to Towns over the past five seasons, posting a higher assist percentage and lower turnover rate.
While he’ll still obstinately spin-move into traffic from time to time, Randle has proven more adept at breaking defenders down off the dribble, drawing help and setting up teammates. Since 2020, only four players have notched the assist on more corner 3-pointers than Randle: Luka Dončić, Trae Young, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokić.
With those shoulder-checking drives and deft deliveries, though, come plenty of possessions concluded with a clang. While Towns made fewer than 36% of his 3-pointers only once in nine years in Minnesota, Randle has made more than 36% once in his nine pro seasons. Even if Mike Conley Jr. replicates his career-best 44.2% 3-point accuracy and DiVincenzo’s able to maintain the monster leap he made as a long-range marksman last season, Finch might have trouble generating enough half-court spacing in Gobert/Randle/McDaniels lineups to give Edwards room to cook.
That’s the last thing Minnesota needs: More growth from Ant, who made real strides as a playmaker last season en route to his first All-NBA selection. He is probably the team’s most direct path to the top-10ish offense that would help secure that seat “at the big table.”
The Wolves very well could — if Edwards shows that growth, if Finch can make Gobert and Randle mesh more quickly than Rudy and KAT did, if Conley and DiVincenzo can keep everyone on schedule, if McDaniels takes a big step, and if everyone can cough the ball up less (two straight bottom-10 finishes in turnover rate) while pushing it more (28th in transition frequency). That sounds like a lot of “ifs,” though, right?
So here’s one more: If enough of those things don’t go the Wolves’ way, they could be right back on the outside looking in, wondering if they’ve already missed their best chance, having jettisoned a cornerstone in service of avoiding the second apron and saving luxury tax dollars. Sounds like an uncomfortable place to sit, no matter which table you’re at.
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The defense sustains. Edwards and Reid post another season of across-the-board career-highs. Great play from the newcomers, a little jolt from Dillingham and the creativity of Finch and his coaching staff combine to push Minnesota into the top 10 on offense, giving the Wolves the fundamentals of another final-four finish — this time, with better depth and more seasoning.
Minnesota returns to its 2022-23 struggle to find synergy. Randle and Gobert get in each other’s way, and both of them get in Ant’s, resulting in a return to clogged-toilet half-court sets and plenty of griping from Minnesota’s new marquee idol. Which, in turn, produces grousing from Gobert — big dogs who don’t get fed won’t guard the yard, after all — and a slight but notable defensive decline. Below-average offense and not-quite-elite defense isn’t a recipe for success; in fact, in one of the deepest Wests we’ve ever seen, it sees the Wolves slip back into the play-in mix.
Are we ready for Anthony Edwards’ true breakout season? I’ve ranked him late-first in category leagues because this is the year he takes another leap in scoring, improved efficiency and stock accumulation. For all the disrespect Rudy Gobert receives, he’s a double-double machine who should swat a couple of shots a game. Gobert’s mid-fourth ADP is fair, but I’d prefer to get him toward the end of the fourth round.
Wolves head coach Chris Finch confirmed that Julius Randle is starting at PF, so expect Naz Reid to remain in a similar role as last year. Reid’s coming off a career year where he took home Sixth Man of the Year honors and his ADP is understated at 100. Mike Conley is another player whose ADP is low. At 36, he’s still an effective passer who can help fantasy managers in steals and 3s beyond the 10th round. — Dan Titus
I’ll go under. While Minnesota won 56 last season with Towns missing a significant chunk with a torn meniscus, Edwards, Gobert, Conley, McDaniels, Reid and key reserve Nickeil Alexander-Walker missed just 26 games combined. With how strong the rest of the West appears to be this season, the injury luck breaking against Minnesota just a bit more — combined with a fits-and-starts transition to life after KAT — might be enough to shift a handful of last year’s W’s onto the other side of the ledger.
