Puzzling 49ers draft trend highlighted by Gray, Latu cuts originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area

Tuesday’s NFL roster cuts are not just a sign of who will be a significant contributor this season for the 49ers.

It’s also an opportunity to reflect on past draft classes. San Francisco, notably, has an erratic history in the NFL draft under current coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch (since 2017).

The 49ers have found diamonds in the rough in Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy and fifth-rounders George Kittle and Dre Greenlaw. However, they’ve also had major first-round busts, like Trey Lance and Solomon Thomas.

Receiver Danny Gray and tight end Cameron Latu, both third-round picks in the last few years, were among the 49ers’ roster cuts on Tuesday. This has sparked increased scrutiny around the team’s success in that draft phase.

Only the players listed in all caps by Bay Area News Group’s Cam Inman remain on the 49ers’ current 53-man roster. With Gray’s release, only Fred Warner remains of the 49ers’ nine draft picks in the third round from 2017 to 2022.

Granted, even though the rest have been misses, acquiring a player of Warner’s caliber at a third-round price can’t be overstated. According to Pro Football Reference’s wAV metric, the three-time All-Pro is the most valuable player picked in the third round in 2018 — and the third-most valuable of that entire draft.

On the other hand, quantity is arguably just as important as quality in the NFL. That’s why the success of the 49ers’ more recent third-rounders is especially vital in extending their Super Bowl window.

Safety Ji’Ayir Brown and kicker Jake Moody have shown positive returns early in their careers, while offensive lineman Dominick Puni has earned a starting role entering his first NFL season. If all three can be reliable starters while on cheap rookie contracts, San Francisco will gain much-needed flexibility elsewhere on the roster to pay stars like Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk.

Additionally, even though the 49ers have been inconsistent in the third round, Lynch and the front office have made up for it with their prosperity on Day 3 of the draft. Teams can expect to draft around two Pro Bowl-caliber players per decade in the fourth through seventh rounds.

San Francisco already has drafted three Pro Bowl selections on Day 3 since 2018: Kittle, Purdy and safety Talanoa Hufanga. They’ve also found multiple other above-average contributors in those rounds, including Greenlaw and cornerback Deommodore Lenoir, to name a couple.

Ultimately, the lesson is not to overreact to a few busts in one specific round. After all, drafting players isn’t easy, particularly in later rounds. Though they’ve been inconsistent, the 49ers have been prosperous in acquiring high-end talent that negates earlier mistakes.

If anything, maybe fans should hope Lynch, Shanahan and Co. prioritize getting a high volume of late picks going forward instead of acquiring first rounders.

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