The UK is finally experiencing some settled weather after days of heavy and persistent rain – but there could be worse to come next week.
Large parts of England and Wales were hit with intense downpours at the start of the week and Met Office figures showed 10 English counties experienced their wettest September on record.
Areas across England suffered heavy rain, high winds and flooding in recent weeks, with hundreds of properties and farmland flooded and widespread travel disruption with roads closed and rail services suspended.
A more unsettled outlook is looking likely over the weekend but next week may see the remnants of Hurricane Kirk hit British shores – bringing strong winds and heavy rain with it.
Hurricane Kirk is currently over the Atlantic Ocean and the US National Hurricane Center has already named it a category three storm – meaning it has winds of 111 to 130mph.
It has seen winds of up to 125mph already and it is expected to strengthen over the coming days.
Hurricane #Kirk continues to intensify, now sustaining 125 mph winds around a 952 mbar core. His latest forecast cone brings him to a strength of 150 mph by Friday—which would be just ~7 mph short of Cat 5 status. Following the insanity of Beryl in June, it looks like this is… pic.twitter.com/wy3GB6pnIc
— Backpirch Weather (@BackpirchCrew) October 3, 2024
Hurricane Kirk is not directly heading towards the UK. However, its impacts could still be felt in the country from Wednesday or Thursday next week.
If the system does cross the UK, it would retain its name from the Atlantic – but would be referred to as ‘ex-Hurricane Kirk’ as it would have lost its hurricane strength by the time it reaches here.
However, the Met Office says that the hurricane is causing “uncertainty” in the forecast, with the forecasters saying several scenarios are possible.
While the Met Office say it is too early to say what to expect next week, there is a chance that the remnants of Kirk will bring severe weather to the UK.
Deputy chief meteorologist Tony Wisson explained: “There are complex processes involved when a hurricane undergoes what is known as ‘extra tropical transition’. This results in a lot of variability in the forecast, which means that predictability is low at longer lead times. Therefore, confidence in any one scenario is very low…
“One scenario suggests that this low pressure system could come close to, or even cross, the UK by Wednesday or Thursday next week. This would lead to heavy rain and strong winds in places.
“Another scenario is for the low pressure system to stay further west in the mid-Atlantic, keeping much of the associated rain and wind away from the UK.“
