Not too long ago, the NFL MVP odds indicated Josh Allen was running away with the award.
Even though Lamar Jackson has a great argument for the award and helped himself yet again on Wednesday, Allen still has the lead in the odds at BetMGM. But it is getting tighter between the two.
Jackson had another strong outing in a 31-2 win over the Houston Texans, throwing for two touchdowns and rushing for another. With that game coming on Christmas, with a big Netflix audience tuning in, there was a lot of talk of Jackson’s MVP credentials. And the odds did shift.
Allen is still a significant favorite at -250 odds (bet $250 to win $100). Jackson is +160. That indicates it’s still Allen’s award to lose, especially considering he has a chance to impress voters this week when the Buffalo Bills play the New York Jets on Sunday.
But Allen’s lead is a lot less than it was a few days ago.
As of Tuesday, Allen was a -500 favorite to win MVP. A week before, he was -1000, which put his implied odds of winning at more than 90%.
So while -250 is still a pretty big favorite, the race is a lot closer than it has been through most of December.
While betting odds can be instructive, it’s not necessarily predictive. Odds technically aren’t meant to be predictive. One job of oddsmakers is to get a balanced amount of bets, so there isn’t a big exposure on any team, player or any other bet in a market. Even if oddsmakers believed Allen and Jackson were 50/50 at this point, they wouldn’t make the odds for each player even if they anticipated bettors would flood them with Allen bets. They are trying to read the market, not necessarily what voters will do.
But oddsmakers aren’t setting a line without trying to analyze what voters will do. It’s probably fair to assume that Allen’s lead isn’t insurmountable as the season nears its end.
Jackson leads Allen in many statistical categories. He has the edge in passing yards and touchdowns, passer rating and rushing yards. His passer rating of 121.6 is close to Aaron Rodgers’ all-time single-season record of 122.5, set in 2011. Allen’s Bills have played one fewer game though.
One of the big strides Jackson has made is team related. The Ravens went from trailing the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North to leading the division within the past week. Voters place a heavy emphasis on team success — if Allen or Jackson win MVP, it will break a streak of seven straight MVPs from a No. 1 seed — and it’s fair to assume that Allen would have gotten some votes over Jackson if the Bills won their division and the Ravens didn’t. Assuming Baltimore clinches the AFC North next week (they do with a win or a Steelers loss) then that edge is gone for Allen.
There’s also the topic of voter fatigue. It happens, across all sports. In a close race, will voters pick Jackson to win his third MVP before Allen gets his first?
Even though the odds are in Allen’s favor, it seems like a very close race late in the season. And either candidate would be deserving of the award.
