Policymakers in Beijing are watching closely for clues on how the coming Donald Trump administration will roll out its China policy in its first six months or so, a prominent China expert in the US said on Tuesday.

That would make 2025 crucial for both Beijing and Washington to manage their tensions and avoid a military confrontation over Taiwan, considered the most dangerous flashpoint between the two nuclear powers.

“The overall take I have is that we are very likely to see the worst and the most dangerous deterioration in the coming years, especially the first year,” said Minxin Pei, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College in California.

Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.

Minxin Pei is a political scientist affiliated with Claremont McKenna College in California. Photo: Winson Wong alt=Minxin Pei is a political scientist affiliated with Claremont McKenna College in California. Photo: Winson Wong>

“The question is how low the relationship between the two countries can sink and whether tensions will spiral out of control and trigger a direct military confrontation,” said Pei.

If the two sides could manage their tensions in the first year, he added, particularly on Taiwan, “we should all celebrate”.

The assessment by Pei, an expert on Chinese governance, comes as policymakers in Beijing prepare with a mix of caution and anxiety for what is expected to be a harsh reset of the two countries’ already fraught relations.

Since the US elections in early November, there have been few clear signs as to the precise path the Trump administration will take in its China policy.

The former and future president has filled his cabinet with a mix of hawkish voices and those harbouring close ties to Beijing.

They include Marco Rubio, a US senator from Florida sanctioned by Beijing, selected to be US secretary of state, and Mike Waltz, a US congressman also from Florida critical of many of Beijing’s policies, chosen as national security adviser.

Trump further named Peter Navarro, widely regarded as be the mastermind behind America’s trade war with China who has been sanctioned by Beijing since 2021, as senior counsellor for trade and manufacturing.

The president-elect has vowed from his first day in office to impose additional 10 per cent tariffs on China, citing Beijing’s role in the illicit drug trade.

Yet throughout his 2024 election campaign, Trump forged a close relationship with billionaire Elon Musk, the SpaceX founder and Tesla CEO who has extensive business ties in China and with some of Beijing’s most senior officials.

Last week, Trump surprised many by announcing his nomination of businessman and former US senator David Perdue as ambassador to China.

While Perdue has voiced tough views on China, he also possesses decades of experience doing business with the country as an executive for Reebok and Dollar General, both of which he led as CEO.

Even though Trump speaks very little about Taiwan, the self-ruled island remains a dangerous flashpoint between the rival superpowers, Pei said, because his hawkish nominees were likely to “test” Beijing’s boundaries.

“The level of diplomatic exchange between China and the US is unlikely to function well with the hawks in charge,” explained Pei. “But Musk has a direct line to Trump’s ears, so he can … probably give Trump some less hawkish advice.”

Pei added that Beijing would like to hear directly from Trump whether he would adhere to the one-China policy and see what his nominees to lead the State and Defence departments have to say about Taiwan during their Senate confirmation hearings.

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary.

Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.

The guided-missile destroyer USS Higgins conducts a routine transit through the Taiwan Strait on September 20, 2024. Washington is committed to supplying Taiwan with weapons. Photo: US Navy alt=The guided-missile destroyer USS Higgins conducts a routine transit through the Taiwan Strait on September 20, 2024. Washington is committed to supplying Taiwan with weapons. Photo: US Navy>

In addition, Beijing would be “eager” to establish contact with the Trump administration after US Inauguration Day, January 20, Pei believed, particularly holding a meeting with Waltz.

“If such a meeting takes place in the first three to six months, I think we should breathe some sigh of relief,” he said.

“[Chinese President] Xi [Jinping] and Trump will not have a chance to meet until the fall, so if things do not get out of control before the fall, then that is a good sign.”

As Trump’s inauguration looms, Beijing has signalled its readiness to deal with potential challenges from the US.

Earlier this month, a day after the Joe Biden administration unveiled new restrictions on selling China chip technology, Beijing responded by blocking sales to the US of gallium, germanium and antimony.

The critical minerals are essential to a range of civilian and military uses, from semiconductor manufacturing to advanced weaponry.

On Monday, the ruling Communist Party‘s Politburo, its major decision-making body, said in a statement that a “moderately loose” monetary policy would be adopted to expand domestic demand, the first time such a phrase has been used since 2009.

By attempting to shore up its domestic economy, Beijing seeks to bolster its position vis-a-vis Washington, Pei said.

“China is in a weakened position, mostly because their economy is stuck … and that would not give them a lot of bargaining power,” the professor explained.

While it is widely expected that the US-China trade war will escalate after Trump takes office, Pei called hopes for a deal between the two sides optimistic and believed the worst scenario would be if tensions escalated beyond control.

For Beijing, a “black-swan scenario” could be an agreement reached between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on the Ukraine war, Pei said.

During his campaign, Trump boasted about his friendship with the long-time Russian leader, claiming he could end the nearly three-year armed conflict “within 24 hours”.

Following his recent meeting in Paris with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump on social media called for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine.

But Trump in an interview with NBC on the same day also suggested he would be open to reducing military aid to the war-torn country.

Pei said Trump could end US sanctions against Russia for a potential deal with Putin and that would create a “huge headache” for China.

This was so “because what Xi will be facing will be two challenges” in such a scenario. “One is that the US will shift attention to China, but at the same time … Putin would move closer to the US.”

In that case, Pei said, “tensions between the US and China could come via Moscow”.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP’s Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

Copyright (c) 2024. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.