Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he breaks down Friday’s preliminary round matchup between Latvia and Canada at the U20 World Junior Hockey Championships.
Game odds via bet365.
Canada looked sharp in pre-tournament play, authoring convincing wins over Switzerland (7-1), Sweden (4-2), and Czechia (3-2). The Canadians then managed a high-quality 4-0 win in it’s tournament opener versus Finland on Thursday.
Goaltender Carter George made 31 saves and was named Canada’s player of the game as a result. However, many of those shots came while the game was out of reach for Finland. Canada did a good job of suppressing quality chances earlier in the contest, when the scoreline was close. Finland also generated a ton of shots on the power play, as Canada took six minor penalties in last night’s matchup.
George appeared likely to garner the starts in the knockout round entering the tournament, and he certainly solidified his case in last night’s matchup. However, 17-year-old draft-eligible goaltender Jack Ivankovic will start on Friday against Latvia. Ivankovic was fabulous in four starts in the Hlinka Gretzky Cup this year, posting a 0.75 GAA and .967 save percentage.
In last year’s tournament, Canada had a massively disappointing fifth-place finish, struggling to generate meaningful offensive totals against higher-quality competition. While the Canadian brass opted to leave plenty of high-quality offensive talents at home once again, this team still appears more offensively adept than the 2024 edition, and a four-spot against a typically stout Finland defense is a good start.
Canada will look to keep its momentum moving in the right direction in this matchup, but the reality is that a game versus Latvia is unlikely to provide much insight into how Canada will fare against teams like the USA and Sweden.
Latvia has never defeated Canada in this tournament and lost last year’s matchup 10-0. Canada has scored at least 10 goals in all but one of the four meetings between the two nations.
Latvia enters this tournament with 400/1 odds to win gold, which, in all likelihood, is still far from a fair price, as a realistic goal for Latvia is simply to avoid relegation.
Based on the strength of Group ‘A’, it is highly probable Latvia will be playing in the relegation round, though the Latvians did manage to upset Germany in 2024 to earn a spot in the quarterfinals. If it comes down to a matchup versus Kazakhstan, as projected, the Latvians will likely be a fairly sizeable favorite in that matchup.
Latvia’s roster features just two NHL-drafted skaters: defenseman Darels Uljanskis and forward Eriks Mateiko. As Steven Ellis outlines in his Team Latvia preview, some of their higher-quality prospects in the tournament are not NHL draft-eligible until 2026 and 2027. That’s good news for next year’s team, but it likely won’t help Latvia compete against a behemoth like Canada this time around.
The level of goaltending that a weaker country like Latvia receives in this tournament becomes particularly important when it faces a behemoth like Canada. In all likelihood, Canada will generate upwards of 40 shots in this matchup, and Latvia will need saves on all the perimeter looks to have any chance of keeping it close.
Linards Feldbergs is back as a 19-year-old after playing in last year’s tournament. So far this season, Feldbergs holds a 2.51 GAA and .899 save percentage in 21 games with the Sherbrooke Phoenix of the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League. It’s unclear whether it will be Feldbergs or Aksels Ozols making the start in this matchup. Ozols has eye-popping numbers in the Latvian domestic league this season, but that league is considered several tiers below the QMJHL, so it’s tough to compare the two.
Latvia lost 5-1 in both of its pre-tournament matchups against Czechia and Switzerland, respectively.
It’s very unique to try and handicap a hockey game featuring a spread of 5.5 goals. By no means would I personally feel confident laying a meaningful wager on anything involving Team Latvia’s opening game of the World Junior Championship.
With that said, a spread of 5.5 does look to be fairly generous to the Latvians based on most indicators ahead of this matchup. It’s not surprising to see the betting lines have actually moved significantly towards Canada, particularly given that this game will be bet on mostly by Canadians looking to back the home team anyways.
The Latvians lost both pre-tournament matchups by four goals, to teams that feature drastically less high-end talent further down the lineup than Canada is offering. Latvia’s top units may be able to hang in somewhat respectably, but it will likely be a bloodbath when their bottom lines are on the ice in this game, trying to compete with first-round draft selections.
Canada won last year’s matchup by a margin of ten, and it looks a little more likely we see that type of blowout than oddsmakers are expecting. This year’s Canadian team looks poised to be better than the 2024 one, while Latvia’s team looks to be comparably strong to last year’s.
To some extent, Canada covering -6 will come down to its urgency level and interest in running up the score, but I do believe it will cover -6 more often than the current price of -115 suggests.
