Proposed tariffs on Canadian products could impact visitation to and spending in the United States from that country, including to Las Vegas, the U.S. Travel Association said in a statement Monday.
The top five most visited states by Canadians — Florida, California, Nevada, New York, and Texas — could see declines in retail and hospitality revenue, as shopping is the top leisure activity for Canadian visitors, according to the trade group.
Canadians and Mexicans comprise the most international visitors to Las Vegas, according to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. An estimated 817,221 Canadians visited Las Vegas via Harry Reid International Airport in 2023, the latest year available, accounting for 50.6% of international visitation. Mexico brought 330,044 or 20.4%.
The Travel Association didn’t mention Mexico in its statement, as President Donald Trump has already paused a 25% tariff on that country. Later Monday, the president paused the tariffs on Canada. The heads of state of two of the U.S.’s leading trading partners quickly reciprocated.
Both Canada and Mexico have agreed to increase security on their borders to stop the flow of fentanyl in to the U.S., thus averting a trade war for now. The U.S. also imposed an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, but Chinese tourism to the U.S. totaled 1.1 million in 2023 and has been slow to recover since the pandemic. China has been the fourth biggest source of Asian tourists to the U.S. after India, South Korea, and Japan.
Prior to the pause, the Travel Association noted in its release that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urged citizens to spend domestically instead.
“Now is the time to choose Canada,” Trudeau said. “It might mean changing your summer vacation plans to explore the many national and provincial parks, historical sites, and tourist destinations our great country has to offer.”
Canada is the top source of international visitors to the United States with 20.4 million visits in 2024, generating $20.5 billion in spending and supporting 140,000 American jobs, according to the Travel Association, A 10% reduction in Canadian travel could mean two million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending, and 14,000 job losses.
Corey Padveen, a partner with t2 Marketing International, said he doesn’t see his fellow Canadians putting off going to the U.S. for patriotic reasons; instead, they’re more likely to avoid buying American products. When it comes to travel, however, the strength of the American dollar versus the Canadian dollar, due to the trade war talk over several months, has made travel to the U.S. more expensive.
“The bigger concern is less about tariffs and a trade war and more about the impact on the economy with the threats of tariffs and a trade war,” Padveen said. “The value of the Canadian dollar over the last few months compared to the U.S dollar has taken a pretty significant hit. That hasn’t affected existing travel plans, but the future. Right now, the Canadian dollar is trading about $1.43 to $1 U.S. You’re talking about a near 50% increase in the cost of your travel and in Vegas, designed for spending and wagering, a $500 for gambling play is a $750 budget right now.”
For those who haven’t booked yet, Padveen said that means more Canadians will go to Central and South America where the Canadian dollar has more value.
Oliver Lovat, CEO of the Denstone Group, said Canada as the largest international market for the U.S. means there would be some effect. History shows a strong U.S. dollar against other currencies is the greatest deterrent to international travel. As a Scottish native, Lovat said that also applies to Europe, where a trade war has been broached.
“When the dollar is strong, it makes it more expensive for other people to visit and makes it cheaper for Americans to go visit other countries,” Lovat said.