Our first Saturday at Saratoga and the card did not disappoint! We’ve got three graded stakes throughout the line up as well as some phenomenal allowance races mixed in there. I’m not going to cover the Grade 3 Kelso, the second race on the card, due to the shorter field. It’s got three legit runners in the five-horse field, and I lean to the #2 Mysterious Night and will put in a win bet as long as we get close to the 8/5 morning line price. Here are Saturday’s Saratoga best bets.
The highlight of the first weekend is always the Diana. It’s an extremely highly regarded race that Chad Brown normally has a chokehold on. Today is both the same and different. He’s got five of the ten entrants but not the morning line favorite. That honor rests on the shoulders of the #4 Didia, who has been ultra-consistent throughout her career. She enters the race off a dominant performance in the Grade 1 New York over this turf course. Didia possesses tactical speed, so she rarely takes herself out of the race and has a great turn of foot. She’s a legit contender here.
Of the Brown contingent, I like #6 Whitebeam the best. So much so, I will put her on top. She loves the course and has won at this mile and an eight distance today. She beat In Italian that day, who was the best female turf horse at the time. She has enough speed to go to the front, but she can rate right off of it as well. This will be her third race off the layoff, a logical improvement point. Both of those races were shorter. The added distance today should be helpful.
#2 Coppice has burned money in her first two starts in the US while losing both times, going off as a sub 2-1 favorite. In both starts, she had some trouble at the gate, which is something she will need to fix today. The difference is the price is going to be enticing. Coppice is 8-1 on the morning line, and I will be surprised if she does not float up from there. The talent is there, and she just needs to put it together here in the States.
#8 Neecie Marie is an interesting price in this spot. She beat Whitebeam earlier this year and ran second to Didia last time out. She will be flying late, so the faster they go early, the better for her chances today.
Picks: 6-4-2-8
Saratoga Best Bets: $50 Win #6
The Samford will feature some of the best 2-year-old males in the country trying to make it to the Grade 1 Hopeful at the end of the meet. #1 Mentee will be a heavy favorite in this spot. He broke on top and was very quick before having to hang on at the wire, going five furlongs on debut. Today, he will have to get an extra furlong, but with a race under his belt, that’s not a huge issue for me. He’s clearly controlling speed, a huge arrow to have in your quiver in an early 2-year-old stakes and the rail draw is a positive as well. He’s too short to bet to win, but I do like a price in second.
#2 Mr. Squeaky Wheels is a big price at 15-1, but ships in for sneaky trainer Kevin Rice. He’s been able to pop with horses at prices at this meet over the last few years. The key is Jose Ortiz, a relative of his, picking up the mount. That’s been the tell of when Kevin Rice horses have been live, and I would be surprised if that was any different today.
#8 Mo Plex is another promising young colt who won impressively on debut. Irad Ortiz rode for trainer Kevin Englehart that day, just the seventh time he has done so in the last two years. They have won five of the seven races, and Irad is back aboard today.
#6 Studlydoright won on debut at Laurel before upsetting a stakes race here during the Belmont Festival, improving nicely. He will have to take another step forward today, but he should have pace to run at, and we know he can win over this course.
Picks: 1-2-8-6
Saratoga Best Bets:
$50 Exacta 1 – 2
$20 Trifecta – 1/2,8/2,8
Spot Plays:
Saratoga Race #7 – $50 Win #3
Saratoga Race #6 – $50 Win #1
