MLB (0.5 Unit) Logan Gilbert Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+135; Odds via DraftKings): 8:40 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Gilbert is an absolute innings eater, and I think he shows it again tonight. All 4 of his June starts have seen him go over this innings prop, and he’s gone at least 6 full innings in his past 8 starts. Coincidentally, his last rough outing was at Target Field, but returning home should benefit him. T-Mobile Park is where he sports a 2.66 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and .185 opponent on-base average, so he’s set up well to cool the hot Twins bats. Minnesota will be due for regression off yesterday’s 13-run outburst, especially being on the road against a righty, so I think they’ll have to contend with Gilbert well into tonight’s game.
MLB (0.5 Unit) San Diego Padres/Boston Red Sox Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on AppleTV+
While the weather conditions might not be as ripe in Boston as they’ve been recently, I still have confidence that these pitchers and offenses will combine for plenty of scoring. It’s mostly about Boston being able to knock Randy Vasquez around, who has had a couple of good home starts but struggles on the road with a 6.85 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, and .385 opponent on-base average. But this Padres offense that has fueled a 9-2 over run even without Fernando Tatis Jr should not be ignored. Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta is always worse at home and has bad numbers against the Padres bats, so look for both teams to contribute in getting this over the total.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Detroit Tigers/LA Angels Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:38 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit
This total has been creeping up and with good reason in my opinion. With two very weak offenses squaring off here, movement on the total can only reflect just how awful the starting pitching will be. That’s certainly been the case with Kenta Maeda in road games, as he’s posted a ridiculous 9.90 ERA and .329 opponent on-base average away from home. But despite that, the Tigers are actually a road favorite here because of how bad Zach Plesac has looked in his first two starts. With perfect weather and the wind blowing out as usual at Angel Stadium, I’ll follow the money here and expect these pitchers to blow up tonight.
MLB (0.6 Unit) Oakland A’s/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 8.5 (-120; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on NBCS-CA
Oakland games are always going to come with a depressed total because of how feeble their offense usually is. But if they can’t get anything going at the plate tonight against Slade Cecconi, then they can’t be helped. Cecconi’s home/road splits are wild, with nothing but quality starts away from Chase Field. But at home he’s posted a 13.15 ERA, a .373 opponent on-base average, and allowed at least 6 runs to every opponent from a list of so-so offenses. The D’backs should give him some support today though against JP Sears, who always gets crushed by teams that are good against lefties. That’s what Arizona is, as they’re 3rd in scoring and batting average against lefties, so look for both pitchers to fuel an over on this lower number.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2357-2164 ATS (+95.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
