Two days out from the first round of the NHL Draft, and five before the opening of free agency, one thing is very clear about the Toronto Maple Leafs.
They’ve been extremely busy behind the scenes these past seven weeks since their season ended, pursuing roster improvements at basically every position and in every way possible.
Everyone you chat with in NHL circles has had a conversation with Leafs GM Brad Treliving or someone in the front office, including other teams and agents of all the top free agents.
With the Leafs seemingly in on everyone and everything, it is a bit tricky to parse where exactly they’ll land in terms of additions this offseason. But here’s what we’re hearing as the league’s silly season ramps up this week in Las Vegas.
1. The Leafs were runners-up for Flames netminder Jacob Markstrom last week, losing out to the New Jersey Devils despite having what some might consider a better package of assets on the table. At the very least, they were offering something comparable in a very real bid for the 34-year-old.
In that offer was Toronto’s first-round pick for the coming draft, which shows just how seriously Treliving was pursuing the upgrade in net. (Making trades with the Flames, however, remains complicated by Treliving’s abrupt exit from Calgary last spring.)
Absent Markstrom, and with Linus Ullmark going to Ottawa on Monday, it’s become unlikely that the Leafs will be able to address their need in goal through a trade. Nashville has given teams the impression that they will hang onto Juuse Saros, the other top goaltender who seemed to be in play this summer.
Which means the Leafs are almost certainly going to be left looking for a tandem goaltender in free agency. Laurent Brossoit, who has put up strong numbers in limited action the past few years, remains one likely option, but Panthers backup Anthony Stolarz, Nashville’s Kevin Lankinen, and Cam Talbot, last year’s No. 1 in L.A., are others.
The league’s goaltending market is really in flux right now with all of the movement (which also included the Capitals trading Darcy Kuemper to L.A.), but the two-year, $2.5 million a season that Alex Nedeljkovic signed for to stay in Pittsburgh should be viewed as the right ballpark for those top UFA options. But their AAV could get nudged up if bidding wars materialize.
The talk of Joseph Woll being on the verge of an extension, however, shouldn’t come as a surprise, as the organization remains very high on his future. They won’t want to block his path with any addition they make, now that Markstrom and others are unavailable, so expect a short-term commitment with any signing.
2. Judging from all the conversations Treliving is having around the league, goaltending isn’t the Leafs’ top priority.
What is shouldn’t be a huge surprise. The Leafs are determined to improve their defence, and the right side of their defence, most of all.
Ideally, the Leafs would address the need through trade rather than pay a premium for multiple defenders in free agency. The problem? They have a limited pool of assets to deal from — their first-round pick in the coming draft, pending RFAs Timothy Liljegren and Nick Robertson, and potentially, Mitch Marner.
Toronto will be in the mix for all of the top UFA defencemen on July 1. Chris Tanev and Nikita Zadorov are two leading candidates, although both may re-sign with their current teams in Dallas and Vancouver. Brady Skjei and Brandon Montour will also likely field offers from every team looking to add D.
Tanev, not surprisingly, holds the most appeal to the Leafs.
One path they may look to take with the 34-year-old in particular is to extend the term of their offer to him. Instead of offering the four-year contract Tanev is eyeing, the Leafs could increase the number of years on the deal to bring down the cap hit to a more favourable number.
That would help the team this summer and beyond, all while knowing that Tanev would be unlikely to play the full term of the deal.
One other top-four option for Toronto that hasn’t received much fanfare to date would be Kings blueliner Matt Roy, a right shot who logged 21 minutes a night this past season and brings a solid two-way game. It’s believed the Leafs are interested, despite the fact he could receive close to $6 million a season on a long-term deal.
The prices for free-agent defencemen are likely to be high in general. Some teams have so much cap space right now that they could pursue a strategy of offering short-term contracts with high AAVs to win bidding wars.
The Leafs have nearly $20 million to spend this offseason, but that includes new contracts for their three RFAs (Liljegren, Robertson and Connor Dewar) and the need to sign at least one goaltender, two defencemen and a forward.
(One under-the-radar challenge facing the Leafs is the possibility of a pricey award for Liljegren in arbitration. It may make moving him this summer difficult.)
It will be tight, but it’s possible Treliving is going to be able to add two impact defencemen with those dollars. Or one big swing RD and one familiar face to play deeper in the lineup (Joel Edmundson or Ilya Lyubushkin) who will come a bit later and cheaper in free agency.
Though Jake McCabe played his best hockey on the right side last season, he’s likely to land back on the left next season — assuming the Leafs can find the righties they desire this summer.
3. The other somewhat surprising pursuit for the Leafs in free agency is going to be bolstering what they have on the wing. In an ideal world, they would like to add a centre, but the market is thin on great options.
It feels unlikely they’ll be in on the very top names on the wing, given their other needs and limited cap space, but the second-tier group of talent is getting Treliving’s attention.
Two former Blues who played under new coach Craig Berube, David Perron and Dakota Joshua, are two players the Leafs like. So is Jake DeBrusk. Those three are also indicative of the type of hard-nosed and playoff-ready reinforcements they will try to add up front to play with Auston Matthews, William Nylander and John Tavares.
The Leafs have a lot of forwards under contract, especially once they’ve signed their RFAs, but with Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi looking likely to head to the open market on Monday, that’s two players who played in the top six most of last season and produced a combined 90 points that need to be replaced somehow.
Easton Cowan can only do so much.
The Leafs aren’t against bringing Bertuzzi and Domi back but want to keep the bulk of their cap space available heading into July 1 for defence. Their return to Toronto may hinge on being able to circle back after the initial wave of UFA signings takes place around the league on Monday.
4. The wild card in all of this is — yes, we know, you’re tired of hearing about this — what happens with Mitch Marner. If he’s dealt, it could fill one of the needs mentioned above. It could also open up more cap space.
And it could leave them even thinner on the wing and in terms of scoring punch.
Based on what we’re hearing, the Leafs — in their exploration of a Marner trade through calls to teams around the league — are already getting a good sense of the challenges involved with making this deal.
One, in particular, seems to be a lack of teams that a) Marner would conceivably accept a trade to that can b) accommodate his $10.9 million cap hit for next season and c) are willing to send back piece(s) the Leafs would find attractive, which would ideally include an impact defenceman.
There’s also the extension that Marner and his agent, Darren Ferris, would have to work out with said team, assuming that Marner even consents to the trade.
The timeline alone seems to be working against a trade, as does the fact his camp continues to broadcast that they have no intention of waiving a no-movement clause to facilitate a deal.
But, as mentioned, the Leafs are certainly exploring all of their options throughout the lineup right now, including what might be available in return for Marner.
5. The Leafs currently have $52 million in cap space for the summer of 2025. And just six forwards, two defencemen and no goaltenders signed.
Free agency is obviously going to impact this, as any UFA goalie or defencemen they bring in are likely to have some term. Extensions for Woll and someone like McCabe will also eat away at that abundance.
Even with those hypothetical contracts included, however, they’re looking at $30 million to play with, two goalies and most of the blue line under contract, and some huge, huge holes up front.
It would be a mistake for the Leafs to look past this season, given their core remains in their prime, but they’re likely to be even bigger players in the silly season a year from now, regardless of what they do this week.
The Core Four might get one more kick at the can, thanks to all those NMC, but the Leafs will have the chance to dramatically reshape their core over the next 13 months, no matter what.
(Top photo of Chris Tanev: Ashley Potts / NHLI via Getty Images)
