Senators on the foreign affairs committee amended a controversial agricultural trade bill Wednesday, putting it on a path back to the House of Commons.
The private member’s bill proposed by Bloc Québécois MP Luc Thériault, C-282, would prohibit Canadian trade negotiators from making future concessions opening up its protected dairy, egg and poultry markets.
As American dairy farmers continue to agitate against Canada, the Bloc’s bill is meant to protect Canada’s industry from any more financial losses. But with U.S. President-elect Trump heading back to the White House, standing up for these farmers risks a trade war capable of inflicting economic harm far beyond these farm commodities.
“It is not a bill about supply management, but rather about trade policy,” Sen. Peter Harder told the committee as he moved an amendment. “I believe we need to de-risk this bill.”
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A small share of market access for foreign competitors was the final card Canada had to play over the last decade to land major trade deals with the European Union and Pacific Rim trading partners, and it was critical factor in efforts to placate Trump during the 2018 renegotiation of the North American free trade agreement.
Harder’s amendment neuters C-282 by making its prohibition on new concessions inapplicable to pre-existing trade agreements (like the revised NAFTA), a renegotiation of an existing deal (like the upcoming review of the Canada-United States-Mexico agreement, CUSMA, in 2026), or a treaty negotiation that’s already underway when this bill comes into force (such as Canada’s ongoing talks with the United Kingdom, where access to the cheese market is a sticking point).
The amendment was approved by the committee in a vote of 10-3. Marc Gold, the Liberal government’s representative in the Senate, participated in the committee’s review of the legislation and voted against it — consistent with Trade Minister Mary Ng’s recent letter to senators urging them to pass the bill quickly.
There were more than enough Independent senators around the table who shared Harder’s concerns and backed the amendment.
“While the committee respects the will of the House, the committee does not agree that this bill represents sound public policy,” said Sen. Marty Deacon, amplifying concerns expressed by many of the 52 different witnesses who testified before senators this fall — far more people than the Commons trade committee consulted when it approved C-282.
Conservative senators noted there were only four senators casting votes who were not appointed by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and suggested the Liberals were undermining this bill through the “back door” of the Senate because they did not have the political will to vote against it in the House.
In addition to Harder’s amendment, the committee is adding an “observation” to the bill when it reports it back to the full Senate for its final votes, to make it explicit that this move should not be interpreted as a lack of support for farmers.
The committee “wishes to make clear that it has taken no view on supply management in Canada and has focused its decisions on this legislation’s impact on Canada’s crucial trade relationships as an export-oriented nation reliant on trade,” the observation says.
The Bloc Quebecois caucus held a news conference in a dairy barn last winter when their caucus met to plot strategy for the upcoming session of Parliament. Because one-third of the Conservative caucus voted against C-282, this trade bill could be a useful wedge with rural voters in the next election. (Jacques Boissinot/The Canadian Press)
The legislation passed the House of Commons with broad support from all four political parties — only a few Liberals and a few dozen Conservatives voted against it. But as with any private member’s bill, the road to passage is slow — particularly in the Senate, where non-government bills are not prioritized for debate.
Earlier this fall, in an effort to hurry up legislation that resonates with the Bloc’s rural base, Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet made its passage one of two conditions the Liberals needed to meet by Oct. 29 in order for the Bloc to continue to vote against motions of non-confidence in the House. When that deadline wasn’t met last month, Blanchet announced the Bloc would work to defeat Trudeau’s government.
If the full Senate accepts the committee’s report and amends C-282, it will be sent back to the House of Commons for re-consideration. But the Commons has been stuck for weeks in a filibuster — a never-ending series of debates on privilege and concurrence motions that blocks any attempts to return to government business.
Even if MPs get back to legislating at some point, it’s not clear that this Bloc bill would supersede other Liberal priorities for what remains of the House’s time, as the clock ticks down to the fixed date for a federal election next fall.
Another confidence motion risks pulling the plug on this Parliament even sooner than that, spiking private members bills like this one.
The Senate’s sober second thought on C-282 began long before Trump’s return to the White House was confirmed. But his escalating trade threats may focus minds on the economic harm Canada may trigger for other industries by provoking American anger with another layer of dairy protections.
“I don’t think [C-282] has really been on the radar for many policymakers in Washington, DC, beyond people who focus specifically on the U.S.-Canada relationship,” said John Dickerman, the Business Council of Canada’s vice-president for U.S. policy.
“If that bill passes, that will change immediately, and I think it will cause widespread concern among policymakers in DC with responsibility for trade.
“Concern is probably too conservative of a word to use there. It could possibly be an emergency for this U.S.-Canada relationship going forward, particularly in the context of how [the mandatory review of CUSMA in 2026] is looked at.”
Carlo Dade, the director for trade at the Canada West Foundation, recently returned from meetings with Trump campaign insiders in Washington and described the threat in even harsher terms.
“It’s a red flag being waved at the table. You’re unnecessarily putting a target on our back,” he said.
The Biden administration has triggered a series of disputes over the way Canada is administering tariff-free dairy quotas under CUSMA to the benefit of its domestic processors.
“We pulled the fast one on the author of The Art of the Deal and now we’ve gone back to put in legislation to keep our ill-gotten gains. That’s a polite reading from the Americans. If you want to get out a bunch of four-letter words, you’ll come closer to how they feel about this,” Dade said.
“The Americans are going to demand concessions. Not only did we, in their perception, trick them by promising access that wasn’t there under the first negotiation, then we turn around and we prevent correcting that mistake.”
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New Zealand is locked in a similar dispute over Canada’s alleged non-compliance with the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which opened Canada’s dairy market to Pacific Rim partners.
“There are other countries that are going to jump in with the Americans, so for folks who are looking to win favour with the Americans, beating up on Canada may give them an easy leg-up,” Dade warned.
Inu Manak, a trade expert with the Council on Foreign Relations, said current trade disputes are signs that under CUSMA the system is not working to everyone’s satisfaction.
“The Trump administration sees everything as transactional, right? And so for them it would say, ‘Look, you have to put a stop to this,’ and they will call on the prime minister to do just that,” she said. “I think that the Trump administration would be very vocal about this.
“I think what we’re getting to is a place where U.S.-Canada relations on trade are quite tense, but they’re tense because both sides are sort of not willing to compromise anymore.”
