The short grass-court season is already nearing its end, as it’s already time for Wimbledon. I already did some pre-tournament analysis of both the men’s and women’s draws. However, it’s now time to look at Day 1 of the action at the All England Club, which will take place on Tuesday, July 2nd. Keep reading for some of my favorite picks for a day that will have Novak Djokovic, Elena Rybakina, Andy Murray, Iga Swiatek and Alexander Zverev in action.
I usually have a lot more tennis predictions on the Pro Picks page. I occasionally add some picks throughout the day, as schedules can get wonky with the international nature of the sport. I also like to see how odds are moving. That said, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks. I’ll also post plays for smaller tournaments on that page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 447-452 (+29.80 units)
There’s really no world in which Norrie should be favored by this much against a solid player. Sure, Diaz Acosta will only be playing the second grass-court match of his career. However, Norrie has been absolutely miserable lately. Not only is Norrie’s 50.0% winning percentage in 2024 the lowest he has had since 2020, but the Brit is just 1-2 on grass and the one victory was a three-set win over qualifier Sho Shimabukuro in Nottingham. Norrie then lost to Jack Pinnington Jones, a Brit that followed in his footsteps by going to TCU, in his next match. All in all, there’s just not much there that suggests Norrie is close to getting back to a top-15 level. That makes it hard to imagine this being a lopsided match.
Diaz Acosta is a player that can play great attacking tennis, especially with his ability to really rip his forehand. And he’s a good enough server to work deep into a few of these sets, especially in the quicker conditions. That’s really enough for me to take Diaz Acosta to cover this massive game spread, and I’m also putting a little something on the Argentinean to win a set. I don’t think it should be available at plus-money odds.
Bet: Diaz Acosta +8.5 Games (-112 – 2 units) & Diaz Acosta +2.5 Sets (+140 – 0.5 units)
I hate to pick against two of the older guys in the sport, but I like the idea of parlaying Rinderknech and Machac to win their matches. Rinderknech is going up against Nishikori, who is just 1-2 in the three matches he has played in 2024. And Nishikori had to retire from his match against Ben Shelton at the French Open. Injuries have always been an issue for Nishikori, but the 34-year-old also hasn’t been able to prove that he’s still an ATP-level player recently. Well, Rinderknech has played five matches on grass this year, so he should have better overall feel than Nishikori. Nishikori hasn’t played a single match on grass this season. Rinderknech is also a player that can really serve, and he’s also a good player at the net. Those are the types of guys that play well here.
As for the other match, this is more of a fade on Murray. The Brit is one of my favorite players of all time, but he has had two back procedures done in the last month. And when he has been on the court, he hasn’t looked great. Machac also happens to be 2-0 against Murray in his career. So, even though Murray is the better grass-court player, I can’t pass up playing against him in some way. There will probably a push or two from Murray, who loves playing at the All England Club and will have the crowd firmly behind him. But Machac is a good player and should be able to get himself in the winner’s circle.
PARLAY: Rinderknech ML + Machac ML (-116 – 1.5 units)
Swiatek hasn’t played a single grass-court event this season. The Pole pulled out of Berlin and is now hoping to play her way into form early in the tournament. Well, Swiatek has never been a high-level grass-court player. So, it’s a bit of a risky proposition for her to do that. And that’s ultimately why I’m taking Kenin to win six games here. Kenin didn’t perform all that well on grass this year, as she went 1-2 in her three matches in Eastbourne. But she at least got her feet wet a bit. And overall, she’s actually 13-7 on grass in her career. That gives her the exact same record as Swiatek on the surface.
Swiatek should ultimately find a way to win this match, and it’s possible she does it easily. But I just wouldn’t be surprised if Kenin puts a big dent in this total in a single set. Kenin is a highly erratic player, but she’s a ball basher and takes a lot of chances. So, if she’s on for a small chunk of this match, she’s going to give Swiatek some trouble. Swiatek is at her worst on very fast courts, as she can struggle when she’s rushed. With that in mind, I’m taking a chance on this play. When these two met in Australia, Kenin won eight games in a straight-set loss. That was another match played in fast conditions.
Bet: Kenin Over 5.5 Games Won (-122 – 1.5 units)
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
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