Welcome to the weekly edition of QB Room. Let’s continue our season preview with the AFC’s pressing quarterback questions.
For better or worse, wideouts Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are gone. While there’s plenty of room to debate how that may cut down on distractions, and improve offensive chemistry and Allen’s mindset, there’s definitely lost talent and experience to weigh as well. In the wake of those changes, Allen has to lift a far less proven cast of wide receivers. That’s a lot of pressure, which seems to invite more of the “hero ball” playmaking that has gotten Allen into hot water in the past — not to mention absorbing a lot of physical punishment.
For this to work in a way that doesn’t require Allen to put on cape every single game, running back James Cook must continue on his upward trajectory that saw him take a sizable career jump last season. It’s also going to necessitate that pass-catching tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox become high-level staples of the scheme. Arguably the biggest contribution is going to have to come from rookie first-round pick Keon Coleman, who could feasibly see as many targets as top-10 picks Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers. If Coleman can step into the No. 1 wideout role, which is there for the taking, it would be instrumental for the Bills’ Super Bowl hopes.
Even with Tagovailoa finally having played a full season in 2023, his health continues to be the top priority of the franchise in 2024 and beyond. The Dolphins’ commitment to a monster contract extension for Tagovailoa this offseason mandates it. That places more pressure on Miami’s offensive line because there’s no longer a door to pivot elsewhere if he gets hurt or struggles to continue an upward trajectory.
Tagovailoa was asked about the reliability of the interior of his line in August and related his confidence through the lens of being able to get the football out fast. While that’s a reasonable thought, it’s not the same thing as knowing protection will hold up. And the reality is Miami already has reason for anxiety about the line, particularly the middle of the unit, which struggled late last season. The hope was that the interior would be anchored by a change at center, replacing Connor Williams with Aaron Brewer. But Brewer has missed a large chunk of the preseason with a hand injury, creating questions about what the unit’s chemistry will look like when the season kicks off, beginning Sunday against Jacksonville. After seeing Tagovailoa’s play hit some inconsistent patches late last season, largely because of interior protection issues, the Dolphins can’t be thrilled this is a question they’re still dealing with.
The rookie certainly made it interesting late in training camp when it came to the Patriots’ quarterback decision. But the conspiracy theorist in me wonders if the shaky surrounding cast — see: offensive line and wideouts — always made it a foregone conclusion that the franchise would start the season with Jacoby Brissett no matter what. Certainly, leaking out the supposed early camp perception that Maye was behind developmentally helped make it a more reasonable decision when Brissett was chosen. Particularly after Maye performed well enough late in camp for head coach Jerod Mayo to declared Maye had “outplayed” Brissett in the final weeks.
All of that said, three factors haven’t changed. The offensive line is still shaky at best; the young wideouts still have a long way to go (aside from Ja’Lynn Polk, who looks ready to contribute immediately); and the Patriots’ opening schedule is still brutal.
So when will Maye get an opportunity? It all depends how these things come together in September and at least the first couple weeks of October. The left side of the line has to show it’s healthy and the entire unit has to show it is absorbing the blocking schemes of new offensive line coach Scott Peters. And another one or two of the wideouts has to step up — rookie Javon Baker in particular needs to show more maturity and better work habits. And finally, Maye has to continue to impress on the scout team and in support of Brissett until the schedule and record are suggestive that it’s the right time for a move. Check in around mid-October and you should know plenty.
I’ll say this for the 2023 Jets: They fought for their season after losing Rodgers only four plays into the opener. And they learned some things in the process, dialing into ways that they could make their roster — specifically the surrounding offensive cast — better than what Rodgers would have been playing with last season. If you ask the team’s leadership, they’ll tell you this next iteration with Rodgers will have a much better depth chart, especially from a depth standpoint along the offensive line and some fresh legs among the skill position players.
The talent and experience at right and left tackle is better with Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, even if it comes with age. There’s also a plan to get rookie first-round draft pick Olu Fashanu up and running with experience at both guard and tackle.
It was a relief to have moved on from Mekhi Becton, whose injuries and weight maintenance became the Philadelphia Eagles’ problems. The running backs also got younger and deeper, and the wideouts more talented with the addition of Mike Williams (when healthy) and Malachi Corley (when ready). Taken from a wider vantage, that’s a whole lot of change from the team Rodgers ran out with a year ago. And the Jets think it will show immediately.
The first inclination might be to focus Jackson’s 2024 season through his skill position players, which include a fairly shallow group of wideouts, two impact tight ends and the blockbuster addition of running back Derrick Henry. But the low-key biggest development for Jackson might be the amount of weight he shed, getting down to 200 pounds at one point in the offseason — which is 15 pounds lighter than 2023 and a whopping 30 pounds below his 2022 weight. Jackson and the coaching staff believe it has resulted in a faster and quicker player.
What that means for the Ravens’ offense isn’t really clear yet. Henry was brought in to anchor the running game, but Jackson’s rationale for losing the weight was tied in (at least partially) to his feeling that he wasn’t as elusive as a runner. The reality is that Jackson’s most elite trait continues to be his ability to create offense through his legs — either buying time off schedule or simply running the football himself. Naturally, losing weight can help Jackson play at a fast clip, but it also takes away some of his armor when he absorbs hits carrying the ball. There’s going to have to be some kind of balance that takes advantage of Jackson’s speed, but also embraces it as a luxury rather than a necessity.
Two of Burrow’s four years in the NFL have been cut short by season-ending injuries — first with his devastating knee injury as a rookie and then last year with a wrist issue that required surgery. Add in last year’s calf strain that cost Burrow most of the preseason and it’s fair to be concerned about his ability to stay on the field. Cincinnati’s offensive line has been part of the problem, with a unit that was below average in pass protection in 2023. The Bengals sunk some assets into the line to respond, including the signing of starting right tackle Trent Brown and the drafting of first-round offensive tackle Amarius Mims.
To a certain degree, Burrow’s physical frame and playing style creates risks with his health. He will hold the ball at times to generate splash opportunities with his big-play wideouts. (One of whom, Ja’Marr Chase, still isn’t practicing with the team.) Some of those invite punishment, as do some of the moments when he runs with the ball or goes off schedule. With his 215-pound frame, that can take a toll. Time will tell if he adjusts some of the things he does to try and protect himself. But one thing is clear: The Bengals can’t afford to have him miss any more large portions of seasons.
One way or another, this should be the last year we ask this question. Watson turns 29 this month and we haven’t seen him live up to his talent since 2020. Up to now, we’ve rationalized it every possible way that has avoided suggesting that Watson has lost his way as a quarterback and is nothing more than a middle-of-the-road journeyman. At some point, we have to accept that the numbers and injuries — not to mention some of the things we saw activated by the insertion of Joe Flacco in 2023 — are evidence that the Pro Bowl-caliber Watson is more pipe dream than reality.
One thing is for sure, with his latest contract restructure, Watson isn’t going anywhere. The Browns continue to kick portions of his salary load down the road, now putting themselves on the hook for dead cap charges of $172 million in 2025 and $99 million in 2026 if Watson is cut prior to either of those seasons. In the event he never turns a corner through the 2026 season, I suspect they’ll keep restructuring as they go before finally taking a sizable cap hit via void years all accelerating in 2027. At that point, it would be the end of Watson’s tenure in Cleveland and a pivot into a cheapish rookie QB deal or simply a total teardown and rebuild. I doubt anyone in the regime survives if that’s how this all turns out.
Wilson has been named starter and it feels quite a bit like the coaching staff never really intended to go any other way — even if others in the organization seem enamored with the ceiling and age combination of Justin Fields. I think a big part of this came down to some of the ball security fears with Fields (head coach Mike Tomlin isn’t going to stomach turnovers) and the fact that he continues to be just a half-beat behind on some throws and decisions. That doesn’t mean Fields is locked down for good.
For Wilson to keep the job, he needs to win. If that happens, he’ll stay in place and Fields’ role will be a niche existence at most. If the team is up and down? Then he can’t be a part of the problem, which means no turnovers and efficient, effective play. If the Steelers struggle and playmaking is an issue — which it has been for Wilson for several years — I believe Pittsburgh will give Fields a look, especially after the Steelers didn’t land Brandon Aiyuk, who could have added a more significant passing dimension to the team. Instead, the Steelers will be more anchored in a run game that, frankly, would be far tougher to defend if Fields was part of it.
The Texans have certainly stacked the deck talent-wise when it comes to positioning themselves offensively to compete with Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite returning wideout Tank Dell from injury, re-signing tight end Dalton Schultz and retaining offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, the Texans went out and snatched veteran talents in receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon. That’s an aggressive move to seize on the momentum of 2023 and maximize Slowik while he’s still on the staff.
The added pieces were certainly intentional, with Mixon being a hard runner who has been relatively durable, missing only four regular-season games in the past three seasons. Paired with Dameon Pierce, the tandem can give the Texans a physical set of runners that will suck some defenders in. Conversely, Diggs gives the Texans an experienced, talented — but also mercurial — player who thrives against man coverage, which was a somewhat less efficient area for Stroud last season. Keeping Diggs’ attitude on the rails will be a challenge, but he’s an extremely competitive player familiar with facing the Chiefs. The Texans pursued him for a reason. And Kansas City was on their minds.
This is going to be on everyone’s minds until Richardson can simply take hits and stay in games. It’s not quite the same type of anxiety as Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion issues, but some of the breath-holding will be similar when Richardson exposes himself on runs. What’s clear is that Richardson isn’t going to take it upon himself to change his style. He said in May that his season-ending shoulder injury in 2023 was an unavoidable freak occurrence.
What will be interesting is to see if head coach Shane Steichen pulls back on Richardson and schemes fewer dedicated runs or RPO opportunities. But given the special nature of the quarterback’s skills, a drastic change seems unlikely. Instead, it’s going to fall on Richardson to make adjustments running, such as trading off yards at the end of plays and getting down or out of bounds rather than leaning into punishment. His running style is more Cam Newton than Lamar Jackson, so making that change early in his career should be easy to understand. Especially if Richardson can understand the toll that early career punishment took on Newton later in his career.
Three years into his career, Lawrence still hasn’t cracked the league’s elite tier of quarterbacks. Not statistically, not in wins and losses, and certainly not in season-to-season consistency. Some of that can be pinned to his Urban Meyer-poisoned rookie season and injured third season, while there have also been some issues locking in a consistent cast of wideouts, too. That might be why the Jaguars showcased their confidence in Lawrence this offseason by signing him to a massive contract extension, then gave him some new receiving pieces in Gabe Davis and first-round draft pick Brian Thomas Jr.
The challenge for Jacksonville now is going to be attacked a few different ways. Head coach Doug Pederson is fiddling with putting Lawrence under center more consistently, which can help make the defense’s job more difficult when diagnosing offensive looks. It could also help an offensive line that had issues at various points last season, including short yardage looks and rushing productivity. How that will help Lawrence gain ball security consistency remains to be seen. His 60 turnovers in three years leads all NFL quarterbacks in that span.
For whatever reason, Levis continues to get banged by doubters as a budding second-year starter, despite dealing with a far worse offensive line last season than the Indianapolis Colts’ Anthony Richardson … and despite Levis being far more durable and showing growth in his starts. While Richardson gets celebrated as a dark horse MVP, Levis gets lukewarm hype at best. If there was ever a case of NFL Draft residue tainting expectations between two players, it’s the comparison between Richardson and Levis.
The Titans surely aren’t being shy about finding out what Levis is capable of, though. The front office loaded the offense in the offseason, adding Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to join DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks, while also recreating the versatility of the backfield by pairing Tony Pollard with Tyjae Spears. That’s a lot of talent for new head coach Brian Callahan to shape and scheme around Levis. It’s also added to an anchor left tackle in first-round draft pick JC Latham and offensive line assistant extraordinaire Bill Callahan. If Levis is the guy, there’s a young core of players and offensive-minded head coach in place to grow with him.
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What is a realistic expectation for rookie Bo Nix?
Yes, Nix won the starting job. No, it didn’t really feel like much of a competition, no matter how many times head coach Sean Payton talked up Jarrett Stidham as Nix’s chief competitor. Forget that competition. The true guiding expectations for Nix are going be dialed in the first month of the season, when he has to face four defenses that could all be pretty good this season: The Seattle Seahawks (on the road), Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (on the road) and New York Jets (on the road). That’s a daunting stretch for a rookie quarterback, regardless of having played 61 college games. If Nix makes it through that first gauntlet reasonably well, then maybe some of the latest Rookie of Year momentum will be justified.
One thing I’d note in all this: I think Payton is still pissed about the early Las Vegas oddsmakers over/under win total of 5.5 games. He’s not running this team as a rebuild. He intends to compete and win.
Early on, a huge strength of the offense is going to be the running game with a slimmed down Javonte Williams, especially with the recast set of wideouts still picking up the offense and gaining chemistry. Expect a conservative approach with Nix. If Payton goes the other way and Nix is running a high-volume passing attack, then it suggests a whole other level of early confidence from the head coach that we’d have to see to believe.
Has enough been done to take pressure off Patrick Mahomes as the offensive engine?
There’s little doubt that the Chiefs have tried to propel Mahomes beyond last season’s uneven offensive season, which put an inordinate amount of pressure on both he and tight end Travis Kelce to continually produce dynamic results, even when defenses threw everything at stopping the tandem. Wideout Rashee Rice looked like he was ready to step into a starring role, but his offseason issues raise questions which is likely why Kansas City didn’t wait around to find additional help.
Indeed, the Chiefs basically threw the kitchen sink at the skill position additions, bringing aboard wideouts Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy and JuJu Smith-Schuster and grabbing an underrated addition in veteran backup running back Samaje Perine. It remains to be seen what happens with Rice’s legal issues and potential suspension, as well as Brown’s health. But this is a far better and deeper-skilled group than Mahomes was working with when the Chiefs won the Lombardi last season. He has the help to push for a history-making third straight Super Bowl win.
Is the 2025 starting quarterback on the roster?
The Raiders have clearly leaked otherwise, but I still firmly believe they were mulling some kind of angle to select Michael Penix Jr. somewhere in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Maybe it was lower than their 13th overall pick, but I believe thought was put into it. Gardner Minshew II’s two-year bridge quarterback deal and the team benching Aidan O’Connell for Minshew only make me more sure of it (aside from everything else I heard leading to the draft).
So what does that mean for 2025? It means the future starter still isn’t here. Having Minshew start only enhances his value and viability in 2025 as a continued bridge if he’s needed, while also keeping every option on the table in free agency (Dak Prescott) or a potential first-round quarterback selection next April. The only wild card here is the possibility of Minshew pulling a rabbit out of a hat and winning enough games to push for the playoffs. That could give ownership some pause about a change, especially if the locker room and staff responds to him. O’Connell still has the physical tools to potentially develop into a fringe starter, but he isn’t the chosen player of the new regime. Add it up and all signs point to this being a team in the long-term QB market again in a few months.
What will Jim Harbaugh’s offensive scheme look like around Justin Herbert?
I’m not sure why anyone would disbelieve what Harbaugh says at this stage of his career, so I have to assume he’s already told us what his offensive scheme is going to push: An effective running game; a play-action game that requires Herbert to operate from under center more; a balanced scheme that puts a premium on complementary play-calling, and a whole lot of players who can block (including the wideouts and tight ends). Add it all up and I just don’t see Herbert being a high-volume passer or the Chargers being a pinball machine on the scoreboard unless the defense and running game are fairly dominant. Which fits if you look back at Harbaugh’s history as a head coach.
All of this being said, I can’t discount that Harbaugh will lean into players he trusts. And Herbert is the most talented quarterback he’s ever coached not named Andrew Luck. His effusive praise of Herbert? I believe it. But Herbert is going to have to earn an offense that gets shaped around a passing game, and that’s not going to be easy with the pieces he has right now. Too many talented pieces went out the door to know what Herbert is going to look like with a litany of young and unproven players. We still don’t know what Quentin Johnston can be or if Ladd McConkey will be durable enough to be a dependable No. 1 or No. 2. As for the running backs, I doubt the 2025 starter is on the team right now. Take all of that for what it’s worth when considering how much work is still ahead for this scheme.
