There is no denying Victor Wembanyama has exceeded expectations as an NBA phenom. But how good has he been? Is he already a top-10 player in the league in only his second season?
As the Spurs star gets ready to play in his 100th NBA game on Friday — and turn 21 on Saturday! — our staff puts his early career into perspective and explores his ultimate ceiling.
Vincent Goodwill: 100. What hasn’t he done? What can’t he do? Leap tall buildings in a single bound? Block shots, start a fast break and finish it before you can inhale/exhale? He’s done all of that and hasn’t had to commandeer the Spurs’ offense. Last year, nobody knew how to give him the ball, or didn’t want to, and he still dominated. This year, more of the same. Okay, back-to-the-basket game, mid-post game, he’s working on it. But he’s not even a season and a half in.
Tom Haberstroh: 99. Like the greats, he’s exceeded great expectations. At 7-foot-5 — don’t give me that 7-foot-3 nonsense — Wemby warps the game in ways we’ve never seen at his age. If he’s this good before his 21st birthday, I shudder to think what he’ll be ahead of his 31st birthday. A playoff visit with this roster will bump this up to a 100.
Morten Stig Jensen: 95. My interpretation of 100 is Wilt/Kareem/MJ territory, so Wemby falls just short, in some part due to the fact that his first 30 or so games were significantly under par for how he’s played since — and yes, that was indeed San Antonio’s fault, but it still happened. He’s got plenty of areas to further improve upon, such as lowering turnovers, optimizing his playmaking, and getting his shot-selection more under control, which makes him all that more ridiculous of a player. 95 for a guy who’s going to see exponential improvements over the next five seasons is like starting a video game with all cheats toggled on.
Ben Rohrbach: 100. I’m not sure we could have reasonably expected anything other than what Wembanyama has done, which is establish himself as a bona fide candidate for All-NBA and Defensive Player of the Year in his sophomore season. Averaging a 26-10-4, plus a handful of blocks and steals per game, on 48/36/88 shooting splits for a team that is vying for a playoff spot in the Western Conference, all at the age of 21, is just insane.
Jensen: Remember in February last season when he was one assist short of the rare 5×5 line? Media outlets worldwide still wrote about how the just-turned 20-year-old nearly got it, praised him for the valiant effort, and then the dude went out and ACTUALLY DID IT just 24 hours later. That’s the stuff of legends right there. I’m just waiting for the inevitable Player of the Week award, which he’s earned three times straight.
Haberstroh: If Big Vic were a team, he’d rank 14th in blocks among all teams in the last 10 games. Better than the average team. By himself. And it’s not just the blocks. If it holds, he’d become the first player to average at least three blocks and three 3-pointers for the season — a fact we pointed out on The Big Number last month. Since that show taping, he’s somehow raised the bar, averaging a preposterous, dare I say alien-like 5.3 blocks and 4.4 3-pointers. Y’all, he turns 21 on Saturday.
Rohrbach: It is not just that Wembanyama is the leading candidate for DPOY. He is the best defensive player in the league by a wide margin. The numbers back it up. His length changes the shape of the floor. We can reasonably assume he will submit the greatest defensive season ever at some point in the near future, and then keep topping it for the remainder of the decade.
Goodwill: We’re in a league where Anthony Davis exists, and Rudy Gobert keeps permanent residence of the DPOY award, and Bam Adebayo might be the most versatile defender on Earth and yet we all acknowledge he’s the guy. The blocks, the steals, the unattempted shots because he’s lurking. Poor Evan Mobley and Chet Holmgren, they would have the market cornered for skinny bigs if this alien didn’t come along.
Rohrbach: True. In a world where Rudy Gobert has made four All-NBA rosters, we finally have an answer to the question: What if that dude were also awesome at offense? He wouldn’t just be one of the 15 most impactful players in the league. He would be top-10, no question about it.
Goodwill: True. We’re no longer in a world where we can assume Steph, KD and LeBron are automatically installed in the top 10. Perhaps they live on the back end, but the transition is here, at least in terms of efficiency and consistency. Big Slim might be a top-5 player, knocking on the Jokić/SGA/Luka door because he affects the game in so many profound ways. Just go look at that Christmas game at MSG. I don’t care the Spurs lost, he was the best player on the floor.
Haberstroh: True. Real talk, he’s already a top-5 player. By some advanced metrics, like Estimated Plus-Minus, he’s been a top-3 player this season. If Wemby enjoyed the luxury of the supporting casts of OKC, Boston, Milwaukee or Denver, he’d be a legit MVP candidate. Alas, the second-most points on the Spurs roster belongs to Julian Champagnie.
Jensen: True. He’s bridged the gap between his offense and defense to a point where it’s impossible to argue against him for a top-10 spot. If you’re one of the best, if not the best, defender in the NBA, and you’re popping 25 efficient points per game, you’re automatically in the conversation. Add 10 rebounds and damn-near four assists per game, while lifting your otherwise pedestrian team to a plus-.500 record in the Western Conference, and it becomes indisputable.
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Haberstroh: He’ll play at an MVP level. Whether the Spurs front office supports him with enough winning players is another story. Individually, I expect a half-dozen 5×5 games, millions of new fans and hopefully a lower turnover rate. I hesitate to put a lid on the guy, but at this rate, he’ll snatch the torch from LeBron and Steph as the face of the league before those next 100 games are through.
Rohrbach: The playoffs. As the current 10th seed in the Western Conference, Wembanyama’s Spurs have some work to do to guarantee themselves a playoff spot, but he is that work. If the Wembanyama we saw in the Olympics — or the Wembanyama we have seen in recent weeks — is what we will get in the play-in tournament, the Spurs will be a nightmare in any one-game scenario, and I like my chances with the 7-foot-5 dude who can do everything.
Jensen: The first 100 games represented The Introduction. The next 100 games will represent The Fear. Not for him, but for everyone else. The Spurs are loaded with draft picks, have tradeable contracts, and should make every semi-older contender feel a deep breath in the back of their neck. Obviously, Wembanyama will be the main cog of that Spurs team, and the franchise will go as far as he does. Given that Wembanyama’s potential is basically limitless, teams better win now while they still can.
Goodwill: Who knows how the numbers will look, but the team should look markedly better in the next year and a half. Again, the transition has happened at the top — Oklahoma City, Houston, Memphis — while the teams with the graybeards are scrambling for scraps. Wembanyama’s growth will be measured by the Spurs knowing exactly what to put around him, so he doesn’t have to work so hard to get his numbers. It’s more on the team than the player, these next 100.
Goodwill: He can do anything, be anything — he can measure up to where Hakeem and Duncan sit on these ridiculous but sometimes fun GOAT lists. He’ll own the defensive player of the year awards with reasonable health. One would assume a couple MVPs are in play. Who knows how long he’ll dominate but he will dominate in this league full of parity. He’ll have his ultimate moments but with the way the league is set up, it’s not designed to last very long.
Haberstroh: The GOAT. I’m not predicting he’ll pass Mike and LeBron and get there. I just don’t know how you look at his age, his length, his durability, his motor, his skill-set and not see his potential as being higher than anyone who has ever picked up a basketball. If he plays 86 percent of his teams’ games like he has up to this point, he has a good chance of sitting atop the mountain.
Jensen: The Kareem comparison is one I’ve liked for a while, even if their playing styles differ significantly. The overall imprint on a game is similar, only with Wembanyama being able to stretch the floor, and thus incorporate himself into the new age NBA. That’s the individual perspective, however. The greats are always evaluated on winning, and we’re seeing a player here who could win multiple championships, multiple MVPs, and lock down Defensive Player of the Year for a decade. We can’t shy away from it: His ultimate ceiling is GOAT territory.
Rohrbach: MVP. Champion. Multiple times at both. All-timer. GOAT? He has no ceiling.
