:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73433117/FreeAgencyPrimer_AP_Ringer.0.jpg "The Nine Most Intriguing Questions of 2024 NBA Free Agency")
With the NBA draft behind us and free agency set to open on June 30, here’s a look at a bunch of questions that interest me. One way or another, they’ll be answered over the next few weeks.
This is by far the most important and mysterious question of an offseason that’s already yielded a seismic trade between the Knicks and Nets. George is a top-25 player and one of the league’s five to 10 most versatile stars.
With elite two-way chops and an offensive skill set that has zero worrisome holes, he’s still good enough to swing the title race or lead an otherwise lottery-bound try-hard on a real playoff run. George’s shotmaking is unquestioned. He can be a clean, lead ball handler who runs 30 pick-and-rolls one night and a complementary scorer at the center of sets that leverage his off-ball gravity the next. He’s coming off a season in which he finished tied for fourth in total steals and fifth in total made 3s, crossing the 2,000-minute barrier for the first time as a Clipper. Not bad. Catchall metrics still adore his impact, too. Last year, George finished eighth in estimated plus-minus—right above Donovan Mitchell, Tyrese Haliburton, Steph Curry, Devin Booker, and Jayson Tatum—and 10th in DARKO.
The catch? He’s 34 years old, he’s injury prone, and he wants a long-term maximum contract that his current team, the Los Angeles Clippers, has yet to offer. From here, several options sit in front of him. George can re-sign in L.A. on an agreeable long-term deal. He can sign with a team that has a ton of cap space, such as the Sixers or Magic. Or he can opt in to his $48.8 million player option and either spend another year with the Clippers or be traded.
The opt-in-and-trade scenario allows many more suitors—the Los Angeles Lakers, Golden State Warriors, Miami Heat, and every other aspirational organization that would like to add a do-everything-effortlessly All-Star—to enter the chat. But right now, my eye is on the Houston Rockets.
Even before Monday night’s blockbuster trade telegraphed a Hail Mary pursuit of Kevin Durant, there were several reasons to think Houston might make a run at George: (1) Ownership has publicly eschewed patience and development in favor of immediate gratification, (2) the team possesses an ideal combination of blue-chip prospects and draft picks to deal, and (3) its roster could really use a proven, go-to option in the fourth quarter. (The Rockets were 17-23 in clutch games last year, with the seventh-worst true shooting percentage in crunch time.)
Assuming the Suns do not move Durant before October—one source told The Athletic’s Shams Charania there was a “zero percent chance” anything would happen soon—George could be a sweet consolation prize. Getting any actual deal done would require George’s consent and include some complicated hypotheticals, though. Would the Clippers say yes to a package centered on Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, and draft picks? What if they want Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, or Amen Thompson instead?
It’d be a fascinating and bold alliance that I wouldn’t advise but could understand. George is still an All-NBA-caliber star. On a deep, rising team that’s full of athleticism, promise, and skill, he makes sense in the near term. Would he and the Rockets ever win the title? Almost definitely not. But depending on whom they give up to get him, Houston could be competitive in just about any playoff series.
Odds are none of this will happen, but the Rockets’ appetite for improvement beyond organic growth remains one of the most fascinating variables of the summer. Let’s talk about that some more.
We know Houston wants to accelerate its timeline even more than it did when it signed Brooks and Fred VanVleet last summer. Those moves helped yield 19 more wins than the previous season. (It could’ve been even more: Houston finished dead last in win differential.)
The Rockets are so fascinating now because of rumors that indicate they’re willing to advance at any cost, which raises a few questions. Where does that grand ambition end? How many of their recent lottery picks are untouchable? How many of their future draft picks are expendable? What’s their actual goal beyond “get better”? Is it to make the play-in? Be a top-six seed in a loaded Western Conference? Win a playoff series? Contend for a championship?
If I ran this team, I would do absolutely nothing and let one of the best young cores in the NBA develop at its own pace. Restraint should be their best friend, with an extremely bright future and a treasure chest of assets. But if that isn’t the front office’s reality, we could see the Rockets add even more veterans who can up the short-term win total at the potential cost of greater success down the line.
(Sidebar: So much is being made of the magical run Houston had in March after Sengun suffered a season-ending leg injury, which has somehow fueled the idea that the Rockets are better without their best player. Here are the teams Houston beat during that nine-game win streak: the Spurs, Wizards (twice), Jazz (twice), Cavaliers, Bulls, Blazers, and Thunder (in overtime without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander). The Rockets then lost six of their next seven games. Their opponents: the Mavericks (twice), Timberwolves, Heat, Warriors, Magic, and Jazz. Sengun has holes in his game. He was also a finalist for last season’s Most Improved Player award, is younger than Chet Holmgren, and will be an All-Star sooner rather than later. Trading him in almost any scenario would be asinine.)
Instead of a huge swing, why don’t the Rockets tweak around the edges in a way that won’t harm what they can be three years from now? Under Ime Udoka, Houston finished first in opponent 3-point percentage and did a decent job of limiting opportunities at the rim. It also fouled a ton. Some of that profile is by design. Some of it’s luck. Either way, it may look to bolster its back line with a defensive anchor.
Last summer, Houston almost signed Brook Lopez away from the Milwaukee Bucks. Why not pursue him again? Dillon Brooks in a straight-up swap would give Milwaukee more positional flexibility and someone who can actually stay in front of their man on the perimeter (and then some). The Rockets can see how Sengun works beside a floor-stretching rim protector and, for a year or two, solve a pressing issue.
Another option with a longer runway (in theory) could be Portland’s Robert Williams III, the brilliant, albeit oft-injured, big who helped turn the Celtics into a true defensive menace during Udoka’s one season as their head coach. The Blazers just drafted Donovan Clingan to be their franchise center, making Time Lord someone they’re likely to trade. When healthy, he can still provide a Defensive Player of the Year candidate’s impact. And speaking of the Blazers …
Portland is a bad team in the beginning stages of a foundational rebuild. It spent over half of last season trying to win games at the cost of developing its franchise talent. Now, after flipping Malcolm Brogdon’s salary to the Wizards for Deni Avdija (a steadily improving 23-year-old on a phenomenal contract) and ducking under the luxury tax, Clingan, Scoot Henderson, and Shaedon Sharpe can be the focus.
More trade possibilities exist, though. Jerami Grant is 30 and has $132 million left on a contract that runs through 2028. Anfernee Simons is a 25-year-old explosive scorer who doesn’t naturally complement the young(er) core. Williams III and Deandre Ayton aren’t critical building blocks on a team that just drafted Clingan. All of the above are expendable with varying degrees of appeal around the league.
If it embraces a more aggressive youth movement, Portland can also put itself in pole position for a quality pick in what’s expected to be a loaded draft. The lottery’s odds don’t reward tanking like they used to—and there’s some value in soaking in the competition of a play-in tournament game or two—but that doesn’t mean the Blazers, Wizards, Bulls, Nets, Jazz, Hornets, and Raptors shouldn’t approach this offseason with an eye toward 2025.
Butler looks on during the Heat’s game against the Philadelphia 76ers in the 2024 NBA play-in tournament.
Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images
The Heat always feel like they have enough. Sometimes they’re right. Erik Spoelstra is a genius, and everyone who plays for him takes the floor with a competitive edge that overshadows any talent deficiency. But sweat and grit and will can only get you so far. Times are tough in Miami right now, with some kind of pivot on the horizon.
All credit is warranted for their magical Finals run in 2023, but this has been a play-in team two years in a row. Jimmy Butler’s status is foggy. He will turn 35 in September and is coming off another injury-plagued season that included zero minutes in the postseason. More importantly, the Heat were hesitant to offer Butler the two-year, $113 million extension for which he’s eligible, and now Butler has said he won’t sign any extension, preferring to play out the rest of his contract.
That money would’ve essentially locked Miami into an expensive, mediocre existence, with a lower ceiling than some of their conference rivals. If the Heat re-sign Caleb Martin without any corresponding cost-cutting moves, they will officially venture into the second apron, which restricts several team-building mechanisms and prohibits them from aggregating any outgoing contracts in a trade. Butler not signing that extension also means he can be an unrestricted free agent next summer, when he’ll be able to ink a $243 million, four-year deal with the Heat; or a $171 million, three-year deal with another team. Both sides are inheriting some risk.
So … where do they go from here? What can they do to get back in the championship conversation? Maybe their best option is to do nothing and enjoy stability. Maybe internal growth, continuity, the best coach in the world, and better health-related luck is enough to make another real run. Maybe there’s upside to lineups that feature Terry Rozier, Tyler Herro, Butler, and Bam Adebayo—units that featured those four appeared in only 10 games, with an underwhelming plus-1.0 net rating—alongside improved versions of Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic, plus whatever they can scrounge out of first-round pick Kel’el Ware.
Resignation and status quo don’t feel like something Riley is willing to sit with, though, even if change for the sake of change is the type of desperate move he isn’t known for. Can he somehow land Paul George? Donovan Mitchell? Trae Young? Um, LaMelo Ball? Does he keep the powder dry and hope Giannis Antetokounmpo or Joel Embiid demand a trade?
Adebayo’s max extension was an inevitable splash of good news. But it doesn’t really move the needle. The Heat are in a delicate spot right now.
In case you haven’t heard, the Sixers can open up over $50 million in cap space this summer. With it, Morey, one of the most creative front-office executives in NBA history, has a blank canvas to construct a championship-caliber team around Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. But with myriad options comes even more pressure.
Morey can sign one super-expensive free agent and then fill in around the margins. He can spread the money around and collect mid-priced pieces who complement his two franchise stars. He can also take some of the draft picks in his cupboard and exchange them for established talent, sliding those existing contracts into Philly’s room.
If I were him, I’d prioritize fit by adding the most capable two-way complementary pieces I could find. Not saying all these names are 100 percent attainable, but adding two or three of Cam Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Marcus Smart, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Klay Thompson, Bruce Brown Jr., Bogdan Bogdanovic, Duncan Robinson, and Caleb Martin could bear more fruit than one Paul George.
At the end of April, Pelicans vice president of basketball operations David Griffin made some eye-opening comments about the state of a team he’s overseen since 2019. “Whereas in the past we’ve always erred on the side of continuity, and our takeaway has been, ‘Let’s see this group healthy.’ I think we’ve seen it enough. I want to be really, really clear: This is not going to be a summer of complacency. It’s time to get better.”
There are several ways to read this, some more dramatic than others. The juiciest, particularly after Griffin’s post-draft press conference? Brandon Ingram, who’s about to enter the final year of his contract, won’t be getting a lucrative extension—a.k.a. Brandon Ingram is a decent bet to get traded. For a team that’s spent the past three seasons ignoring the point guard position, this might be a little rash. (It’s no coincidence that in perhaps the best year of Ingram’s career, Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball were New Orleans’s backcourt.)
But a breakup can also benefit someone who, in my opinion, is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. Ingram is coming off an atrocious playoff series against the no. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder. But it’s also hard to envision a worse scenario: Ingram missed 12 of the regular season’s last 13 games with a knee injury, did not have Zion Williamson to draw any defensive attention, and was mauled by Lu Dort. That performance aside, he’s very good.
Despite a tendency to dine on exceedingly challenging field goal attempts—among the 185 players who logged at least 1,500 minutes last season, Ingram finished 181st in shot quality—and overdribble his way into a rut, this is a midrange technician of the highest order who doubles as one of his position’s most advanced playmakers. Ingram is fearsome enough to demand double-teams in isolation and tall enough to complete just about any pass out of the pick-and-roll. His fallaway jumper is art. His pace is exquisite.
There’s a calm grace to Ingram’s game that few high-usage scorers can claim, yet he’s also not someone who stands still without the ball. Whether flying off a dribble handoff or coming off a screen, Ingram was one of the most efficient players in the league last season, according to Synergy Sports. He’s willing to work a possession—come off multiple screens, give the ball up, get it back, (move, move, move) then attack when the defense cracks.
Still only 26—eight years younger than Paul George!—he remains an acquired taste, muddying his value on the trade market. Some general managers will only see red flags, knowing any trade essentially equals a long-term commitment to a big-budget player who’s won two playoff games in an eight-year career.
But Ingram is also someone who elevates his teammates and spent the past few years navigating serious spacing-related warts in New Orleans’s offense. In a different situation, with more room to operate beside a star who can consistently alleviate and embolden his robust skill set, Ingram’s third act may look something like Khris Middleton 2.0.
Ingram will have to taper his responsibilities (and expand his range) in order to win at the highest level, but that’s not an unmanageable request. In the right spot, there’s plenty of time for him to become a perennial All-Star. The fit in Philadelphia, between Embiid and Maxey, would need some getting used to. But it has the potential to unlock everything. Ditto for Sacramento, with De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. Ingram isn’t plug-and-play, but he is a star who can function in myriad ways, with a ceiling that hasn’t been reached. And if the Pelicans decide they don’t want to give him a max contract, their “trash” will be another team’s treasure.
Redick likes math. He’s a huge fan of 3s, spacing, and efficiency. But even if LeBron James returns, the Lakers are not currently built to solve the most basic equation. Last year, they finished 15th in offensive rating and 28th in 3-point rate. Put another way, opponents made 2.4 more 3s per game, a difference only the Bulls can look up at.
D’Angelo Russell set new franchise records in 3-point takes and makes, which is cool. Less cool is the fact that he routinely gets played off the floor in the playoffs and doesn’t really impact winning in any other tangible way. Russell also has an $18.7 million player option and may not be on the team next season. But let’s assume he’s back.
As a team in the tax, the Lakers have few avenues to improve from the outside. Does Redick just convince Anthony Davis to shoot more 3s and play more lineups that are offensive-minded? Does he fine Rui Hachimura $100 every time he pulls up from 18 feet? Is Austin Reaves, who made 37.3 percent of his pull-up 3s last year but only took 2.0 per game, bestowed with a blinking green light? Dalton Knecht can help; the incoming rookie made 39.7 percent of his 234 3-point attempts as a Tennessee senior. So can a healthy Gabe Vincent.
It’s probably not a coincidence that the Lakers’ most efficient regular five-man unit—Russell, Spencer Dinwiddie, Reaves, Hachimura, and Davis—also took a bunch of 3s. The big issue here is that L.A. still doesn’t have enough two-way players to ultimately make a shot-selection shift worthwhile.
L.A. does have several draft picks to trade—though perhaps not enough to enter any potential Trae Young or Darius Garland sweepstakes—and the taxpayer midlevel to spend, but this roster may need more than a few tweaks to resemble the type of group that lets Redick execute the vision he probably prefers.
DeRozan dribbles the ball during the game against the New York Knicks on April 14 at Madison Square Garden.
Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images
Say what you want about last week’s Alex Caruso trade. Optically, it was mortifying. Materially, the Bulls got back a 21-year-old with unteachable strengths (those passes) and improvable weaknesses (that jump shot). Compared to a draft pick or two, Josh Giddey is expensive but is also an actual player with real upside.
If Chicago is finally embarking on a rebuild, moving a 30-year-old role player for a 21-year-old starting point guard is objectively acceptable. In three years, it may even end up as a coup. But because we’re talking about the most stubbornly oblivious organization in the NBA, “if Chicago is finally embarking on a rebuild” is a humongous caveat. This summer presents an opportunity for them to change that reputation.
Starting over with Giddey, Coby White, Patrick Williams (if the price is right as a restricted free agent), Ayo Dosunmu, Dalen Terry, Julian Phillips, and whoever else makes sense on the ground floor of a tanktastic rebuild would be a good start.
Translation: Let DeMar DeRozan walk, trade Zach LaVine, shop Nikola Vucevic, please, for the love of all that’s holy, invest in 3-point shooters—they averaged a league-worst 7.3 fewer 3-point attempts than their opponent last season—and spend the upcoming season as a young, fast, and purposeful on-court embarrassment. Chicago owes a top-10 protected first-round pick to San Antonio in 2025. The Bulls should do whatever it takes to keep it. Whatever. It. Takes.
Here’s what Detroit’s new president of basketball operations, Trajan Langdon, said at his introductory press conference: “One thing we are looking for with the cap space we do have is bringing in contracts maybe from other teams and gathering assets as well.” In so many words: We are now a dumping ground. On that same day, Detroit’s owner, Tom Gores, mentioned the team’s need to have worthwhile contributions from incoming faces: “We have to have players who are active. It’s not good enough to be a free agent, come over and not play.”
These comments aren’t exactly mixed messaging, but reading them before free agency officially begins, it’s fair enough to assume Detroit will be more resourceful and vigilant than it has been. At the same time, if a perfect free agent comes along, they should absolutely not be bashful about a reasonable overspend.
And if there’s one unrestricted free agent who should be all over their radar, it’s Tyus Jones. Spending big money on an undersized backup point guard might not sound like the shrewdest move, especially for a team that already has Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey penciled in as its backcourt of the future. Jones is an exception, though. He’s an ideal table setter with big-game experience who knows how to coexist beside some of the best guards in the league. Two and three seasons ago, he was a terrific complement to Ja Morant and Desmond Bane, able to space the floor off the ball, run a tight pick-and-roll when those two needed a breather, and generally stabilize Memphis’s offense when Morant was unavailable.
This is the type of player the Pistons need. (Their previous regime knew it, too, which is why they traded for Monte Morris.) Jones is only 28 years old and can be a critical part of this young core’s development as the on-court teacher, leader, and selfless spark they’ve never had.
Picking up someone like Tim Hardaway Jr. or De’Andre Hunter and then getting a pick for the trouble also makes sense. But if Detroit wants to water the flowers already planted in its garden, it should take a serious look at Jones.
