Everyone who follows the NFL knows by now that there are just two undefeated teams left, the Kansas City Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings.
Bettors don’t care as much about that. To them, there’s just one team that is still perfect.
Minnesota is the only team to cover the spread in every one of its games this season. The Chiefs are a very good 3-1-1 against the spread, via Action Network’s standings.
Also, there are no winless teams in the actual standings or against the spread. Every team has a win this season and every team has covered the spread at least once.
Here’s a look at Week 6 of the NFL season from a betting standpoint, with all odds from BetMGM:
The San Francisco 49ers are 5-0 against the Seattle Seahawks the past two seasons, counting playoffs, and none of the games have been all that close. Here are the winning margins from the five games: 20, 8, 18, 18, 12. In Seattle, in San Francisco, it hasn’t mattered. The 49ers have dominated.
Perhaps some will see the 49ers with a 2-3 record and believe they’re vulnerable, but two of the losses have been fluky (the Rams and Cardinals had wild fourth quarter comebacks) and the other loss was on the road to the undefeated Vikings. Seattle lost to the Giants last week, their 3-0 start looks like it was propped up by an easy schedule. And now it gets to face an angry 49ers team that doesn’t want to fall to 2-3. The 49ers are 3.5-point favorites.
The Chicago Bears have won two in a row. The Jacksonville Jaguars finally got their first win of the season last week.
Which team will keep the momentum going? Chicago is a 2-point favorite. The Jaguars’ win over the Colts last week wasn’t that impressive, considering they gave up 34 points to a Joe Flacco offense and it came down to the final seconds. But they are quite familiar with London, making it their second home. Knowing how to handle an unusual travel week helps. We’ll see if that can overcome some of their other deficiencies.
Derek Carr got injured on Monday night and will be replaced by rookie fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler. That’s not great news for the New Orleans Saints, who have lost three straight. Neither is the rest discrepancy: They played on Monday night, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had extra rest after playing last Thursday night. And despite all of that, the Buccaneers are just 3.5-point favorites.
Teams often rally around the backup quarterback in his first game, and the Saints are at home against a Buccaneers team that had its routine disrupted by Hurricane Milton. And Rattler was an interesting late-round pick who played well in the preseason. Still, it’s a lot to ask Rattler to keep the Saints afloat in his first NFL snaps.
The Houston Texans will have to adjust to life without Nico Collins, who went on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. It’s time for Dell to emerge in the offense.
Houston’s crowded receiver room has left Dell on the outs this season. He has just 137 yards in four games played this season. That makes his yardage total of 55.5 a little daunting. But Dell has good underlying metrics, he has fantastic talent, a great quarterback throwing him the ball and there are plenty of targets to go around without Collins in the lineup. The Texans face the New England Patriots this week and it would be no surprise if Dell had his 2024 breakout.
The betting market isn’t completely sold on the Commanders. They’re 6.5-point underdogs at the Baltimore Ravens this week. This is by far Jayden Daniels’ biggest test to date, and oddsmakers are making him and the Commanders prove something.
But what if the Commanders are legit? The offense has efficiency numbers that rival some of the best offenses in recent memory. Daniels is creeping up in the MVP odds and deservedly so. A competitive game against the Ravens would legitimize Washington’s start. Maybe we’ll look back and wonder how the 2024 Commanders could be getting almost a touchdown against any opponent.
The New York Giants came into the season with low expectations but they haven’t been bad. Losses to the Vikings and Commanders don’t look that bad anymore. They won at the Browns, kept it competitive against the Cowboys and won at the Seahawks without star rookie Malik Nabers. That’s not a terrible start to the season. Daniel Jones has been pretty good to start the season.
Compare that to the Cincinnati Bengals. They’re 1-4. If you want to look at the positive, the Bengals’ four losses are by a combined 15 points. They just haven’t won close games yet. The offense has come alive too. But do you trust them to go on the road as a 3.5-point road favorite?
How often will you see a team fire its coach, then less than a week later play for first place in its division? The Jets are 2-3 and just fired Robert Saleh but will be in first place of the AFC East if they beat the Buffalo Bills on Monday night. The Bills are a 2.5-point road favorite.
It’s hard to know what to make of the Jets after a London trip and a week of chaos. The Bills also have their issues. They’re in a rare streak of three straight road games, and there hasn’t been one easy game. They’ve faced the Ravens, Texans and now get a talented but lagging Jets team. If you think the Jets will use Saleh’s firing as a wakeup call and beat a road weary Bills team, it’s a chance to get them as a home underdog.
