5 things I care about

How the Chiefs win the AFC West

In a way, it’s hard to muster the energy to care about a ninth-straight AFC West title for the Kansas City Chiefs. We all knew it was going to happen from well before the first kickoff of the season; the organization itself has its sights set on much higher prizes; the list goes on and on why this isn’t that big of a deal.

Yet, it was the way this Chiefs team won the division this year against an AFC West rival that felt noteworthy. The 2024 Chiefs sealed it in a way that was all too fitting for this version of the team.

It all came down to a final drive that would begin with 4:35 left on the clock and end with no time remaining. Like so many teams before them, the Chargers gave Patrick Mahomes just enough of a chance to win. Not only was it all they needed — “just enough” was quite literally all it took.

The game-winning drive featured a Mahomes scramble on 2nd-and-8 that went for 10 yards after a mistake by the Chargers’ edge rushers on the contain. Five straight runs grinded down the clock to the two-minute warning. Mahomes then took the snap on 3rd-and-7, booted to the right and made the slightest of movements to cause Daiyan Henley to miss the tackle in space before unfurling a pass just past the first down marker to Travis Kelce. The future Hall of Fame tight end snagged the pass on his knees and never got up. He did just enough.

As if they couldn’t lean into the bit any further, Matthew Wright’s game-winning 31-yard field goal doinked off the post before falling in to secure the division.

It does not get more “just enough” than that.

There are no stat-stuffing performers from the Chiefs offense in this game. If you were waiting on a Chiefs player to secure your fantasy football playoff ticket with a monster night as an underdog, you came up disappointed.

If that’s what you were waiting for, I don’t know if you’ve been paying attention to the 2024 Chiefs.

This team does just enough to win. It’s rarely exciting, and it almost never comes with the statistical success we associate with dominant teams. Yet, there’s something to be said about the belief, confidence and demeanor of a championship-level team. The Chiefs know they can do it by the skin of their teeth because they’ve done it so often in bigger moments than a Week 14 Sunday Night Football matchup over the years. There’s built-in equity as a winner; they cash that in at every turn.

Will all of this be enough to win in January and into February? That is another conversation entirely. Just as valid a question is whether there’s another version of this team when the games get bigger. All those queries will be answered in time. For now, Week 14 reminded us the 2024 regular season Chiefs team is the same operation they’ve shown to be since the beginning of the season. It’s just enough to win and keep the dominance of their division right on schedule.

Puka Nacua’s rise to the top

Are there five wide receivers in the NFL playing better football than Puka Nacua right now? Perhaps that’s overly reactionary to what we just watched in Week 14 but this was a take I was inching toward prior to kickoff. All the evidence shows a player who has, without question, made the leap.

That may sound strange considering Nacua was outrageously productive as a rookie. However, it just feels different this year and it comes in some critical areas.

Nacua told me in a conversation in February that his hands were the area of his game that needed the most improvement. He cited his high drop numbers and some mistakes at the catch point in tight coverage as the portions he looked to clean up in the offseason. Mission accomplished. Nacua had a “catch of the year” candidate along the sideline in the first half of this game and he may have outdone it early in the third quarter.

In addition to being a more reliable catcher of the football and ball-winner in tight coverage, Nacua has expanded his route tree.

As a rookie, Nacua was a menace on routes over the middle. The vast majority of his big plays came on digs, slants, posts and crossers. This season, we’re seeing him dominate on out-breakers.

The fact that Nacua has been a threat along the sideline, in tight coverage and on out-breaking routes makes his plays off motion a nightmare to defend. No player has a mastery of leverage more than the Rams’ wideout.

Matthew Stafford had his struggles under pressure this season and health issues have permeated this entire unit. As we often see across the NFL, an elite pass-catcher can answer all that ails a scoring unit. So much of the evidence points toward Nacua as belonging to that tier of wideouts. I’m just about ready to push him into that group with the likes of Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, etc.

As he continues to rise up the ranks of NFL receivers, Nacua remains a singularly deployed player. No other WR1 approaches the game with the same rugged tenacity or is moved around to exploit matchups like Puka Nacua is.

The Rams have games against the 49ers, Jets, Cardinals and Seahawks the rest of the way. They aren’t a lock for the postseason and those division games will be of the utmost importance. With Nacua as the engine of the offense playing at this level, it’s hard to count them out.

Josh Allen makes history

No NFL player has ever thrown for three touchdowns and scored three times on the ground in a single game before Josh Allen did it in Week 14. As you might expect, his 51.88 fantasy points in Yahoo standard scoring are the most we’ve ever seen.

It’s a shame it came in a loss where his defense was filleted by the opposing quarterback and his coach mismanaged the end of the game. Alas, it was still as dynamic a performance as you can ask of a quarterback.

Week 14 showed us everything that makes Josh Allen, as Sean McVay called him, an alien.

Allen was electric in the quick passing game, going 10 of 13 for 154 yards and his three passing touchdowns came on throws under 2.5 seconds. Remember the volatile vertical passer of the first few years of Allen’s career? Games like this make Allen’s early days in the NFL seem like something between a distant memory and a tall tale. Allen’s developed efficiency doesn’t make him any less dangerous down the field. He fit multiple tight window throws into Amari Cooper on go routes down the sideline and launched deep fades to both Khalil Shakir and Mack Hollins. No quarterback is more dangerous as a downfield passer when he’s on the same page with his weapons. Allen is as complete a passer as there is in the NFL this year.

It doesn’t stop there. Allen’s rushing ability is a true trump card. Allen scored three times and picked up three first downs as a runner. He’s reached Eagles-level efficiency as a short-yardage threat and is one of the most dangerous scramblers in the sport. Even when it’s perfectly covered on the back end, Allen can gain 74 yards on four scrambles, as he did in Week 14.

Rarely does a quarterback lose and gain steam as an MVP candidate. Perhaps the idea is completely nonsensical, not that the way the voters and big media have treated the award of late is all that logical, to begin with — a discussion for another time. Still, when I watched Josh Allen in Week 14, I struggled to think of another player who means more to his team in 2024.

Vikings’ passing game erupts

Week 14 was a reminder of the upside of Minnesota’s passing offense. When the Vikings can activate both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, they can drop a hammer on anyone.

Jefferson had not had a spike week in quite some time. Sometimes, the analysis is as simple as an elite player playing at an elite level just being “due.” The bill came up in Week 14 for Jefferson.

The Falcons only had top corner A.J. Terrell cover Jefferson on 56% of his route, per Next Gen Stats. They elected to go heavy zone coverage and try to cloud Jeffeson to account for him on intermediate routes. That did not work. Jefferson routinely split his two coverage players and was wide open in the intermediate and deep areas.

With Jefferson drawing that attention, Jordan Addison was left in single coverage throughout the day. Addison shredded the Falcons’ secondary players to the tune of 133 yards and a pair of scores on 12 targets. The vast majority of his production (127 and both touchdowns) came when pressed, per Next Gen Stats. It was the second-most yards any receiver gained against a pre-snap press alignment all season. I was incredibly impressed with Addison’s work off the line and at the break-point of routes.

Jefferson and Addison accounted for over 67% of Sam Darnold’s targets. Games like this, where Addison can rip through single-coverage on downfield routes, are the picture-perfect example of why the Vikings drafted the USC product in Round 1.

More challenging defenses will be capable of forcing Darnold into mistakes. There will be several of those units on the schedule when Minnesota makes the postseason. Week 14 was a nice reminder that when Darnold is protected, the wideouts are working in tandem for explosive plays and T.J. Hockenson is moving the chains on critical downs, this offense can hang the points they’ll need to win a playoff game.

Russell Wilson has a solid day without George Pickens

I’ll admit, I was skeptical that the Steelers passing game would operate as smoothly as it did in Week 14 without George Pickens. The mercurial wideout is without question the best pass-catcher on the team and the potency of their offense has come from him making plays on vertical routes via Russell Wilson moonballs.

Wilson made it work, and the offense was adjusted without Pickens. Even better, Wilson did it in ways we rarely see from the 2024 Steelers passing game.

Wilson’s two touchdowns came on throws over the middle. He has rarely worked that area consistently, but his touchdown to Freiermuth was precisely the type of play I’ve long wanted to see him make more often.

We also saw Wilson get the ball out faster and play distributor in a fashion we rarely get from the long-time passer. His 2.64-second time to throw was his fastest of the season. That’s not exactly getting the ball out with intense speed, but it’s notable for Wilson. No pass-catcher caught more than three balls in this game, as Wilson played point guard for Pittsburgh. None of the depth receivers are true needle-movers beyond Pickens, so the fact that Wilson just worked the ball to open areas is a good sign he has a grasp on the offense.

The Steelers are the third seed in the AFC and seeing their offense carry the day without their best pass-catchers lends credence to their status as a contender. For those looking to play Wilson in fantasy down the stretch and chase some of his ceiling outings, a prove-it game without Pickens strengthens his outlook once the dynamic receiver returns.

5 things I don’t care about

Chargers ceiling without Ladd McConkey

You have to give Justin Herbert a ton of credit. When he took a massive hit late in the first half, I thought his night was over and the Chiefs would cruise past a badly bruised Chargers offense.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Herbert took the field shortly after the hit and proceeded to offer some of his most efficient play possible under the circumstances in the second half. Herbert completed 11 of 12 passes in quarters three and four, a higher rate than any passer in any second half of Week 14. He wasn’t just dinking and dunking down the field, either. Herbert’s 8.64 adjusted net yards per attempt shows the efficiency of the aerial attack while pushing the ball down the field for over 10 air yards per attempt.

Herbert showed fight in a physical football game that required near-flawless execution to win. You don’t beat the Chiefs with anything but your best. And it’s just clear at this point that without a fully healthy Ladd McConkey, the Chargers don’t have the same ceiling on offense. If you think that’s an embellishment of the rookie’s ability, check where he ranks among top-level receivers this year in per-route efficiency:

He’s been that good.

Herbert didn’t throw an incompletion against zone coverage in the second half, per Next Gen Stats. This was the lowest rate of man coverage the Chiefs have played this season. They knew that a heavy dose of zone coverage with a bunch of wideouts who don’t quickly separate would stifle an offense that didn’t have their difference-maker. It worked in the first half. Herbert just got them in the second.

He kept the faith in Quentin Johnston on downfield targets. He worked the backside concepts to Josh Palmer after buying time in the pocket. He even pushed the ball down the field to Stone Smartt on cleverly designed play-action shot plays. Herbert made the best out of what was available.

That’s what elite quarterbacks do. Herbert belongs in that group. They give their teams a chance to win even when they’re short-handed. Herbert did that for the Chargers but that lack of a ceiling was always going to be a damning factor against an opponent like the Chiefs. And so it was.

The Chargers will be a better team, perhaps even one that can swing a playoff win, with McConkey leading the way in Herbert’s receiver room. Even better, imagine what this unit looks like with an offseason to reload on critical positions around this budding connection. That’s where the fun will really begin for a Jim Harbaugh operation that’s already well ahead of schedule.

The Cardinals contention

After dropping two games to the Seattle Seahawks, it’s a long shot that we’ll see the Arizona Cardinals win the NFC West. Just a few weeks ago, they had a lead on everyone. That’s evaporated at the hands of a rival who brings out the worst in Arizona.

The way Seattle plays defense as a rigid run-stop unit that crowds the middle of the field in the passing game takes away the best part of their offense. While the Cardinals’ defense has emerged as a solid unit in the back half of the year, scoring units like the Seahawks that present mismatches in man coverage can pick them apart down the field. From very early in the game, those holes were apparent, and Arizona looked like a unit that was not quite ready for contention.

As hard as it is to hear this if you’re invested in the Cardinals in any way — especially considering how weak this division has appeared in the wake of the 49ers falloff — that’s perfectly fine.

Remember where this Cardinals franchise was less than two years ago. Few operations were more listless and lost at sea. In Jonathan Gannon’s second season as the head coach, they’ve been in the thick of their division race. That’s progress.

The Cardinals have been in most of their games and have an identity on both sides of the ball. But they have questions to answer across the board. Is Kyler Murray a guy we win with or because of? How do we get the best out of Marvin Harrison Jr.? Do we have more than one blue-chip player on defense and how many more can we acquire?

Those are real issues that they’ll combat and ponder but this season is still a rousing success relative to expectations.

The Cardinals have some games down the stretch that will set up a strong finish. They get New England and Carolina before wrapping up with two division games against Los Angeles and San Francisco. Almost no matter how those next four games go, the Cardinals have shown me enough to be willing to invest in this ecosystem in 2025.

Hope in the 49ers backfield

I was wrong to get my hopes up that we had something in Isaac Guerendo. Nothing else has gone right for the 2024 49ers, so why should Guerendo, as the late-season waiver-wire league winner, work?

The 49ers rookie running back was on a tear before a foot injury removed him from the action. Guerendo touched the ball 17 times for 78 yards from scrimmage with a pair of touchdowns. He was able to pop some big runs and was even targeted on 13% of his routes. The perimeter zone runs where he’s shined as a rookie hit every which way on Sunday.

Guerendo led the backfield in snaps by a significant margin, got two goal-line rushes and was active in the passing game. You can’t ask for any better from a waiver replacement running back.

Of course, it came crashing at the end. In the postgame presser, instead of talking about a dominant win or surprising offensive contributors, Kyle Shanahan was sharing news of an upcoming MRI for his rookie running back and shooting down made-up trade rumors.

Go figure, it’s just that kind of year for the 49ers. I should have known better than to get my hopes up.

Brian Thomas Jr.’s quarterback

Brian Thomas Jr. continued his excellent rookie season with an 86-yard day that helped launch his team to a Week 14 win. Thomas has out-produced several wideouts drafted ahead of him despite some of the dysfunction on Jacksonville’s offense.

Mac Jones isn’t a perfect quarterback by any means, but he’s understood the assignment over the last two weeks: get the ball to the team’s best player — his words, not mine:

At times this year, Thomas has not been a funnel target. We can chalk up some of that to minor inconsistencies in his game when facing zone coverage. However, the Jacksonville coaching staff hasn’t done enough to ensure he’s the first read on plays in the intermediate area of the field when they see man-to-man looks.

It looked like this week was about to be more of the same. Thomas had just two targets and zero catches in the first half with no looks going his way in the second quarter. Jones got him the ball relentlessly in the second half with 10 targets the rest of the way.

Thomas now has a 30.1% target share over the last two games. He was below 20% in Weeks 1 to 12. It shouldn’t take removing players like Gabe Davis from the equation to get him there, but his absence coincides with this bump. If Thomas is going to get that type of target share, it doesn’t matter who is starting at quarterback. Talent will win out and Thomas will be able to get to a decent floor game on a weekly basis.

How many games Kirk Cousins has left

Kirk Cousins is done as the Falcons starter. It doesn’t matter when the team makes the decision; the games have made it apparent.

A loss and a few turnovers were predictable results for Cousins in his revenge game based on how he has played this season. Cousins has struggled mightily against zone coverage with Atlanta, and that’s what Brian Flores’ defense specializes in.

Cousins threw a pair of picks to the Vikings, as his arm strength and placement downfield continue to be significant issues. It would be one thing if pressure was the source of Cousins’ mistakes. Every passer gets worse under duress, and it would make sense if an older quarterback who can’t move after coming off an Achilles tear were compromised. That isn’t the lone reason Cousins continues to turn the ball over. Four of his picks since Week 10 have come from a clean pocket.

At least from a purely selfish fantasy perspective, Cousins was able to get the ball to the playmakers. He accumulated 344 passing yards and three wide receivers had productive outings. But his lack of zip downfield and the mourning turnovers have put the Falcons on the outside looking in of the playoffs. They should be cruising to an NFC South win after beating Tampa Bay twice this year.

Cousins’ play is the No. 1 reason they’ve lost that spot.

The Falcons will continue to get questions about Cousins’ job security. With how he’s playing and Michael Penix Jr. sitting on the bench, it’s a natural question. At this stage, if Penix doesn’t start a game this year, it’ll be a huge upset. And if the Falcons never find their way to putting Penix on the field, it’ll raise major questions about their long-term plans for the position.