It’s Thanksgiving week in the NFL and a good time to take stock of the AFC’s quarterback outlook with a pinch of optimism. For every team. Even the Las Vegas Raiders.
No need to punch anyone in the cranberries this week. So off we go with thankful thoughts …
I’m thankful for the potentially heated MVP debate that Josh Allen sparked with a dramatic win over the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes, and is going to facilitate down the stretch. Between Allen, Baltimore Ravens Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley, Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff and whoever else shows up to the party, the 2024 vote could be one of the most interesting and split that we’ve seen in years. The schedule lines up nicely for Allen to have a big finish, with his two center stage moments coming against the San Francisco 49ers in prime time on Sunday night, and then against the Lions and Goff on Dec. 15. If Allen and the Bills win those, they likely won’t lose another game the rest of the season.
I’m thankful the Dolphins and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had two cakewalk wins heading into the Thanksgiving Day game at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers. They’re likely going to have needed them. Predictably, the Thanksgiving game is expected to be frigid — in the low 30s — and with a high possibility of snow. That’s the cruelest of Tagovailoa’s kryptonite weather, showcased by his much-discussed 0-7 record whenever the game temperature descends to 40 degrees or lower. Tagovailoa is clearly sick of talking about it, but he also knows it’s a real thing, adjusting some of his training toward colder climates. There are few bigger stages to snap a losing streak than in front of a Thanksgiving audience. This is Tagovailoa’s shot.
I’m thankful the Patriots didn’t buy into the late-stage personnel community nitpicking last spring, which framed quarterback Drake Maye as a raw project who lacked the ability to throw accurately downfield. I always thought Maye was the most overthought pick amongst the 2024 draft’s quarterbacks — likely because he’d had attention on him for so long. At one point, some evaluators were even focusing some of their criticisms through the NFL performances of fellow North Carolina products Sam Howell and Mitch Trubisky. New England’s staff never bought into that, and despite not having a roster that was ready to support him, they chose talent over timing. There’s still a lot of work to do and the results have been a grind at times, but Maye is elevating one of the most talent-thin skill position groups in the league, while surviving a bad offensive line. If the Patriots can get to the offseason with him healthy, they can use their league-leading 2025 salary cap space (more than $139 million at this point) to start wrenching on the pieces around him.
As disappointing as it turned out, I’m thankful the Jets’ failed Aaron Rodgers experience isn’t dragging out another season. After firing head coach Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas, there was no reason to keep stringing along a situation that really ended when Rodgers ruptured his Achilles. There was no putting this back together again if Rodgers was never going to be able to reclaim something close to the MVP form of 2021 … which, looking back, was probably never going to happen regardless of his Achilles injury. The underlying reality now is that the Jets do have ample young talent on the roster and can support the right quarterback at some point. Of course, that’s going to necessitate team owner Woody Johnson making the right leadership hires and then getting out of the way. In that respect, maybe the Jets are doomed no matter what. But at least a curtain can be dropped on the current charade.
I’m thankful the Baltimore Ravens could see running back Derrick Henry for what so many other franchises couldn’t: a powerful running back and an extremely useful wingman for a quarterback that brings some run-pass versatility to the table. Granted, Henry likely wouldn’t have been this perfect a fit for every NFL team. But there are quite a few other playoff contenders that he could have done damage for, like the Washington Commanders, Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs, to name a few. But it is Lamar Jackson who has ultimately reaped the rewards of the very affordable free-agent addition — and who will likely continue to reap those rewards next season, too, even if Henry’s contract requires an offseason pay bump for 2025. This seems like such a no-brainer now. And yet so many teams lacked the brains to make the move themselves last offseason.
I’m thankful Joe Burrow has stayed relatively healthy through 11 games this season and once again reminded everyone — including Bengals ownership — that he’s a special player who deserves uncommon investment in the pieces around him. Yes, Burrow is on pace for one of the best seasons of his career. And while it may ultimately come in a lost year for the franchise, it should at the very least shame ownership into paying No. 1 wideout Ja’Marr Chase at the top of the receiver scale and maybe even take one more pass at a Tee Higgins extension. Regardless, the way Burrow is playing, Chase has got to get done. And if Higgins leaves, the Bengals should use that money on adding to the running back room and beefing up the offensive line. The franchise could have as much as $70 million in cap space next offseason. Burrow has shown he’s worth spending all of it to make sure a season like this doesn’t happen again.
I’m thankful there has been a tone change inside the Browns organization when it comes to the future of Deshaun Watson. Gone are the days where there’s no question that Watson will be the starter moving forward. Now it’s very much up in the air, which feels like progress. We don’t necessarily know what that change will produce, but it’s clear that the Cleveland brain trust is finally weighing an alternative path after three straight dreadful seasons. Maybe that’s drafting a rookie or trading for a young veteran to compete with Watson. Maybe it’s redesigning the offense to completely tilt away from him in his remaining days as a starter. While the math certainly isn’t pretty, Cleveland really only needs to get through one more year with Watson on the roster before his dead cap number is low enough to absorb over the 2026 and 2027 salary caps.
The snow game loss to the Cleveland Browns was rough, but I’m thankful the Steelers are going to get a good remaining look at what Russell Wilson brings to the table under immense pressure. Pittsburgh’s last six games of the season are going to be a meat grinder, with three Super Bowl-caliber teams remaining (the Philadelphia Eagles, Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs), two against a Bengals team that can score with seemingly anyone, and one more against the Browns team that just beat the Steelers in the snow. If Wilson is still worth a contract extension and 2-3 year window as a starter, he’s going to have every chance to prove it … starting now.
I’m thankful that the Texans and C.J. Stroud have a Week 14 bye that couldn’t be coming at a better time. The Texans’ young quarterback has been sacked 17 times in the last four games, producing a 1-4 record in which Stroud’s touchdown-to-interception ratio has been a rough 3-to-5. After this week’s road game against the Jacksonville Jaguars — which is suddenly much more important than what we would have assumed a month ago — the Texans will get a chance to sit down, get a little healthier, and assess protection adjustments going into the home stretch. And they’ll need it, with the three post-bye contests coming against a Miami Dolphins defense that has beaten up opponents for three consecutive wins, a brutal December game at Arrowhead against the Kansas City Chiefs, and then a home game against a Baltimore Ravens team that could be fighting for the AFC North. Even the road finale against the Tennessee Titans seems unexpectedly uncertain, with Titans quarterback Will Levis suddenly showing some progress and beating Houston this past weekend. Again, thankfully the Texans get a listless Jaguars team this week and then a bye to come up with something for that offensive line.
I’m thankful the Colts have a potential bumper crop of quarterbacks coming in 2027, when this Anthony Richardson project finally wheezes its last bit of life in 2026 and a new regime will likely be looking for a reset. As much as I want to share the optimism of Richardson believers — who are continually searching for any signs of a breakthrough — I don’t think he’s ever going to be accurate enough to light a match and lift off the way Josh Allen did with the Buffalo Bills. I truly hope I’m wrong about that. But I think the Colts will have a house-cleaning by the 2027 draft and likely a very high pick in that class. The upside? I think there’s a very real chance that multiple special quarterbacks could emerge in that class. From South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (remember that name), to Texas’ Arch Manning (if he doesn’t declare for the 2026 draft) and Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola. Not to mention a handful of others that could emerge. It’s a long way out, but the 2027 class could mirror the 2024 class in the number of first-round quarterbacks. And thankfully for the Colts, if this Richardson plan fails, the downfall will position the franchise for a potentially special quarterback in 2027.
I don’t have much faith in a Jaguars coaching staff and front office that is pretty clearly at odds right now, but I’m thankful this (latest) lost year for quarterback Trevor Lawrence has at least produced the clarity of two other long-term building blocks on offense: rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr. and young, bruising running back Tank Bigsby Jr. Not to mention a 2025 draft in which the Jags currently have at least 10 picks in, prior to compensatory picks being awarded. I’m not sure what to say about the Jaguars and Lawrence at this point, aside from the reality that the quarterback has yet to play for an organization that has both a competent — and aligned — front office and coaching staff. Despite that problem, the organization did manage to find Lawrence a true, bonafide No. 1 wideout in Thomas Jr., and a tone-setting running back in Bigsby whose game looks very similar to the Detroit Lions’ David Montgomery when Bigsby is healthy and used properly. It’s not exactly a mega millions lottery win, but it’s something. One great draft similar to what the Lions pulled off in 2021 and Jacksonville could be in business very quickly. So long as ownership cleans up the considerable number of problems between the coaching staff and front office.
As with all quarterbacks who have immense talent but seem destined for the scrap heap, I’m thankful quarterback Will Levis has suddenly shown life in three straight games against playoff-caliber competition — including two outings on the road. Granted, those games have produced a 1-2 record, but Levis has seemed to settle down and look more comfortable in the pocket. His late third-quarter pick 6 against the Houston Texans on Sunday was bad, but Levis didn’t sink into the abyss afterward. Instead, he kept fighting and the Titans produced an improbable 32-27 win. In the expanse of NFL history, the path to being a good or even great NFL starter is rarely the stuff of instant success. Usually it takes either sitting on the bench and learning, or some ups and downs until a player finds their footing. Physically and from a skill standpoint, Levis is the kind of quarterback you would build in a laboratory. Until now, he’s been undermined by staggeringly poor decision-making. If he can battle through that and get to the other shore, everything is there for him to be successful.
I’m thankful Broncos head coach Sean Payton knew exactly what he was doing when he drafted rookie quarterback Bo Nix. History will probably forget some of the assessments that Nix had too many talent limitations, was too old or simply wasn’t worthy of anything close to a high first-round pick. An interesting side story, I remember meeting with a Broncos source before the draft and he was adamant that they weren’t going to trade up for a quarterback and would instead just let their guy come to them. I knew then that Nix had to be their guy. Then, when I visited with Payton in the summer, he was relaxed and almost giddy about what he thought he had gotten in his next QB. Nearly four months later, we can see why.
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Chiefs fans might not like it, but I’m thankful that Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes have had to slog through this kind of inconsistent season to achieve their 10-1 record and remain on track for their third straight Super Bowl. It’s good for the rest of the NFL for Kansas City to at least seem mortal, even if the result is still a nearly perfect record heading into December. With the Bills knocking the Chiefs out of the undefeated ranks and the Carolina Panthers oddly playing pretty effective football against them, there’s some blood in the water. I still think the Chiefs are the likeliest Super Bowl winner this season, but if they do pull off the three-peat, it will have been a much tougher path than the record suggests. And I’m betting Chiefs fans will appreciate this one more than any of the others before it.
I’m thankful that Brock Bowers will already be in place for whatever rookie quarterback gets selected by the Raiders in the 2025 NFL Draft. Whether it’s Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward or some other prospect that catches the fancy of owner Mark Davis, they’re going to have an immense uphill climb ahead of them. Thankfully for that player, tight ends are often the first best friends of rookie quarterbacks, and there is no better playmaking tight end in the NFL right now than Bowers. And he fits basically any quarterback style, too. I can’t find a litany of positives for any quarterback that goes to Las Vegas at this point, but at least Bowers is a pretty significant head start on building out the Raiders’ skill position group.
I’m thankful Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh sticks to who he is and protects his quarterbacks through investment in the offensive line and the running back room. When Harbaugh took over the Chargers and kept dropping hints that he was going to be the same guy he’s always been, it induced some eye-rolling simply because it sounded, well, old. But here we are about to enter December with running backs and running games suddenly feeling trendy again. That approach has helped temper the amount of pressure put on quarterback Justin Herbert after the wide receiver depth chart was retooled with younger players the last two drafts. The results? Herbert is getting back to that dynamic and exciting passer and athlete that had us so encouraged his first few seasons in the league. And it’s not going to stop here, either. Get ready for Harbaugh’s next old-school-rules addition this offseason: a dynamic tight end to help bring it all together.
