The first logical conclusion on Tuesday was to point the finger at Aaron Rodgers.

New York Jets owner Woody Johnson had just fired head coach Robert Saleh, and the dot-connecting had already been pre-drawn over a series of months. There was Saleh awkwardly using the term “unexcused” to describe Rodgers’ absence during the team’s full-squad minicamp … the curious video of Rodgers pushing Saleh away during an attempted hug and seeming to stare at him in annoyance during a win over the New England Patriots in September … to the week leading into the London game, when Rodgers took exception to Saleh talking about his cadence as a potential issue with false starts. Not to mention the general history of Rodgers, which has featured him having critical opinions about the job performance or decisions of essentially every NFL head coach he’s ever had.

So when the Jets sacked Saleh, the natural presumption was to look for Rodgers’ fingerprints.

The only problem? When you talk to people with some insight into how Johnson has absorbed this Jets season, you get the picture of a team owner who has been frustrated and possibly even waiting for an opportunity to pull the rug out from beneath his head coach. I spoke to two league sources on Tuesday who both had insight into Johnson’s thought process, and both painted the picture of a franchise owner who was quietly frustrated with his team’s performance stemming back to Rodgers’ torn Achilles and the 2023 season that was struck down with it. As it turns out, a lot of that frustration was pointed at Saleh, who Johnson essentially inherited after he concluded his ambassadorship and stepped back into full control of the team — and who he apparently found less impressive as a head coach than most of the outside world and also many (or most) people inside Jets headquarters.

With that assessment in mind, let’s tackle the basic questions head-on. Starting with …

Did Aaron Rodgers get Saleh fired?

From what I was told — no, he did not expressly get Saleh fired. That said, Rodgers’ frustration with some coaching staff decisions and tendencies certainly didn’t help Saleh.

The sources I spoke with described Johnson as skeptical of Saleh’s ability to get the entire team — offense, defense and special teams — to operate cohesively. Essentially, he wanted a more consistent presentation of the leadership qualities that Saleh was often credited with in media accounts, including the fiery energy and passion that made him a favorite head coaching candidate of Woody’s brother Christopher, during the team’s hiring process in 2021. According to the sources, Woody Johnson nitpicked Saleh as an overall game tactician, as well as shared frustrations over his sometimes perceived muted demeanor during games. One specific complaint recalled was Saleh botching challenge flags or not being more aggressive in making his case with officials.

“I think the biggest thing is Woody felt like Saleh could never get it all tied together in the three phases of the game,” one source said. “He wasn’t the same guy — it’s like, Saleh’s reputation in the media of him being a fiery leader, that’s not what Woody saw. I don’t think he was as impressed by Saleh as everyone else was. Remember, Woody is a fan. He sees the games like a fan does. … I also think the London game was kind of a moment where he was embarrassed by things. It’s in London and he was an ambassador [to the United Kingdom] and it’s against a guy who was a Jets quarterback [the Minnesota Vikings’ Sam Darnold]. He’s got people at that game and then it just looked out of sync and bad.”

“I think he was carrying this [critical opinion] about Saleh around for a while and [the London game] was just the opportunity to act on it.”

Johnson said Tuesday that he spoke to Rodgers prior to Saleh’s firing. Supposedly, Rodgers wasn’t consulted on it and the topic wasn’t discussed. I’m extremely skeptical of that being the truth. Rodgers has been treated like an executive inside the Jets since he arrived. For him to be entirely walled off from a decision on Saleh isn’t believable. I had one Jets executive tell me that if Rodgers had ever backed holdout defensive end Haason Reddick over the past few months, an extension likely would have been reached by now. Instead, Rodgers being indifferent about Reddick has taken all the pressure off to force a compromise. That’s pretty suggestive of his sway inside the team.

Was Saleh fired with a plan in mind?

This is where the other half of the equation unfolds. According to both sources, as much as Johnson wasn’t completely sold on Saleh, he had a well-known affinity for defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich. The sources said Johnson gravitated toward Ulbrich as a leader who could get the team working more cohesively. Neither could offer a specific point in time or anecdote explaining why Johnson had gravitated toward Ulbrich. However, it’s worth noting that when the San Francisco 49ers lost DeMeco Ryans in 2023 — after his hiring as the Houston Texans head coach — the 49ers went after two assistant coaches to replace Ryans: Kansas City Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and Ulbrich, who was heading toward his third year as the Jets’ defensive coordinator.

Without question, this is the kind of thing that raises the antennae of NFL team owners. They know who the most respected head coaches are in the league — as well as the organizations that have a stellar track record of making good coaching staff hires. Especially when it’s an offensive-minded head coach (who is ahead of the league curve) making a call on a defensive mind. If Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan or Andy Reid shows interest in someone on a defensive staff, that coach’s rating spikes inside the ownership suite. There’s zero question whether Shanahan’s poking around Ulbrich helped put him into the center of the radar of Jets ownership. It most certainly did. And this isn’t even about football ideology. Most of the NFL’s club owners have constructed or tended to billion-dollar empires in the corporate, retail, real estate or Wall Street landscape. And all of them know that when a remarkably successful or industry-leading competitor comes sniffing around key executives, they pay attention.

I believe that’s part of what positioned Ulbrich as Johnson’s alternative option to Saleh. And once Woody Johnson had that option, firing Robert Saleh became easier from the ownership perspective.

Was Nathaniel Hackett demoted before Saleh was fired?

There are conflicting accounts from sources of what exactly happened Tuesday. One is that Saleh arrived at the facility Tuesday, arranged a staff meeting and announced that he had stripped Hackett’s play-calling duties and awarded them to passing game coordinator Todd Downing … then was fired by Johnson. Another is that Saleh arrived at the facility and intended to call the meeting where Hackett’s play-calling duties were stripped, but was fired prior to the meeting taking place. And a third is that Saleh was merely considering taking away Hackett’s play-calling, but was fired before he could make a decision. The accounts coming out of the Jets’ facility are messy, at best. But all of these accounts are suggestive that Johnson fired Saleh to protect Rodgers’ guy — Hackett.

Here’s what I believe: What I was told Tuesday is that Johnson is as frustrated right now with Hackett as he has been with Saleh. And that Johnson might have greeted Saleh demoting Hackett as a positive sign that the head coach was making some definitive decisions with problem areas. But again, this goes back to Johnson already having made his mind up about Saleh and using the London performance as the impetus for his firing. At that point, Hackett wasn’t at the top of the priority list and Saleh was. So one ends up fired, and the other is left hanging in the wind.

So what does this mean about Nathaniel Hackett?

I believe Hackett is on the clock with the Jets and that Ulbrich is indeed seriously considering turning play-calling over to Downing. But I also believe, based on what I’ve been told, the most likely outcome is Hackett retaining play-calling for at least one more week. With the outcome being that if the Jets’ offense tanks on Monday night against the Bills, Hackett will have play-calling stripped from his duties and handed over to Downing. At which point, Hackett will be free to resign as offensive coordinator if he chooses — or he could continue on with the coordinator in title, similar to how the Philadelphia Eagles took away defensive play-calling from Sean Desai in 2023, but allowed him to keep the coordinator title for the remainder of the season.

Regardless of how it plays out, the implications seem clear: Saleh is out, but Hackett is not safe in any way. And every Jets fan should tune into the game against the Bills because it could change the direction of the franchise. If the Jets get hammered by Buffalo, there is a chance the season implodes and the next offseason features mass firings and a clean-slate rebuild. Conversely, if the Jets find a way to beat the Bills, the momentum launches a new triumvirate of Ulbrich, Rodgers and general manager Joe Douglas. All future employment (for everyone) dependent on how the 2024 season concludes.

What is next?

Based on everything I’ve been told, if Ulbrich and Douglas turn this change into the right direction and there is a playoff run, both could survive 2024 and return in 2025. That is significant, given that Douglas’ contract expires at the end of this season. That would mean Douglas earns some kind of extension and Ulbrich becomes the next coach of the Jets. It would also mean that ownership has settled on a path forward for the organization that includes the coach, GM and presumably, Rodgers at quarterback.

I don’t know if that’s the right result. But it’s a result, nonetheless — left to be sorted out in 2025 and beyond. A “one more year” result that should seem familiar to the Jets fan base.

Now on to Week 5 of the QB Room …

Given the Robert Saleh news, I’m going to cheat this week (because I make the rules) and bump this up to second in the batting order while giving you four passing charts instead of two. This provides a more fully contextual view of the two windows we’re presenting. And those windows are the first five starts (Weeks 1-5) for Aaron Rodgers this season vs. the first five starts (Weeks 2-6) of Zach Wilson in 2023.

Note that I am saying starts, and not games. I want to look at how each QB performed when they had the full week of practice and game prep built solely around them. That takes Wilson’s Week 1 performance in 2023 off the table since he practiced as the Jets’ backup before getting inserted when Rodgers tore his Achilles.

So, again: It’s five games vs. five games, in which both QBs had the traditional “starter” install with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. The two subjective things I want to note here are that each played different teams with different schemes over the expanse of their five games, and the offensive line talent is (in theory) better for Rodgers in 2024 than it was for Wilson in 2023. All of that said, they’re both basically working with the same skill position players, or at least comparable talent at wideout, running back and tight end.

With that in mind, here are the basic sets of numbers:

Zach Wilson: 5 starts, 2-3 record; 96-for-161 (59.6 percent) for 957 yards, 3 TDs, 4 INTs; 5.9 YPA; 17 sacks; 15 carries for 92 yards; 1 lost fumble

Aaron Rodgers: 5 starts, 2-3 record; 111-for-182 (61 percent) for 1,093 yards, 7 TDs, 4 INTs; 6.0 YPA; 13 sacks; 11 carries for 44 yards

From a “dumb stats” perspective, pretty similar production.

Now, the passing dot charts:

And next, the passing bin percentages:

So what do we see? Two guys who are completing very similar swaths of short, quick passes in very similar areas of the field, with fairly similar success rates in those areas, and the occasional intermediate or deep attempt with exponentially less success.

Overall, it’s fair to say that Rodgers has has been slightly more productive statistically — but it’s fair to say there has’t been the exponential leap forward that everyone (including me) expected when he took over. I also think back to wideout Garrett Wilson’s comment last week to 98.7 ESPN New York, when he was asked if the Jets were trying to find their offensive identity by doing different things. Here’s what Wilson said:

To be fair to Wilson, this comment was misconstrued as a direct criticism of the offensive scheme, when what he was actually saying was that the Jets already know their identity … they’re doing the same things that they’ve previously done … they’re not trying a bunch of new things to create their identity … and that they need to execute what they’re already doing to figure out if this is the right approach.

It was a fair answer. But I also think we’re starting to see the answer. Doing the same things that the Jets have done in the past to create their identity isn’t really moving this offense forward. That’s probably why the numbers it’s producing and the areas where it’s finding success appear to be so similar between Rodgers and Wilson.

It would seem that some kind of evolution is necessary, either with the play-caller or the scheme. The only other answer is that it’s dragging because the players aren’t executing it. And if that’s the case, it means the Jets likely need to make some roster changes. Which really isn’t going to happen in the middle of a season like this.

• The 66-yard, out-of-structure, across-his-body teardrop from Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels to wideout Terry McLaurin. Remember when there were some early season concerns that Daniels wasn’t going to have opportunities to take shots downfield? Yeah, those worries are as dead as Julius Caesar. Daniels finally had an off day with his accuracy, completing a very human 56 percent of his passes against a quality Cleveland Browns defense. But he made all the big plays when he had to, including defeating a 2-to-1 advantage for Cleveland’s blitzing defenders on this throw. Not only did he calmly identify McLaurin behind the defense, he hit him in stride with the kind of ball that had talent evaluators raving about his deep ball accuracy. He has a coolness to him that is rare.

• This 67-yard touchdown from Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud to wideout Nico Collins, which Next Gen Stats pegged at traveling 59.1 yards in the air. I initially eyeballed it at 61. Whatever the case, the impressive part of the throw is how casually effortless Stroud made it look. As much as we rave about the cannon of Indianapolis Colts’ QB Anthony Richardson, the fact is Stroud has one, too. And the ease of this throw is solid example of it. I don’t think this was his max strength, either.

• This 30-yard technician throw from Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams to receiver DJ Moore. Williams saw Moore in 1-on-1 coverage, then stared down the right side of the field post snap, moving the deep safety away from Moore’s side of the field. Once the safety was just getting out of position, Moore made a quick hip rotation and flat-footed throw that illustrated his arm. The ball location was perfect, leaving the corner boxed out and zero safety help to be found. Surgical stuff. Granted, against a bad defense — but this is what you expect from good quarterbacks facing bad teams.

• The crazy 6-yard jailbreak touchdown pass from Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson to tight end Isaiah Likely, which saw Jackson initially drop the shotgun snap, then stiff-arm Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Sam Hubbard twice while keeping his eyes in the end zone and waiting for an opportunity. The clutch touchdown continued a comeback that eventually landed the Ravens to a 38-35 overtime win. As soon as I saw the play, it reminded me of the nail-biting non-touchdown that Jackson threw at the end of the season-opener against the Kansas City Chiefs. That one was ruled incomplete because Likely’s toe was out of bounds. This one was a lock as soon as Likely came down with it. You can definitely see Jackson has an immense amount of trust in Likely on broken plays like this.

• Jordan Love’s horribly foolish doing-way-too much pick-6 against the Rams. I’ll let the video do most of the talking. I don’t want to bang on Love too hard, given some of the other fantastic plays he made, including an early deep shot to receiver Jayden Reed that was something to behold. Still, every once in a while even the best QBs get bitten by the “never lose a play” mentality. This was that. On the bright side, this kind of mistake seems to have become a rarity for Love.

tktk

Stock up

Atlanta Falcons’ Kirk Cousins

42-for-58, 509 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT; 4 sacks

He set the franchise record for passing yards and led his third game-winning drive of the season with a walkoff 36-30 overtime victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — all while looking like a guy who is a lot tougher in prime-time games than his reputation suggests. So far, he’s living up to his end of that sizable free-agent contract and looking like a quality gamble for Atlanta. He has also put the Michael Penix Jr. curiosity to sleep (although it can always awaken quickly). He’s still not quite on pace with his eight-game start last season, which was ended when he tore his Achilles. Now he’s got a chance to put up another big number this weekend against a bad Carolina Panthers defense.

Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson

26-for-42, 348 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs; 12 rushes for 55 yards; 1 fumble lost; 1 sack

He brought the Ravens back from a late deficit and made a circus play along the way (see the throws that blew my mind) to beat the Cincinnati Bengals. He’s squarely in the MVP race and playing some of the best football of his career through five games. And while it will be tough to maintain his current clip, he’s projecting for another 1,200-yard rushing season. So far, that five-year $260 million extension he signed prior to the 2023 season is looking like a very solid value play for the Baltimore Ravens. Someday we may look back at his game this week against the Washington Commanders and rookie QB Jayden Daniels as having shades of Michael Jordan playing a rookie Kobe Bryant in 1997.

Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow

30-for-39, 392 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT; 3 sacks

The first QB this season to make the stock up column despite losing his previous game. But well worth it with Burrow jogging everyone’s memories of him being one of the next elites in the league. The five touchdowns were the most he’s ever thrown in an NFL game and he’s leading the league with 12. It looks like he’s fully rebooted and humming again with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Unfortunately, the Bengals have an awful defense that can’t stop anyone and are on the verge of their season being over at 1-4. The next month is going to be extremely important in that respect, with games against the New York Giants, Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Eagles and Las Vegas Raiders. It’s feasible the Bengals could go 4-0 in that stretch if the offense keeps clicking the way it was in Sunday’s loss to the Ravens.

Stock down

Cleveland Browns’ Deshaun Watson

15-for-28, 125 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs; 4 rushes for 14 yards; 1 fumble lost; 7 sacks

Had it not been for the firing of Saleh and Rodgers drama, Watson would have taken up a lot of real estate in this week’s QB Room. Instead, we’ll tuck him away for later. In short, he looks lost, unfocused and rattled on the field. Cleveland’s beat-up offensive line can’t seem to protect him, and he seems reticent to run even when that tool is available to him. Unless he pivots into a staggering turnaround, the Browns’ refusal (and really, inability) to bench him is going to become one of the bigger stories in the league. Joe Flacco was an exponentially better player just one season ago, and I suspect he’s not on the roster now because the staff knew it would have fractured the locker room if Flacco had been sitting behind Watson at this juncture. Maybe the only hope at this point is praying for offensive line health and hoping Nick Chubb returns from injured reserve playing like an All-Pro.

Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen

9-for-30, 131 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs; 4 rushes for 54 yards; 1 sack

Allen never looked comfortable against the Houston Texans’ defensive front and wasn’t remotely as effective as his usual self in a 23-20 loss that ended with some odd offensive play-calling. After getting off to a hot start in his first three games and looking like an MVP candidate, Allen has been shut down in back-to-back losses to the Texans and Baltimore Ravens. One of the most concerning things from Sunday was Allen’s head bouncing hard off the turf during a fourth-quarter hit. He briefly went to the medical tent and the team said he passed a concussion test, quickly reinserting him into play. This whole scene seemed a little slimy, from the hit itself to Allen appearing to be handed a small object that was shaped like a smelling salt at one point. Not a lot to feel great about in this one. And now he goes on the road to face a New York Jets team that made a coaching change and will be playing desperate football.

New York Jets’ Aaron Rodgers

29-for-54, 244 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs; 3 sacks

We’ve given Rodgers the business in this column, so no need to take it any further. I’ll just leave you with his reaction when he entered the league’s vaunted 60,000-yard passer club, which was the perfect picture of frustration that has encapsulated this season.

• About that whole Davante Adams trade for the Las Vegas Raiders … it’s gotten a lot more complicated for the two quarterbacks at the helm of his two favored trade candidates. The New Orleans Saints’ Derek Carr is expecting to miss several weeks due to a strained oblique, and the New York Jets’ Aaron Rodgers is, well, hopefully you’ve gotten the picture by now. I don’t think the Saints are in any hurry to add Adams with Carr going down, and if the Jets lose on Monday night against the Bills, I think there will be some pause from ownership when it comes to committing more money to a team that might already be mailing it in by mid-October. Interestingly, both the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers are scraping the wide receiver market looking to acquire one via trade. Raiders owner Mark Davis would never send Adams to a team owned by the Hunt family, due to Al Davis’ beefs that go back decades. And I don’t think Adams has any attraction to that Steelers offense. The best thing for Adams would be Rodgers putting up a good game against the Bills and getting a win that keeps the Jets looking for another weapon.

• Since coming into the league in 2021, Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has never had a bona fide No. 1 star receiver. His first three seasons, his leading receivers have been Marvin Jones (2021), Christian Kirk (2022) and Calvin Ridley (2023). Only Ridley was ever really looked at like he could be a true high level No. 1 wideout, and he left after only one season. Well, enter first-round draft pick Brian Thomas Jr. from LSU, whose 85-yard catch-and-run touchdown in the Jaguars’ win over Indianapolis was clocked at 22.15 miles per hour, making him the fastest man on an NFL field this season. This is the kind of consistently explosive player Lawrence has never had access to, and Thomas is just now hitting his stride this season. Between his up arrow and the emergence of powerful running back Tank Bigsby alongside Travis Etienne, Kirk and Gabe Davis, Lawrence has an opportunity to finally break out.

• I was having a conversation with an AFC East executive Tuesday about the Jets’ quagmire and in the midst of it the news dropped that the New England Patriots were preparing to start rookie QB Drake Maye this weekend against the Houston Texans. His instant reaction was to invoke the memory of David Carr, the 2002 NFL draft’s No. 1 overall pick who spent the first five years of his NFL career getting destroyed behind terrible Texans offensive lines. Carr was sacked a league record 76 times as a rookie in 2002. In his fourth season he was sacked another 68 times, which stands as the third most sacks absorbed in a single season. I don’t think I’ve seen a decision as universally panned as this one. The Patriots’ offensive line has been beset with injuries, the skill positions are thin and the Texans have the fourth-best pass rush win rate in the league through five games. Generally most coaches and executives will tell you that you can’t be afraid to start rookie quarterbacks in adverse circumstances, but there’s a line of recklessness, too. We’re going to find out quickly if the Patriots have crossed it with this decision.

• One of the best unscripted moments during the Week 4 games was when Bill Belichick took the opportunity to casually roll out a “piped-in crowd noise” accusation against the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night’s Manningcast. It’s worth it just to see the face of Eli Manning when Belichick drops it, and Peyton immediately get a little salty. Also, Belichick switching gears mid-story to roast Derek Carr.

• Bo Nix is finally fully vested in the Sean Payton quarterback fraternity after having an animated exchange with the Denver Broncos head coach in the team’s 34-18 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. If you ever get time with any QB who started more than just a few games with Payton, they all have these stories. Especially Drew Brees, who used to drive Payton crazy when he’d change called run plays into passes at the line of scrimmage. I remember listening to Payton tell a story at the Senior Bowl about how he’d get his “ass ripped” by the media for not running the ball … but never being able to tell reporters that it was actually Brees who kept changing run calls into passes. Apparently, Nix crossed a line by flipping the direction of a run play. It was interesting to hear Payton describe it later, comparing Nix to 1980s movie character Ferris Bueller.