Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate Weakens As People Flee Toronto & Vancouver: BMO
Canadian real estate markets remain weak after rate cuts but are driven by weakness in just a few regions. That was the take in the latest research note from BMO, which found that most of the national weakness is due to people fleeing Toronto and Vancouver. Prices in these markets are so high that residents are fleeing to cities like Calgary, where sales remain robust and prices continue to rise.
Canadian Real Estate Has Young Adults & Immigrants Considering A Move
Canada tried to solve its labor shortage with rapid population growth, but it’s creating a bigger issue—labor is planning to leave. A new survey from Angus Reid shows that 1 in 4 Canadians are considering leaving their province due to sky-high home prices. Even worse, the trend is concentrated in younger adults, where 2 in 5 people are looking to move. Older households, more likely to have benefited from rising home prices, were a lot less likely to consider moving.
Canada Added 250k Unemployed People, Most In 5 Real Estate Markets
The Canadian economy isn’t losing jobs, but its unemployed population continues to surge. It’s a problem related almost exclusively to the population growth greatly outpacing the economy’s ability to create new jobs. As a result, unemployment has been concentrated in traditional immigration hubs. Most of the 250k unemployed people the economy added over the past year are located in just five cities.
Canadian Real Estate Inventory Is Rebuilding Very Rapidly: RBC
Canadian real estate has been scarce, especially in contrast to recent population growth. That’s changing, according to a new report from the country’s largest bank. RBC economists are observing rising inventories in major real estate markets, as a sudden surge of sellers meets a complete collapse of demand. This is about to get even more complicated as record new construction completes over the next few months. Most are owned by investors, who usually try to liquidate shortly after a building completes construction.
Canadian Mortgage Borrowers To Reduce Consumption Even After Rate Cuts: BoC
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is worried mortgage borrowers will have lower consumption long after interest rates are cut. In a new paper discussing the issue, they explain that higher interest rates don’t just divert income from payments, but also leave the balance higher for longer. That means less income to consume, slowing economic growth even further. It’s a known consequence of rate-driven credit growth, which allows households to borrow future economic activity to boost the current window.
