MLB (0.75 Unit) Washington Nationals/San Diego Padres Over 7.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:10 PM CT on SDPA
This total is low because it’s Petco Park and Dylan Cease is starting, but don’t let those factors fool you. First of all, day games in Petco are far more suitable for scoring, and it will be warm with a solid breeze blowing out today. Plus, all games including at night have been going wild there lately, with this homestand seeing a 6-0 record over tonight’s total with 12.3 runs on average.
Additionally, Dylan Cease has been struggling for some time now, posting a 6.43 ERA across his past 8 starts. Washington also hits righthanders like Cease much better, and their offense has been hot lately too. The Padres have been scoring like crazy against solid pitching even with Fernando Tatis Jr out of the lineup, so I don’t expect anything to change and like the opportunity on this low number.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/Boston Red Sox Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on NESN
I’m going to keep attacking the totals in this series and taking advantage of the weather in the Northeast that’s boosting scoring. The heat and humidity there really helps the baseball jump off the bat, and that usually means runs in a small, hitter-friendly park like Fenway. It never hurts to have struggling pitchers take the mound either, which is what I see with tonight’s matchup.
Kutter Crawford for Boston was having an excellent start to the season, but the past month has been rough. The Red Sox righty has posted a 5.97 ERA his past 6 starts, and has a considerably higher ERA at home overall this season. And it looks like a bullpen game for Toronto, which should lead to runs as they’re 25th in bullpen ERA and 22nd in batting average allowed. The season series between these clubs is now 4-1 over this total with 10.6 runs on average, and a great situation for more runs exists here tonight.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2351-2163 ATS (+93.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
