(Bloomberg) — Mexico isn’t concerned by a possible return of former President Donald Trump to the White House, its top diplomat said, adding that the Republican nominee is “very pragmatic” and understands the importance of relations with the US’ southern neighbor.
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“We’re the first trading partner of the US right now,” outgoing Foreign Minister Alicia Barcena said in an interview on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. “We are trading around $800 billion per year. That’s huge — $1.5 million per minute.”
Mexico in 2023 replaced China as the top provider of goods to the US as the pandemic led to global shifts in supply chains. Amid that tightening economic relationship, border security has become a key election issue for the US. Polls ahead of the Nov. 5 election show immigration as a top concern for voters and that they prefer Trump — who has been critical of the current administration’s policies — to handle it.
Barcena noted that when Trump talks against migration, he usually doesn’t directly mention Mexico, and instead singles out countries like Venezuela. She estimated that nearly seven out of every ten agricultural workers in the US are Mexican and that the $63 billion in remittances that Mexicans in the US send home annually represent just 18% of their income, while the rest of the money they earn remains abroad.
“If he wins, then I think he will have to see this side of the story,” the minister said, adding that Mexico is willing to work with whoever wins the race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Barcena, an experienced diplomat, was appointed foreign affairs minister by outgoing president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in June 2023, after her predecessor Marcelo Ebrard resigned to pursue the ruling party’s presidential nomination. Previously, Barcena was Mexico’s ambassador to Chile and the executive secretary of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, known as Cepal, for almost 14 years.
Border Crossings
A series of policies by Mexico and the US have reduced border crossings of migrants to the US to around 3,300 per day from a peak of 12,500, Barcena said. The adoption of CBP One, an app to schedule appointments to seek entry to the US, and the humanitarian parole the US offers to migrants from Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Haiti were among those steps that allowed the decrease, she said.
“We changed the whole strategy,” she said. Barcena said the US and Mexico have been trying to find ways to address the structural causes of migration while adopting short-term mechanisms such as looking for more ways to return migrants to their home countries.
Mexico asked the US to allow for migrants to use the CBP One app not only in its northern states, but also in southern states like Tabasco and Chiapas, so they don’t have to travel to the north to apply for an appointment.
Mexico has also proposed to the US a program like the one it currently has with Canada for the agricultural sector, so workers can more easily work for a season and then return to their countries of origin, and later repeat the process, Barcena added.
The minister said that thanks to the government’s infrastructure projects, the construction sector in Mexico has been able to absorb some migrants going through the co, and they also have opportunities in agriculture, she said.
Lopez Obrador had nominated Barcena as a candidate for the presidency of the Inter-American Development Bank, but she withdrew from the race before the vote. President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum appointed her to serve as environmental minister starting Oct. 1 amid high expectations her administration may have a more climate-friendly approach. Barcena, a biologist, is also seen as a contender to become secretary-general of the UN.
China Relations
Barcena said that Mexico wants to start substituting its imports from China, but it wants to do so alongside the US and Canada. One of Mexico’s strategies has been applying more tariffs on Chinese products, a measure that should be part of a joint plan with its northern neighbors.
She said the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement, known as USMCA, has worked very well and should not have a major revision in 2026. The agreement, she added, has served to protect the North American automotive or steel industries from China.
“We have many Chinese companies, but what we do know is that they cannot trade with the north, and that’s what our USMCA says very clearly,” she said. “When you have clear rules, there’s no problem.”
–With assistance from Alex Vasquez and Maya Averbuch.
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