For a few seasons, home-field advantage hasn’t been much of an advantage at all in the NFL.
That trend is continuing this season. Road teams are covering 56.7% of the time according to Covers.com. Road teams are a respectable 31-32 straight up (one game was a neutral-site game in Brazil). Road teams getting points have been even better; away underdogs are 25-18-1 against the spread. Home field can’t be completely discounted, but it matters way less than it did 10 or maybe even five years ago.
Here’s a look at Week 5 of the NFL season from a betting standpoint, with all odds from BetMGM:
The Atlanta Falcons are very, very close to being 0-4. In one win, the game would have been over if Eagles running back Saquon Barkley caught a third-down pass he secures almost all of the time. The Falcons had a frenetic final drive to win. Last week, they needed a muffed punt recovered for a touchdown, a pick-6 from linebacker Troy Andersen and a career-long 58-yard field goal at the end from Younghoe Koo to beat the Saints at home. Atlanta hasn’t been very good this season.
Despite that, they are favored by 1.5 points against the 3-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Other than one game against an underrated Broncos defense, Tampa Bay has been off to a good start this season. It seems like the worse team is favored on Thursday night.
If you like the New York Jets in their early morning Sunday game against the Minnesota Vikings, keep this one thing in mind: When the Jets have the ball, the coaching matchup is Nathaniel Hackett vs. Brian Flores.
Flores is the hottest defensive coordinator in the NFL right now, and Hackett has his own players complaining about a lack of creativity. Despite the Jets coming off a bad loss to the Broncos and the Vikings winning four in a row to start the season, the spread is just -2.5 with the Vikings favored. Some of that is the odd venue of London, which can make those games unpredictable. It also might be some skepticism that the Vikings are legit, or a lack of overreaction to that Broncos game for the Jets.
Henry’s rushing total seems like a trap, at just 81.5. He has 350 yards the last two weeks. It feels square to take the over but it’s hard to figure out how the Bengals slow him down. Cincinnati has by far the worst defensive success rate against the run according to TruMedia. The Bengals have a 48.6% success rate against the run, and no other team in the NFL is under 52%. It also seems like the Ravens have figured out some early-season offensive line issues, and that Henry can handle as many carries as they can give him.
The Los Angeles Rams have issues. Their offensive line is still not right, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are out and the defense is bad. And yet, the Green Bay Packers are just a 3-point favorite at the Rams. The Packers got hot in the fourth quarter of last week’s loss to the Vikings, and presumably Jordan Love can carry that over. There’s a lot of respect for Sean McVay and the 1-3 Rams in that line.
OK, it’s not a big underdog. The Houston Texans are just 1-point underdogs. But it’s still surprising to see them getting even a point at home. They’re facing the Buffalo Bills, who looked great for the first three weeks before getting blown out by the Ravens last week. It’s reasonable to take the Bills because they’re a very good team, but this is the rare chance to take the Texans as a home underdog.
If the Dallas Cowboys are going to be a top 10 team this season, now is a good time to start. The Cowboys are a very unimpressive 2-2 this season, but they do have two road wins. Maybe that’s a good sign as they travel to face the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are a surprising 3-1 this season, and they’re favored by 2.5 points for Sunday night’s matchup.
Dallas is 2-2 and their two games after Pittsburgh are against the Lions and 49ers. If the Cowboys lose here, their season could slide in a hurry.
The Chiefs are living off of close wins. They’ve won seven in a row by seven points or less, a feat matched in NFL history by the 1996 Jaguars, 2020 Chiefs and that’s it (via AP’s Josh Dubow). That’s fine, they all count and the Chiefs have an unique edge in one-score games due to superior quarterback play and coaching. But it’s hard for bettors that have to lay big numbers on them.
The Chiefs are 5.5-point favorites against the New Orleans Saints on Monday night. It’s hard to set the line lower than that, because the Chiefs are a popular team among casual bettors and a lower spread would lead to a lot of Kansas City bets. But the Saints haven’t looked bad this season and the Chiefs will have to adjust to life without Rashee Rice. Also worth keeping in mind: Even though Kansas City hasn’t blown anyone out this season, they are still 3-1 against the spread.
