In one of the most divisive U.S. elections in recent memory, Americans head to the polls in a presidential race with ripple effects worldwide, including in Canada.
Unlike Canadians, Americans vote directly for their president, this year choosing between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump or a third-party candidate.
The candidates spent the last days of the campaign giving their final pitches to voters in battleground states. Trump hosted rallies in Raleigh, N.C., Reading and Pittsburgh, Pa., on Monday, before heading to Grand Rapids, Mich., for his final campaign event. Harris also spent election eve in Pennsylvania, hosting campaign events in Allentown, Pittsburgh and finally, Philadelphia to close out the night.
The Associated Press called North Carolina for Donald Trump just after 11 p.m. ET Tuesday, cementing the former president’s first swing state win in the 2024 race. In the early hours of Wednesday, Trump maintained a strong lead, clinching 230 electoral votes to Harris’ 210.
Canada does not stand to benefit from another Donald Trump term in the Oval Office if the former U.S. president is re-elected against Kamala Harris for a “myriad of reasons,” ranging from economy, foreign policy and immigration to climate change, according to multiple international relations and political science experts.
“If Trump wins, the consequences will be potentially seismic and not just for Canada but globally. It is not just the tariffs that he says he will impose of U.S. trading partners—10-20 percent—and China—60 percent or higher. If we are not exempt from those tariffs, it would likely throw the Canadian economy into a recession,” Fen Hampson, a co-chair on the Expert Group on Canada-U.S. relations at The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, told Yahoo News Canada.
The U.S. uses the electoral college voting system. The electoral college can lead to several scenarios.
First, a candidate can win the electoral college while losing the popular vote and still become president, as happened in 2000 with George W. Bush and in 2016 with Donald Trump.
Second, the system allows for the possibility that neither candidate wins a majority of electoral votes. If there is a 269-269 tie, a “contingent election” is held. In this case, members of the new House of Representatives would choose the next president in January.
A Leger poll revealed that 64 per cent of Canadians would choose Harris over Trump if they had the opportunity to vote in the 2024 U.S. election.
This preference reflects Canadians’ belief that Harris is better equipped to address critical issues such as climate change, trade relations, immigration, and the economy.
The term historic has been frequently used to describe the U.S. election this year, and here’s why.
Harris could become the first woman U.S. President and the first President of South Asian descent, while Trump could be only the second to win non-consecutive terms and the first elected after a criminal conviction.
Another historic first if Harris wins, Doug Emhoff could become the country’s first “First Gentleman” and the first Jewish spouse of a president, according to a report published by ABC News.
This year’s U.S. election could also result in several historic firsts in the Senate and House of Representatives, particularly in areas of equality and 2SLGBTQ+ rights.
The divisive U.S. election race has given the spotlight to two candidates on opposite ends of the spectrum, whose political views could impact the future of Canada.
Experts speaking to Yahoo Canada expect another Trump presidency to spark “potentially seismic” shifts in the relationship between the countries, impacting the collective social fabric of Canada’s policy, as well as potentially sparking a recession.
A potential Harris presidency isn’t expected to inspire the same tumult, though experts believe it won’t be a “free ride,” with pushback in Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) negotiations, as well as an urgency to improve defence spending.
A Harris win could also put pressure on Canada’s Liberals to freshen their image, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s popularity sinks.
Canada’s shared history and 8,891-kilometre border with the U.S. won’t shield it from the election’s impact. While both candidates have proposed protectionist policies, experts warn that if the Republican leader wins, relations between the neighbouring countries could become significantly more challenging.
