The tough thing with a tournament as short as 4 Nations Face-Off is there is zero margin for error.

Sweden lost two tight games in overtime and is essentially eliminated already. Canada, meanwhile, desperately needs a regulation win against the plucky Finns on Monday to secure its ticket to the final.

So we’re left analyzing two very close hockey games and drawing big conclusions from fairly small errors. In this case, evaluating Canada’s goaltending after just two starts.

Jordan Binnington has allowed only five goals in 124 minutes played, which under normal circumstances would be fine. His 43 saves on 48 shots is good for an .896 save percentage, which is underwhelming but actually ranks second best in the tournament to Connor Hellebuyck’s .957 for the Americans.

My biggest concern, however, is Binnington has been allowing freebies while playing behind a largely airtight Canadian defense.

One came against Sweden on a non-threatening Lucas Raymond shot. The other was this Jake Guentzel goal that gave the U.S. life early on Saturday.

TIE. GAME.

Jake Guentzel goes five-hole on Jordan Binnington! 🇺🇸#4Nations | @TBLightning

pic.twitter.com/8yCCwoFH5u

— NHL Network (@NHLNetwork) February 16, 2025

With Binnington’s team allowing only 3.77 expected goals against, by far the best mark in the tournament, he’s been beaten for 1.23 extra goals.

It’s definitely not a lot, but in an event like this, it very well could be the difference between beating Sweden in regulation or beating them in overtime. Or in getting the U.S. to overtime or not in a low-scoring affair.

It is also potentially the difference between winning it all and going home early.

— Data courtesy MoneyPuck

Ultra-low-scoring affairs aren’t new in international play. Dominik Hasek and the Czechs needed only seven goals over three elimination games to win gold at the 1998 Olympics because they allowed just two goals. The Canadian team in Sochi in 2014 was similarly a defensive juggernaut, winning gold with only six goals in the three elimination games.

Carey Price was beaten only once combined between the quarterfinals, semis and final.

Sometimes, you have to win these games 2-1 or 1-0. It certainly doesn’t feel like Hellebuyck and the Americans are going to give up much in the final, not with how well they defended with the lead on Saturday. And there’s a reason he’s going to be the rare goalie who ends up a Hart Trophy candidate at season’s end.

“I haven’t liked a lot of the goals (Binnington has allowed),” said Rob Gherson, a former pro goalie and current coach who has been analyzing the netminders’ performances at 4 Nations. “In the regular season, I think it’s a fine performance. Last night, he was beaten by a better goalie. For a tournament like this, or a playoff series, where every play is magnified, I think goaltending has been an issue.”

As has been well-documented, Canada doesn’t have the luxury of a Hasek, Price or Hellebuyck. And, frankly, the only pause I would have in swapping out Binnington is it’s not clear Canada’s alternatives are vastly, definitively better.

In fact, since the 4 Nations rosters were named, all three of Canada’s goalies have struggled.

Binnington has only eight wins in the last 20 games he has played, with an .894 save percentage that ranks 27th among goalies with 15 appearances in that span. Adin Hill’s only narrowly ahead at .900. And Sam Montembeault is actually trailing Binnington over that time frame with .893.

In goals saved above expected, they rank 41st, 31st and 16th, respectively, in that span.

Canada’s best goalies this season, meanwhile, aren’t on the team. In fact, Logan Thompson and Mackenzie Blackwood sit first and second in GSAx since the roster was determined.

With those two not an option, we’re left picking from the three they do have available. Where I would give Hill the advantage is he has played in a more similar environment to these games more recently than Binnington.

The assignment as Team Canada’s goaltender is not to try and steal a game for a 25th-place NHL team like the St. Louis Blues. It’s also a tough assignment for a goalie who hasn’t played in the playoffs since 2022 and hasn’t been out of the first round since winning the Stanley Cup six years ago.

Hill’s big-game experience came less than two years ago. He was fantastic in going 11-4-0 with a .932 save percentage behind a Vegas Golden Knights team that really wasn’t giving up many high-danger chances on their Cup run, which is probably a closer situation to this one than what Binnington is used to lately.

The reality is that, statistically, there’s not a lot separating Binnington, Hill and Montembeault in the NHL in recent seasons. The data we do have, however, puts the others ahead of Binnington.

Over the past three years, Montembeault actually has the best analytical profile, ranking seventh among regular starters in the NHL in goals saved above expected (0.40 per 60 minutes). Hill is 22nd (0.26) and Binnington 33rd (0.15), which puts him behind every other goalie who has played so far in this event.

The other country’s starters for Monday’s games rank first (Hellebuyck), second (Linus Ullmark) and 15th (Kevin Lankinen) in that stat.

The good news for Canada is its path to winning the 4 Nations is still relatively straightforward. The Canadians should be able to dominate a Finnish team that is missing three blueliners (including Miro Heiskanen) from an already weaker group, and Canada’s depth up front and on the back end should be able to overcome shortcomings in goal.

What Canada can’t have, however, is any more gimme goals in the championship game, which is why I would take Monday to give someone else a chance to take over. The margins are slim, but Hill has played in more big games lately, has won more frequently more recently and has saved more goals above expected over a fairly large sample size.

I suspect Hockey Canada will stick with the safe choice by giving Binnington another start, just as it made safe choices in leaving Thompson, Blackwood and some of the other Canadians who are having strong seasons around the league at home.

But it might end up costing Canada in an event where one bad goal against could mean everything.

(Photo of Jordan Binnington: Minas Panagiotakis / Getty Images)