On the morning of Aug. 11, the Tigers woke up in San Francisco looking like a team playing out the string. They were 55-63, eight games below .500. The Toronto Blue Jays, perhaps this season’s most disappointing outfit, had an identical record.
Two weeks earlier at the trade deadline, Detroit had traded away its second-best starting pitcher and an every-day outfielder. Six teams stood between the Tigers and the American League’s final playoff spot. Nobody in the Motor City was thinking about October baseball.
Since that morning, the Tigers are 30-11, the best mark in MLB.
With one weekend left in the regular season, Detroit’s magic number is one. All three of its remaining games are at home against the historically abysmal Chicago White Sox. A postseason berth, which felt impossible six weeks ago, is borderline inevitable now. On Thursday, the Tigers authored yet another late comeback against the Tampa Bay Rays to secure a sweep.
In the eighth inning, outfielder/third baseman Matt Vierling — who at 28 years old qualifies as a methuselah on this team — raced home to score the go-ahead run on a Justyn Henry Malloy sac fly. On popping from his headfirst slide, Vierling pumped his fist into the air and roared like a bengal. An inning later, Tigers closer Jason Foley punched out Jose Siri to end the game. A rocking crowd rose to its feet.
Team broadcaster Jason Benetti offered an unforgettable capper: “A city that doesn’t care about the odds has a baseball team to match.”
So what is this team? Who is on it? How has this group conjured such a miraculous turnaround? And can the “Gritty Tigs” make noise come October?
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A manager cannot throw scoreless innings or drive in runs, at least not anymore (we should bring player-managers back — that would be hilarious), but there’s no doubt that Hinch has made an enormous impact on this club. For five years, Hinch helmed the Houston Astros through the most successful era in franchise history, with four postseason berths, three ALCS appearances and a 2017 World Series title. He was let go in January 2020 after his team was engulfed in the infamous can-banging, sign-stealing scandal that rocked the baseball world.
But Hinch emerged from his one-year suspension with his reputation very much intact. People still believed he was a good manager, one worthy of a job, of redemption. By comparison, his old boss, former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, has not worked in baseball since. Detroit hired Hinch before the 2022 season, and while the Tigers underwhelmed in his first two seasons, that had more to do with the roster than the manager.
Over the past six weeks, Hinch’s value has shone through. He provides a steady, calm voice that has experienced the game’s biggest moments. He has also showcased a masterful understanding of his own bench and bullpen, guiding the Tigers through such a phenomenal run, despite having just two traditional starting pitchers for most of that stretch. He used all 14 available position players in Thursday’s win.
Most importantly, Hinch has made this team believe in itself. This is, simply put, a man who knows what he’s doing.
Six weeks from now, Skubal will win the American League Cy Young award. There’s a strong chance that he’ll do so unanimously. It will be an immensely deserved honor. The Tigers ace has the circuit’s lowest ERA, its most strikeouts and its second-most innings.
And over his past eight starts during Detroit’s surge into contention, Skubal has taken things to another level, with a 1.85 ERA and 57 strikeouts across 48 2/3 innings. When he pitches, the Tigers usually win.
A crucial thing to keep an eye on is whether the Tigers can lock up a playoff spot before Sunday, the next day Skubal is slated to pitch. If he is needed to throw on the season’s final day, that would almost certainly leave him unavailable for a potential AL wild-card series. If the Tigers can secure their wild-card spot before then, it’s likely Skubal instead prepares for Game 1.
Over this club’s 41 games since Aug. 11, Tigers starting pitchers have thrown just 150 2/3 innings. That’s an average of 3 2/3 frames per game. The only two traditional starters for that stretch have been Skubal and rookie Keider Montero. Reese Olson, who was a regular starter for the first few months of the season, has maxed out at four innings since his return from injury a few weeks ago.
This strategy has put an enormous strain on Detroit’s bullpen, but it’s up to the task. Since Aug. 11, Detroit relievers have made 65 multi-inning relief appearances. The next closest team, the Chicago White Sox, have made just 49. The pen sextet of Brant Hurter, Tyler Holton, Brenan Hanifee, Sean Guenther, Will Vest and Jason Foley each have an ERA of 2.22 or lower during that span. The team’s 2.27 relief ERA over that stretch is the best in baseball.
Detroit also just called up 22-year-old Jackson Jobe, perhaps the game’s best pitching prospect, to join the bullpen for the stretch run. He tossed a scoreless frame in his debut Wednesday.
Here are the players this season with at least 250 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, ranked by OPS:
Aaron Judge (likely AL MVP)
Shohei Ohtani (likely NL MVP)
Bobby Witt Jr. (likely AL MVP runner-up)
Juan Soto (likely AL MVP third-place finisher)
Kerry Carpenter
The Tigers’ lefty-swinging DH missed almost three months due to a back issue, returning on Aug. 13. As the above numbers indicate, he is a monster against northpaws; his .OPS is .953 since he came back. Teams attack him with lefty hurlers late in games, but Carpenter is a legitimately elite hitter whenever he has the platoon advantage.
The most famous Detroit Tiger, Javier Báez, hasn’t played since Aug. 22. Signed to a hearty contract ahead of the 2022 season, the big-swinging shortstop has been utterly abysmal for the Tigers, with a .221/.262/.347 line while wearing navy and orange.
But fame is overrated. Winning is better, as the Tigers have shown. Riley Greene was the team’s lone position player All-Star this season; he has continued raking. Former No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson, who was demoted to Triple-A after a horrendous first half, has been much improved since his recall on Aug. 17. Zach McKinstry, Matt Vierling and Parker Meadows have all taken steps forward. Hinch mixes and matches often to ensure advantageous matchups.
It’s not an overwhelming lineup — Detroit is 23rd in MLB in home runs this year — but it’s getting the job done.
