(Bloomberg) — Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda avoided giving a clear hint that he will raise interest rates at a December meeting during closely watched comments that weakened the yen.
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In his last major speech before the BOJ’s Dec. 18-19 meeting, Ueda said the timing of the central bank’s next policy adjustment will depend on the economy and prices, as he reiterated his data-dependent stance and kept his options open over when to next hike rates.
“The actual timing of the adjustments will continue to depend on developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions going forward,” Ueda told local business leaders in Nagoya, central Japan on Monday.
The yen weakened as much as 0.5% to 155.14 against the dollar and benchmark bond yields edged down as Ueda’s comments proved less hawkish than some market participants had expected. Overnight-indexed swaps are continuing to price in about a 54% chance of a rate hike in December.
After the market gyrations that followed the BOJ’s rate hike in July, the central bank has acknowledged the need to enhance its communications. That has generated speculation that Ueda will more clearly telegraph the bank’s intentions ahead of its next move.
“There was speculation before Ueda spoke that he would make hawkish comments as the yen had weakened to the upper 150 range,” said Juntaro Morimoto, a senior currency analyst at Sony Financial Group Inc. “If he doesn’t make any comments that indicate a move toward an additional rate hike at the December meeting, there’s a risk that the yen will be sold off further.”
Ueda indicated that the BOJ is on a path toward higher rates by sticking his standard line on the subject. He repeated his stance that if the BOJ’s outlook for economic activity and prices are realized, the bank will continue to raise its policy rate.
“Ueda was more cautious than expected,” said Masamichi Adachi, chief Japan economist at UBS Securities and a former BOJ official. “The BOJ probably thought the next meeting is a month away and it’s too early to come to any decision now. But that doesn’t mean no rate hike in December. Ueda is monitoring various risks while looking for the right timing.”
The governor said the bank needs to carefully watch various risks including the US economy and their likely impact, while also pointing out that it’s more likely the US will achieve a soft landing given recent positive data.
