A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Donald Trump’s surprisingly comprehensive victory in the U.S. Presidential election has electrified the U.S. dollar – possibly to his own chagrin – and the U.S. currency is eyeing its biggest one-day gain in two years.
Even before official results were in, Trump’s virtually assured win across key swing states and in the popular vote nationwide looks far more resounding than the tight race predicted by opinion polls and betting markets only yesterday. His Republican party also took the Senate as expected, but a clean sweep of Congress was still in the mix as the House remains too close to call and may return to Democrats.
Both stock futures and Treasury yields jumped immediately on unfolding result, the seeming clarity of which was a relief to some who feared days or even weeks of political and legal wrangling over contested votes.
Small cap stocks captured by the Russell 2000 have so far proven the biggest equity index winners – soaring almost 6% ahead of Wednesday’s bell.
S&P500 and tech-led Nasdaq futures were both up more almost 2% and, significantly, the clear result saw the the VIX ‘fear index’ of equity volatility plunged to its lowest in more than month – back below historical averages.
Wary of another fiscal stimulus via Trump’s promised tax cuts on top of an already 6%-of-GDP budget deficit, Treasury were whacked – with the benchmark 10-year yield hitting its highest since July just shy of 4.5%.
However, the still-live chance of Democrat-dominated House and resulting gridlock plus the likelihood on Thursday of a second Federal Reserve interest rate cut of the year, limited Treasury losses for now.
The fate of the House may now dictate the extent of further bond market losses from here – with the lingering chance ‘Red sweep’ underscoring tax cut speculation.
Ebbing U.S. crude prices, in part due to Trump’s enthusiasm for drilling more oil but also on rising domestic inventories and the higher dollar, also cosseted bruised bonds to some degree.
Other so-called Trump trades reacted as expected, with Bitcoin gaining as much as 8% to new record highs as the results emerged and digital currency punters cheered a likely soft touch on crypto market regulation from the next president.
Shares in Trump Media & Technology were up more than 50%. And Tesla stock jumped 12%, with its Trump-backing billionaire boss Elon Musk recently promised a role leading a government efficiency commission by the likely new president.
But the dollar’s surge worldwide stood out – its index gains of almost 1.5% at one point captured gains against the euro and Japan’s yen to four-month highs while it hit 2-year highs on Mexico’s peso and notched its best levels on China’s yuan since early August.
Regardless of the House outcome, Trump’s independent control of trade policy and pledge to ratchet up tariffs against China and the rest of the globe is seen as a dollar positive by crimping the trade deficit and lifting domestic consumer prices.
And Tuesday data showed that overseas trade gap increased 19% in September to $84.4 billion, the highest level since April 2022, as imports jumped 3% to a record $352.3 billion.
But with Trump inheriting a robust economy, stocks marching higher and Treasury yields climbing on his loose fiscal steer, dollar gains were bolstered – even if Trump and his advisers typically advocate a softer exchange rate to flatter trade competitiveness.
Shorter-term, the latest U.S. service sector surveys for last month showed brisk pre-election activity even with contained price readings and S&P500 firms’ profit growth is well ahead of forecast for the third quarter.
And while futures markets remain confident of a quarter point Fed rate cut on Thursday, pricing now shows just 90 basis points of cuts over the year after that. That would put an implied ‘terminal rate’ for the Fed cycle as high as 3.75% – almost a full percentage point above what Fed policymakers themselves had indicated when they first cut rates in September.
Aside from currencies, overseas stock markets were mostly positive as the U.S. election results unfolded.
Mainland Chinese and Hong Kong stocks, awaiting key Chinese government policy indications this week too, were the main under-performers and lost 0.5% and 2.6% respectively on trade tariff concerns. South Korea’s Kospi index also lost 0.5%.
But aided by a weaker yen, Japan’s Nikkei surged 2.6% and both euro stocks and Britain’s gained more than 1% each.
Perhaps most notable was a slide in euro zone government bond yields in stark contrast to the spike in U.S. Treasury equivalents – in part as the darker world trade outlook and differing fiscal projections either side of the Atlantic widened economic gaps and yield spreads across the ocean.
A wobbling German coalition government is also adding to trepidation in the euro zone amid some speculation about a snap election there.
Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Wednesday:
* Results of U.S. Presidential and Congressional Elections
* U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee starts two-day policy meeting
* US Treasury auctions $25 billion of 30-year bonds
* US corporate earnings: Qualcomm, Gilead, Ameren, Mckesson, Albemarle, Sempra, Corteva, Atmos, CVS, Howmet, STERIS, ANSYS, Take Two, Host Hotels, Match, Williams, PTC, APA, Iron Mountain, Marketaxess, Cencora, Trimble, American Electric Power, Pinnacle West, Charles River, Johnson Controls etc
* European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos speak
