After the October international break, the Opta supercomputer has updated its projected final Premier League table.

It is only seven matches into the campaign so much can still change, but the season is beginning to take shape. The supercomputer simulates thousands of seasons and takes the percentage each side finishes in each league position.

After a strong start under Enzo Maresca, Chelsea’s chances of finishing fourth have increased from 19.5% to 37.1%.

Newcastle are second favourites for fourth spot at 15.1% – down slightly from 17.5% at the start of the campaign – followed by Tottenham at 14% which is up slightly from 11.6% before a ball was kicked.

Aston Villa’s continued good form has seen their probability of finishing fourth go from 5.6% to 13.2%, with their most likely finish now fifth at 18.1%. Before the start of the season it was seventh or eighth, both at 11.1%.

Manchester United’s poor start is reflected in their chance of finishing fourth dropping from 12.9% to just 2.1%.