You knew it was going to happen eventually. Thursday Night Football has finally returned to its roots, presenting us with as ugly of a matchup as it gets in Week 7. The 3-3 Denver Broncos will take on the 2-4 New Orleans Saints. Let’s go to the tale of the tape (I guess).
OK, so that headline is misleading; I think Bo Nix will have a much, much better game than Spencer Rattler.
Of course, it’s not fair to compare the two, either. After all, Nix has started every game for his team this season, while Rattler was thrust into the starting role after Derek Carr went down. Not to mention, Rattler will be without both Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee — and he might be out for a while) tonight. As good as Alvin Kamara is as a weapon, it’s hard to expect a good game from a rookie QB making just his second start against a tough defense and an opposing head coach who is no doubt chomping at the bit to take on his former team.
So let’s focus on Nix.
The 12th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft has shown this season himself to be that rare “better for fantasy than reality” QB. He’s coming off his second consecutive 20-plus-point fantasy outing, and he’s doing it thanks to his legs. Nix already has three rushing touchdowns this season, and he rushed for a season-high 61 yards in Week 6. Expect that aspect of his game to continue in Week 7 against a stout Saints’ pass rush.
Of course, that pass rush hasn’t helped against opposing run games, exactly. Speaking of which …
The Saints lead the league in rush yards per carry against opposing rushers. Sure, that number has likely been inflated after what Sean Tucker and Bucky Irving just did against them, but the Saints have now allowed a running back to deliver a solid-to-great game in four straight weeks.
If there was ever a game for Javonte Williams to deliver a fantasy-friendly performance, it’s this one.
Williams was a prime Zero-RB target in 2024 with an ADP of 94.1. As the presumed starter of an offense breaking in a rookie QB, it wasn’t hard to envision Williams’ RB2 upside, especially since he’s been healthy.
But things haven’t worked out that way. Whether it’s been ceding work to Jaleel McLaughlin or the overall disappointing nature of the Broncos offense (they seem to always be trailing, even in games they’ve won), Williams has been an overall disappointment. But we just saw the unheralded Tucker completely destroy this Saints defense on the ground and through the air. It’s not so hard to believe Williams — who has been a surprising asset through the air, tied for fifth among RBs in catches this season — couldn’t do a facsimile of that performance. This might be one of the few game scripts in which Williams could deliver a solid fantasy day, and if he does, it should provide his managers with a sell-high (relatively) opportunity to opposing running-back-needy teams in bye-week season.
Let me preface this by saying, you buy into the Saints offense this week at your own risk. This game screams of Alvin Kamara carries (and Taysom Hill shenanigans, if he was healthy, but he’s doubtful to play in this game).
But we are talking about the tight end position here — many of us will take what we can get.
Johnson has been pretty consistent, if not boring, for the Saints the last two weeks. He has 11 targets over his last three games and has caught three passes in two straight (five in Week 5). The Broncos have a strong defense led by their secondary, but they’ll be without All-World corner Patrick Surtain II (concussion) for this game. Since Week 2, the Broncos have surrendered four-plus catches to the tight end position on four occasions, including a monster day from Brock Bowers (8-97-1) in Week 5.
With Rattler still learning the ropes and the Saints being down their two primary receivers, Johnson is a prime streaming option for fantasy football managers desperately seeking anything from their TE spot.
