If you’re remotely familiar with the National Football League these days, you know what people say about both modern offenses and the value of running backs within them. Over the last two decades, with the increase in having multiple receivers on the field, and the decreasing value of running backs both in the draft and free agency, it’s now writ large that the NFL is a passing game, and that running backs don’t really matter.
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As is the case with any absolute, there’s more to the story, and that’s been especially true in the 2024 season. Most people already know that Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles and Derrick Henry of the Baltimore Ravens are re-jiggering the concept of running back value with their MVP-level seasons, but there’s an undercurrent of creative and effective run games throughout the league in 2024 that is showing up more and more in the metrics.
In 2023, there were 12 running backs who exceeded 1,000 yards from scrimmage on the season, compared to 28 receivers. That’s been par for the course for a long time. The last season in which there were more 1,000-yard running backs than receivers was 2005 (23 running backs, 19 receivers), and the NFL is on pace for another one of those years. Through Week 16, there are 11 running backs with 1,000-yard seasons, and 11 receivers.
But in 2023, there were six teams that averaged at least 4.5 yards per carry; in 2024, that number has doubled to 12. Last season, two teams had a Rushing EPA of over +10.0; this season, that number has increased to seven. And in 2023, seven teams ran the ball on at least 45% of their offensive snaps; that number has increased to 13 in 2024.
Why is this so? First of all, this is an example of offensive play-callers catching up to the reality that what we have long regarded as base defense – three linebackers and four defensive backs on the field – is no longer base defense. Now, nickel defenses (two linebackers and five defensive backs) is the true base defense for the majority of NFL teams, and the majority of defenses are more prone to playing dime defense (one linebacker and six defensive backs) than they would the old-school stuff. That naturally leads to fewer stacked boxes (seven or more defenders at the defensive line and linebacker levels) than in previous eras, and you want to run the ball more and pass the ball less against light boxes. That’s just basic math and common sense.
Within that construct, there’s the fact that a lot of the NFL’s best schematic minds have come up with some new and innovative run concepts.
Outside of the usual single-back ideas – all kinds of iterations of man and zone blocking – there are ways in which NFL teams have conspired to make their run games much more interesting than in previous eras. What you now see more than ever is the Pistol formation as the root construct. Invented by Nevada head coach Chris Ault in 2005 – he perfected it with a lightly recruited mobile quarterback by the name of Colin Kaepernick – the Pistol has the quarterback about three yards behind the center, and the running back about three yards behind the quarterback. That was the initial version that started to take the NFL by storm in the early 2010s; now, teams have expanded it to formations in which a second back is parallel to the quarterback in offset Pistol sets, and that’s where all the power and misdirection elements come into play.
Another wrinkle you’re seeing more and more is the re-implementation of Pony personnel, in which two backs are in the backfield regardless of formation. Back in football’s olden days, the pro set, with two backs on either side of the quarterback, who aligned under center, was how most running plays happened. That started to recede in the 1990s, when teams wanted more receivers on the field. Now, Pony personnel can provide rushing advantages in different ways.
“Pistol Pony Misdirection” may sound like a long-lost Eagles song, but Don Henley and Glenn Frey didn’t write this one. The two most inspired authors of this concept in the NFL are Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur and Washington Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.
Both teams have the added advantage of mobile quarterbacks who can create additional defensive confusion. Washington’s Jayden Daniels is more of a pure runner than Green Bay’s Jordan Love, but the point remains: if you can put an opponent’s linemen and linebackers in serious conflict with your ability to zig when the other guys expect you to zag, it’s a real problem.
In Green Bay’s case, it’s mostly about lead back Josh Jacobs, and how well LaFleur is able to design counter and delay runs that Jacobs is able to take to their ultimate endgame.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers under first-year offensive coordinator Liam Coen are another team that will set defenses on edge with their Pistol Pony misdirection stuff, and their highly gifted slew of running backs, led by fourth-round rookie Bucky Irving from Oregon.
Other teams take the lead blocker concept, which has been around as long as football has been around, to new heights. Both the Ravens and the Chargers have big ringers to make defending their run concepts far more difficult. In Baltimore’s case, it’s 6ft 3in, 305lb Patrick Ricard, who is classified as both a fullback and a tight end, but whose primary role is to pave the way for Henry and anybody else who might be running the ball for the Ravens.
For the Chargers, who employ former Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman, it’s 6ft 4in, 296lb Scott Matlock, who was actually selected in the sixth round of the 2023 draft out of Boise State as an interior defensive lineman.
You can also include the San Francisco 49ers (with fullback Kyle Juszczyk) and the Miami Dolphins (with fullback Alec Ingold) on this list. No surprise to the similarities there, as Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel was 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan’s run game coordinator from 2017 through 2020.
The Buffalo Bills, who have one of the NFL’s most efficient run games with James Cook and Ray Davis as the primary backs, add their own concept: they have run the ball with six offensive linemen instead of five at by far the league’s highest rate (95 attempts), with Alec Anderson as the sixth man up front.
The New Orleans Saints under first-year offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak run with an interesting hybrid of Pistol misdirection, and letting the big dog eat with halfback Alvin Kamara as the primary instigator, and 6ft, 245lb fullback Adam Prentice as the secret weapon. Either way you go, these are the two ways you’ll see the NFL’s most prolific and effective rushing teams doing their thing.
However NFL teams arrive at their ideal version of the run game, there’s no question that those ground attacks are more crucial to success in the 2024 season, and more and more coaches are bringing their own spices to the recipe. How long that lasts is based primarily on the abilities of defensive coaches to adapt to a more physical, loaded series of schemes without getting gashed against great quarterbacks.
For the moment? The old school has reclaimed the NFL’s offensive mindsets, and throwback football fans can rejoice.
